China's diesel trucks are shifting to electric. This could change global
LNG and diesel demand.
[November 19, 2025] By
ANIRUDDHA GHOSAL
HANOI, Vietnam (AP) — China is replacing its diesel trucks with electric
models faster than expected, potentially reshaping global fuel demand
and the future of heavy transport.
In 2020, nearly all new trucks in China ran on diesel. By the first half
of 2025, battery-powered trucks accounted for 22% of new heavy truck
sales, up from 9.2% in the same period in 2024, according to Commercial
Vehicle World, a Beijing-based trucking data provider. The British
research firm BMI forecasts electric trucks will reach nearly 46% of new
sales this year and 60% next year.
Heavy trucks carry the lifeblood of modern economies. They also
contribute significantly to global emissions of carbon-dioxide: In 2019,
road freight generated a third of all transport-related carbon
emissions.
Trucking has been considered hard to decarbonize since electric trucks
with heavy batteries can carry less cargo than those using energy-dense
diesel. Proponents of liquefied natural gas have viewed it as a less
polluting option while technology for electric heavy vehicles matures.
Liquefied natural gas, or LNG, is natural gas cooled to a liquid fuel
for easy storage and transport.
China’s trucking fleet, the world’s second-largest after the U.S., still
mainly runs on diesel, but the landscape is shifting. Transport fuel
demand is plateauing, according to the International Energy Agency and
diesel use in China could decline faster than many expect, said
Christopher Doleman, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics
and Financial Analysis.
Electric trucks now outsell LNG models in China, so its demand for
fossil fuels could fall, and "in other countries, it might never take
off,” he said.
Costs fall in China’s electric truck pivot
The share of electrics in new truck sales, from 8% in 2024 to 28% by
August 2025, has more than tripled as prices have fallen. Electric
trucks outsold LNG-powered vehicles in China for five consecutive months
this year, according to Commercial Vehicle World.
While electric trucks are twice to three times more expensive than
diesel ones and cost roughly 18% more than LNG trucks, their higher
energy efficiency and lower costs can save owners an estimated 10% to
26% over the vehicle’s lifetime, according to research by Chinese
scientists.
“When it comes to heavy trucks, the fleet owners in China are very
bottom-line driven,” Doleman said.
Early sales were buoyed by generous government incentives like a 2024
scheme for truck owners to trade in old vehicles. Owners can get up to
about $19,000 to replace older trucks with newer or electric models.
Investments in charging infrastructure are also boosting demand for
electric trucks.
Major logistics hubs, including in the Yangtze River Delta, have added
dedicated charging stations along key freight routes. Cities like
Beijing and Shanghai have built heavy-duty charging hubs along highways
that can charge trucks in minutes.
CATL, the world’s largest maker of electric vehicle batteries, launched
a time-saving battery-swapping system for heavy trucks in May and said
it plans a nationwide network of swap stations covering 150,000
kilometers (about 93,000 miles) out of China's 184,000 kms (about
114,000 miles) of expressways.
Global energy markets will feel the impact
The surge in sales of electric trucks is cutting diesel use and could
reshape future LNG demand, analysts say.
Diesel consumption in China, the second-largest consumer of the fuel
after the U.S., fell to 3.9 million barrels per day in June 2024, down
11% year-on-year and the largest drop since mid-2021, partly reflecting
the shift to LNG and electric trucks, according to the U.S. Energy
Information Administration.
“The rise of China’s electric truck sector is one of the more
under-reported stories in the global energy transition, especially given
its potential impact on regional diesel trade flows,” said Tim Daiss of
APAC Energy Consultancy.
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A driver walks past electric trucks at a charging station on the
outskirts of Beijing, on Nov. 14, 2025. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
 LNG truck sales peaked in Sept 2023
and March 2024 after China eased transport restrictions imposed
during the COVID-19 pandemic, said Liuhanzi Yang of ICCT Beijing. By
June 2025, sales had slipped 6% as electric trucks gained ground.
Shell’s 2025 LNG Outlook projects that demand for imported LNG in
China, the world’s largest LNG importer, will continue to rise
partly due to LNG trucks. It also suggests LNG trucking might expand
to other markets, such as India.
China’s electric trucks are already cutting oil demand by the
equivalent of more than a million barrels a day, estimates the New
York-based research provider Rhodium Group.
But Doleman views LNG as a “transitional step” unlikely to be seen
apart from in China, where a vast pipeline infrastructure, abundant
domestic gas production and byproducts like coke oven gas created
conditions conducive to LNG-fueled trucking not seen elsewhere.
China’s is planning new emission standards for vehicles that will
limit multiple pollutants and set average greenhouse gas targets
across a manufacturer’s fleet. This will make it “almost impossible”
for companies relying solely on fossil-fuel vehicles to comply, Yang
said.
A 2020 ICCT study found LNG-fueled trucks cut emissions by 2%-9%
over 100 years but can be more polluting in the short run due to
leaks of methane, a potent planet-warming gas that can trap more
than 80 times more heat in the atmosphere in the short term than
carbon dioxide.
Modern diesel now nearly matches LNG in air-quality performance.
China is eyeing the global electric truck market
Already the world’s largest exporter of passenger cars, China is
turning its sights to the global electric truck market.
Chinese automakers have kept costs down and sped up truck
manufacturing while ensuring different parts work seamlessly
together with in-house production of most key components, from
batteries to motors and electronics, said Bill Russo, founder and
CEO of the Shanghai-based consultancy Automobility Limited.
China's hyperactive delivery industry, particularly urban freight
trucks, has been an early proving ground for these vehicles, he
noted.
In 2021-2023, exports of Chinese heavy-duty trucks including EVS to
the Middle East and North Africa grew about 73% annually while
shipments to Latin America rose 46%, according to a McKinsey &
Company report. The share of electrics is expected to grow, though
limited charging infrastructure could pose a challenge.
China's Sany Heavy Industry says it will start exporting its
electric trucks to Europe in 2026. It is has already exported some
electric trucks to the U.S., Asian countries like Thailand and
India, and the the United Arab Emirates, among others.
In June, Chinese EV maker BYD broke ground in Hungary for an
electric truck and bus factory, with an eye toward a mandatory
European target of cutting carbon emissions from new trucks by 90%
by 2040 compared to 2019 levels.
Prices of zero-emission trucks in Europe must roughly halve to
become affordable alternatives to diesel, according to another study
in 2024 by McKinsey.
Volvo told The Associated Press that it didn't comment on
competitors but welcomed “competition on fair terms," while Scania
did not respond.
“Things are shaking up,” Daiss said.
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