Trump's push to save coal faces a new hurdle: his own trade war
[May 29, 2025] By
MATTHEW BROWN and MEAD GRUVER
ROUNDUP, Mont. (AP) — Former ranch hand Pat Thiele has spent years
fighting a losing battle against a massive coal mine creeping
underground toward his central Montana property.
Mine owner Signal Peak Energy sits atop a billion-ton reserve of coal in
the Bull Mountains, not far from where Thiele lives. The mine has long
seemed poised to benefit from President Donald Trump's pledges to revive
the faltering coal industry — vows the president has renewed vigorously
in his second term with new orders to deregulate mining. A Republican
tax cut bill making its way through Congress contains a special
carve-out provision allowing the mine to expand.
But Thiele and his neighbors see a glimmer of hope in another Trump
initiative, his “America first” approach to global trade. The Signal
Peak mine sends 98% of the minerals it unearths to Japan and South
Korea. If tariffs spark a trade war, they think it could inadvertently
scuttle the mine's expansion plans — an effort their legal challenges
have so far only managed to slow.
In effect, an escalating trade war could undermine Trump's goal of
saving coal.
“As long as they’ve got somebody to buy it, they’ll keep mining,” said
Thiele. “But a reaction could conceivably come from Japan and South
Korea saying, ‘Well, if you’re going to tariff our shipbuilding or our
products, fine, we’re not buying your damn coal.’”
The view from western coal country
Thiele, 77, assessed the situation as he stood atop a hillside charred
by a wildfire. The former Army Ranger who served two combat tours in
Vietnam took in a commanding view of the valley below, where his small
herd of cattle grazed.
He's a political outlier in rural Musselshell County, Montana, where
mining has been a bedrock of the economy for more than a century. It
stands to benefit more than most places from Trump's efforts, which for
the most part have only slowed coal's demise.
Eighty-five percent of Musselshell voters backed Trump in the 2024
presidential election. They viewed his victory as a reprieve from former
President Joe Biden’s anti-coal policies, said Musselshell County
Commission Chairman Robert Pancratz.
But worries tariffs could undermine coal's comeback aren't confined to
Trump's opponents.
“We’re thrilled that he’s for coal,” Pancratz said, “and I believe in
principle what he is trying to do with the tariffs is to make for more
equitable trade.”
“But there may be some fall-out, you know, unintended consequences of
all these things."
Many fear the impact a trade war could have on the local economy.
Experts say that's a legitimate worry.
Coal analyst Seth Feaster said the implications for Signal Peak and
other U.S. miners could cut two ways: Countries that don’t reach a deal
on tariffs could retaliate against U.S. exports, reducing demand for its
coal. Or countries like South Korea and Japan could be willing to use
energy supplies as leverage to reach an agreement, cementing their
status as markets for western coal.
“It’s pretty clear the administration is very coal-forward and will use
energy as a negotiating tool in whatever trade agreements it’s trying to
establish,” Feaster said.
The art of the deal?
The bulk of U.S coal mined to use as power plant fuel comes from a
handful of huge pit mines in the Powder River Basin of northeastern
Wyoming and southeastern Montana. Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon, a
Republican, pitched the state’s coal on a recent trade trip to Japan and
Taiwan.
“It’s probably a bit of a long shot, but if we don’t try, there won’t be
any opportunity at all. And I do think that both countries have come to
the realization that they can’t be 100% renewable,” Gordon said.
Signal Peak has almost 300 workers, making it a major employer in the
region. Taxes and other payments by the company account for about a
third of Musselshell County’s revenue.
Several years ago, the mine was the subject of a broad corruption
investigation that led to convictions of former mine employees and
associates for embezzlement, tax evasion, bank fraud, money laundering,
drug trafficking and firearms violations. In 2021, the company pleaded
guilty to violating environmental and employee safety regulations under
an agreement with federal prosecutors that included a $1 million fine.
[to top of second column] |
Pat Thiele connects a hose to a water tank as he fills a trough used
by his cattle in the Bull Mountains, on May 21, 2025, near Roundup,
Montana. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown)
 Signal Peak CEO Parker Phipps was
asked about the mine’s criminal record by Rep. Yassamin Ansari
during a congressional hearing last week.
“This is the kind of company that Republicans want to sell off our
federal lands to without proper review, especially of the climate
impacts,” said the Arizona Democrat. “Frankly, I think that’s a
disgrace.”
Phipps said the investigations were before his time and that the
company ultimately cooperated with authorities. The coal executive
warned the company could “begin winding operations down” at the end
of 2025 unless the expansion is approved.
Montana Republican Rep. Troy Downing, who sponsored the House
provision to allow the mine to expand, acknowledged during an
interview that the uncertainty surrounding tariffs causes
“discomfort.”
“It really comes down to, forgive me for saying this, the art of the
deal,” Downing said, referring to Trump's book touting his business
acumen. “Look at what President Trump has been doing in actually
getting trading partners to the table.”
Global coal production reached an all-time high last year,
approaching roughly 10 billion tons (more than 9 billion metric
tons) and dampening international efforts to curb emissions from
burning a fuel that scientists say is a major contributor to global
warming. Much of that growth was driven by Asia, where new coal
plants keep springing up to power expanding economies.
The U.S. coal industry, meanwhile, has been on an almost two-decade
decline as more domestic utilities switch to cleaner fuels. That
means exports account for a growing share of revenue. They topped
100 million tons last year after previously peaking under former
President Barack Obama.
Even if tariffs don’t hurt U.S. miners, efforts by U.S. coal
companies to capitalize on international demand have long been
hindered by a lack of access to West Coast ports. Hauling it
hundreds of miles by rail, then across the Pacific Ocean, drives up
the cost of exporting coal.
“Most of it’s pure geography. The coal, there’s no problem with
selling the coal, but the problem is you’ve got, you know, a
thousand miles of rail to get it to the nearest port,” said Andrew
Blumenfeld, a coal industry analyst at McCloskey by OPIS.
Signal Peak solved that problem by securing a rail route that allows
it to ship through a Canadian port in British Columbia. Trump's
rocky relationship with Canada could complicate things on that
front.
A realist's view
Weary from the long fight to save his land, Thiele has become a
realist. This isn't the first time he's had a reason to think the
Bull Mountains mine might close.
There was the 2008 financial crisis, when coal demand plummeted.
Then came the COVID pandemic that rocked economies and industries
worldwide. And the back-and-forth between Republican and Democratic
administrations in Washington has added to the unpredictability.
“When I first got involved in trying to defend myself here, I had
hopes we could actually stop the mine and close it,” he said.
Now he greets the possibility that a trade war could do what the
long legal fight couldn't with hard-earned skepticism.
“That’s a faint hope," he said.
___
Gruver reported from Cheyenne, Wyoming.
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