Government shutdown delays release of critically important inflation
figures
[October 15, 2025] By
CHRISTOPHER RUGABER
WASHINGTON (AP) — The government shutdown is delaying another major
economic report, leaving policymakers at the Federal Reserve with a
cloudier picture even as the economy enters a challenging phase of
stubbornly persistent inflation and a sharp slowdown in hiring.
The Labor Department's monthly inflation data was scheduled for release
Wednesday, but late last week was postponed until Oct. 24. The
department is recalling some employees to assemble the data, which was
collected before the shutdown began. The figures are needed for the
government to calculate the annual cost of living adjustment for tens of
millions of recipients of benefit programs such as Social Security.
The shutdown could make things worse for agencies like the Fed if it
continues, because government agencies cannot collect the raw data that
are then compiled into the monthly reports on jobs, inflation, and other
economic trends. The September employment report, for example, which was
due to be released Oct. 3 but was not issued because of the shutdown,
was essentially completed before the government closed and could be
released fairly quickly once the shutdown ends. But October data could
be delayed much longer.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday in remarks to the
National Association for Business Economics that the central bank for
now is looking at data from the private sector, such as payroll
processor ADP, which issues its own monthly report on hiring by U.S.
businesses, to gauge the economy. It is also relying on anecdotal
reports from the hundreds of businesses that the regional Fed banks
consult with.
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 But while there are many firms that
compile jobs-related data, there are fewer alternative sources of
information to track inflation and growth, Powell added.
“We’ll start to miss that data and particularly the October data,”
Powell said. “If this goes on for a while, they won’t be collecting
it. And it could become more challenging.”
The Fed is already in a difficult spot, Powell has said, as it
grapples with two policy goals that are nearly in conflict. It is
tasked by Congress with seeking both maximum employment and stable
prices.
Right now, inflation remains above the Fed's target of 2%, with the
latest figures showing prices rose 2.9% compared with a year
earlier, according to the Fed's preferred measure. Typically,
elevated inflation would lead the Fed to raise its key interest
rate, or at least keep it elevated.
Yet hiring has also weakened considerably, and the unemployment rate
has ticked up to a still-low 4.3% in August from 4.2% in the
previous month. When the Fed's other goal of maximum employment is
threatened, it usually responds with the opposite approach: Cutting
rates to spur more borrowing and spending.
On Tuesday, Powell noted those challenges and said, “There really
isn't a risk-free path.”
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