Trump's strength, Democrats' message and the shutdown effect. What to
watch on Election Day 2025
[November 04, 2025]
By STEVE PEOPLES and WILL WEISSERT
WASHINGTON (AP) — Tuesday marks the nation’s first major Election Day
since President Donald Trump returned to the White House, and his
leadership and policies dominated the debate in almost every race — even
though the Republican was absent from the campaign trail.
The biggest contests are in Virginia and New Jersey, the only states
electing governors this year. Trump lost both last fall, but voters in
each have a history of electing Republicans for statewide office. The
GOP candidates have closely aligned themselves with the president,
betting that his big win last year can still provide a path to victory
this time, even if the party occupying the White House typically suffers
in off-year elections.
Strong Democratic showings, meanwhile, could provide the party a pathway
back to national relevance — even if its top candidates have taken very
different approaches, from adhering to a moderate line to wholeheartedly
embracing government spending to improve voters' lives.
In New York City, a self-described democratic socialist who already has
been a target of Trump’s criticism could emerge as a national star if
elected mayor. And California voters will decide whether to redraw the
state's House map, as Democrats look to counter a push by Trump to
reshape the balance of congressional power.
Here's what to watch:
A referendum on Trump
The president did not set foot in either Virginia or New Jersey to
campaign with Republican gubernatorial candidates Winsome Earle-Sears or
Jack Ciattarelli, but both contests will likely be viewed as a
referendum on Trump's job so far.
Over the last year, his tariffs rocked the global economy, his “big,
beautiful” budget bill threatened rural hospitals and health insurance
coverage for millions, he enacted massive cuts to the federal workforce
and he sent the National Guard to multiple American cities.
The president endorsed Ciattarelli in New Jersey’s governor's race, but
held only a pair of tele-town halls on his behalf, including one Monday
night. Trump also did an Election Night eve tele-town hall for Virginia
Republican candidates, but he did not mention Earle-Sears, speaking
mostly in favor of the GOP candidate for attorney general. Earlier in
the campaign, Trump gave Earle-Sears only a half-hearted endorsement,
saying he supported the GOP candidate for governor though he did not use
her name. Earle-Sears was nonetheless a fierce defender of Trump and his
policies, just as Ciattarelli was in New Jersey.
Despite Trump's distance, a good night for Republicans would almost
certainly be viewed as a political victory for Trump and his “Make
America Great Again” policies. A bad night for the GOP would give
Democrats a strong — though perhaps fleeting — start heading into
midterms that are still a year away.
A new Democratic playbook?
Tuesday offers a test of two very different Democratic philosophies on
display from candidates: toeing a moderate line or fully embracing
far-left progressivism. But it also presents a scenario where both, or
neither, could be successful — making drawing conclusions going forward
more difficult.
The party's candidates for governor, New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill and
former Rep. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, have focused largely on the
economy, public safety and health care, distancing themselves from some
of the Democratic Party's far-left policies.
A growing collection of Democratic leaders believe the moderate approach
holds the key to the party's revival after the GOP won the White House
and both congressional chambers last year. Tuesday could be a key
indicator of whether they're right.
Both Sherrill and Spanberger have downplayed their support for
progressive priorities, including LGBTQ rights and resistance against
Trump's attack on American institutions. Spanberger rarely even mentions
Trump's name on the campaign trail.
Both also have resumes that might appeal to the middle.
Sherrill spent a decade as an active-duty helicopter pilot for the Navy
before entering Congress, while Spanberger is a former CIA case officer
who spent years abroad working undercover. They have played up their
public safety backgrounds as a direct response to the GOP's attack that
Democrats are soft on crime.
Above all, the Democrats have focused on rising costs such as groceries,
energy and health care, which Trump has struggled to control.
A new star for Democrats (and Republicans) in New York City
That approach is far different from New York City's mayoral race, where
progressives are energized by Zohran Mamdani, a 34-year-old Muslim state
legislator who identifies as a democratic socialist and backs radical
changes to address economic inequality.
His bold agenda and inspirational approach have attracted thousands of
volunteers in New York and brought the likes of Vermont Sen. Bernie
Sanders and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez to campaign on his
behalf. It has also spooked some business leaders and voices in the
Jewish community, who otherwise support Democrats but oppose some of
Mamdani's past statements about personal wealth accumulation and Israel.
Mamdani has been locked in a caustic race against former Gov. Andrew
Cuomo, who is running as an independent after losing the Democratic
primary to Mamdani. Republican Curtis Sliwa is looking for a huge upset.
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New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani speaks during a
rally, Oct. 26, 2025, in New York. (AP Photo/Heather Khalifa, File)
And while many progressives are thrilled, some Republicans in
Washington are also quietly rooting for a Mamdani victory.
Republican campaign committees have already launched attack ads
against more than a dozen vulnerable House Democrats in New York and
New Jersey linking them to Mamdani and his far-left politics.
Trump endorsed Cuomo, posting online Monday evening: “Whether you
personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you really have no choice. You
must vote for him, and hope he does a fantastic job. He is capable
of it, Mamdani is not!”
That's after Trump derided Mamdani nearly every day. GOP operatives
are also giddy about the opportunity to use him to attack many more
Democrats closer to next year's midterm elections — just as they
have done with progressive Democrats such as House “squad” members
like Ocasio-Cortez and Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar.
The shutdown effect
Election Day comes in the midst of a federal government shutdown
that has already spanned more than a month. Both parties in Congress
blame each other, and there is no end in sight.
Will it matter?
Virginia is home to more than 134,000 federal workers, many of whom
have been furloughed or are being forced to work without pay. New
Jersey has nearly 21,000 federal employees, according to the
nonprofit Partnership for Public Service, out of a total of more
than 2 million such government employees nationwide.
Either number is more than enough to swing a close election.
At the same time, millions of people may be losing critical food
assistance from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or
SNAP, offering voters another urgent reason to express their
displeasure.
Polling shows that Republicans, who control Congress and the White
House, are getting slightly more blame than Democrats — though there
is plenty of frustration aimed at both sides.
Trump has taken the extraordinary step of calling on the Senate to
scrap filibuster rules requiring a 60-vote minimum on major
legislation to try and force the government to reopen — even though
his party’s leadership considers that a nonstarter.
A test for the Trump realignment
While Trump lost Virginia and New Jersey last fall, there were
significant shifts to the right in both states. In New Jersey,
Trump's 16-point loss in 2020 shrunk to less than 6 points in 2024.
Those shifts were fueled by Trump's increasing popularity among
traditional Democratic loyalists: labor union members, Black men,
Hispanic voters and younger people. Democrats are particularly
vulnerable in New Jersey, which has among the largest percentage of
labor union households in the nation.
If those pro-Trump trends continue this week, Democrats could be in
trouble.
But Trump is not on the ballot, of course. And the Trump coalition —
especially lower-propensity voters — has not typically shown up in
the same numbers in non-presidential years.
Democrats are cautiously optimistic given that Trump did not
campaign aggressively in either state, a move driven both by the
president’s weak standing and his allies’ concerns about the
Republican candidates’ viability — especially in Virginia.
At the same time, the biggest star in Democratic politics, former
President Barack Obama, rallied voters in New Jersey and Virginia
over the weekend.
Pennsylvania and California and the future of elections
Pennsylvania voters will decide whether three state Supreme Court
justices supported by Democrats will serve another term.
The outcome may shape the seven-member high court in the nation’s
most populous swing state, and may have implications for key cases
involving redistricting and balloting for midterm elections and the
2028 presidential race.
The incumbents aren’t listed by party affiliation. The ballot merely
asks voters to cast a yes-or-no vote. But spending on the race is
likely to exceed $15 million, indicating how important it is to
Democrats and Republicans in Pennsylvania and beyond.
In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom, frequently mentioned as a 2028
presidential hopeful, is leading a charge to redraw congressional
maps to give Democrats as many as five more House seats in upcoming
elections.
The push is the centerpiece of a Democratic effort to counter new
Republican maps in Texas and elsewhere that were drawn to boost the
GOP’s chances in next year’s fight to control Congress. In order for
the new maps to count in 2026, however, voters will first have to
approve a yes-or-no ballot question known as Proposition 50.
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