Late-arriving September jobs report likely shows that hiring was
sluggish but layoffs few
[November 20, 2025] By
PAUL WISEMAN
WASHINGTON (AP) — During the 43-day U.S. government shutdown, investors,
businesses, policymakers and the Federal Reserve were groping in the
dark for clues about the health of the American job market. The federal
workers who collect data on hiring and unemployment had been furloughed
and couldn’t do their jobs.
Now that the shutdown is over, the Labor Department will finally let a
little light in Thursday, releasing jobs numbers for September — nearly
seven weeks after they were due.
Economists expect to see a continuation of what was happening in the
spring and summer: weak hiring but few layoffs, an awkward pairing that
means Americans who have work mostly enjoy job security – but those who
don’t often struggle to find employment.
Economists predict that U.S. employers added 50,000 jobs in September,
unimpressive but an improvement on the paltry 22,000 they added in
August. And the forecasters expect that the unemployment rate remained
at a low 4.3%, according to a survey by FactSet.
Normally the stock and bond markets would shrug off such old data, said
market strategist Matthew Ryan at the financial services firm Ebury. But
investors are so desperate for fresh economic news that “we expect
volatility around the report to be extremely high.’’
The job market has been strained this year by the lingering effects of
high interest rates engineered to fight a 2021-2022 spike in inflation
and uncertainty around Trump’s campaign to slap taxes on imports from
almost every country on earth and on specific products — from copper to
foreign films.
Labor Department revisions in September showed that the economy created
911,000 fewer jobs than originally reported in the year that ended in
March. That meant that employers added an average of just 71,000 new
jobs a month over that period, not the 147,000 first reported.
Since March, job creation has slowed even more — to an average 53,000 a
month. During the 2021-2023 hiring boom that followed COVID-19
lockdowns, by contrast, the economy was creating 400,000 jobs a month.
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In this May 7, 2020, file photo, the entrance to the Labor
Department is seen near the Capitol in Washington. (AP Photo/J.
Scott Applewhite, File)
 Stephen Stanley, chief U.S.
economist at the bank Santander, is a bit more optimistic about
September hiring than most of his peers. He forecasts that employers
added 75,000 jobs.
President Donald Trump’s crackdown on illegal immigration is
expected to reduce the number of people looking for work, which
means that the economy can create fewer jobs without sending the
unemployment rate higher.
In the past, Stanley wrote in a commentary Wednesday, the
“breakeven’’ point for monthly job creation was seen as somewhere
between 125,000 and 150,000; but as fewer immigrants week work, he
says, the job market can remain stable even if employers add just
50,000 jobs a month, maybe fewer.
Once the September numbers are out, businesses, investors,
policymakers and the Fed will have to wait awhile to get another
good look at the American labor market.
The Labor Department said Wednesday that it won’t won't release a
full jobs report for October because it couldn't calculate the
unemployment rate during the government shutdown.
Instead, it will release some of the October jobs data — including
the number of jobs that employers created last month — along with
the full November jobs report on Dec. 16, a couple of weeks late.
That means the September jobs numbers will likely get extra
attention. They are the last full measurement of hiring and
unemployment that Fed policymakers will see before they meet Dec.
9-10 to decide whether to cut their benchmark interest rate for the
third time this year.
____
AP Economics Writer Christopher Rugaber contributed to this report.
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