George Springer's home run was one
of the biggest non-World Series plays in baseball history
[October 22, 2025]
By NOAH TRISTER
George Springer seized a spot in Toronto Blue Jays history when he
hit a three-run homer in the seventh inning that sent his team to a
4-3 win over the Seattle Mariners in Game 7 of the AL Championship
series.
Springer's drive to left field Monday night didn't have quite the
same impact as Joe Carter's homer that gave Toronto the World Series
in 1993, or even Dave Winfield's extra-inning double that helped the
Blue Jays edge Atlanta for the 1992 title. But for a hit that
occurred outside the World Series, Springer's was awfully impactful.
A stat called championship win probability added (cWPA) — published
by Baseball Reference — measures how much a particular play
increased or decreased a team’s chance of winning that year’s World
Series. That's based on when it occurred in the game — and when that
game occurred in the overall context of the season.
Springer's homer increased Toronto's chance of winning the World
Series by 19.73%. It ranks as one of the 10 biggest non-World Series
plays since 1903. Here's the full list:
No. 10
Chris Chambliss' solo homer in the bottom of the ninth to give the
New York Yankees a 7-6 win over Kansas City in Game 5 of the 1976
ALCS. (cWPA of 18.77%)
The LCS was best-of-five before 1985, so this homer by Chambliss was
a walk-off in a winner-take-all game. It also touched off a complete
mob scene as fans invaded the field at Yankee Stadium. Baseball
Reference's cWPA data has Chambliss' drive just ahead of a similar
homer by Aaron Boone of the Yankees in Game 7 of the ALCS 27 years
later.
No. 9
Cecil Cooper’s two-run single in the seventh that put the Milwaukee
Brewers up 4-3 against the California Angels in Game 5 of the 1982
ALCS. (19.66%)
That 4-3 lead held up to give Milwaukee the pennant in a series
California led 2-0 at one point. The Angels also blew a 3-1 lead in
the 1986 ALCS.
No. 8
Springer's three-run homer in the bottom of the seventh that gave
Toronto a 4-3 lead over Seattle in Game 7 of the 2025 ALCS. (19.73%)
Like Cooper's hit, Springer's drive turned a deficit into a lead in
the seventh inning of a winner-take-all LCS game. Give Springer
extra points for erasing a multirun deficit.
No. 7
Manny Trillo’s two-run triple with two outs in the top of the
eighth, which gave the Philadelphia Phillies a 7-5 lead against the
Houston Astros in Game 5 of the 1980 NLCS. (19.79%)
This two-run lead actually didn't hold up. Houston tied the game,
but the Phillies did eventually win 8-7 in 10. So those two runs
were huge.
No. 6
Jack Clark's three-run homer with two outs in the top of the ninth
that gave the St. Louis Cardinals a 7-5 lead over the Los Angeles
Dodgers in Game 6 of the 1985 NLCS. (19.83%)
The Dodgers pitched to Clark with first base open and he made them
pay. This is the only play on this list that wasn't in a
winner-take-all game, but it sent the Cardinals to the World Series
when they were one out from a Game 7.
[to top of second column] |
Toronto Blue Jays' George Springer reacts after hitting a three run
home run against the Seattle Mariners during the seventh inning in
Game 7 of baseball's American League Championship Series, Monday,
Oct. 20, 2025, in Toronto. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
No. 5
Yadier Molina's two-run homer in the top of the ninth that gave St.
Louis a 3-1 lead over the New York Mets in Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS.
(20.71%)
After a spectacular catch by New York's Endy Chavez at the wall in
left field earlier in the game, Molina sent this ball well past it.
The Cardinals held off a New York rally in the bottom of the inning
to win the pennant.
No. 4
Rick Monday's solo homer in the top of the ninth that gave the
Dodgers a 2-1 lead over the Montreal Expos in Game 5 of the 1981
NLCS. (21.18%)
This homer — hit with two outs — ranks slightly ahead of Molina's
one-out drive. Both provided the game's final scoring.
No. 3
Johnny Bench's solo homer in the bottom of the ninth for the
Cincinnati Reds that tied Game 5 of the 1972 NLCS against Pittsburgh
at 3. (22.52%)
The Pirates were three outs from the World Series, but those never
came. Bench led off with this opposite-field drive, and Cincinnati
would score the pennant-winning run on a wild pitch later that
inning.
No. 2
Bobby Thomson's three-run homer in the bottom of the ninth that gave
the New York Giants a 5-4 win over the Brooklyn Dodgers in Game 3 of
a tiebreaker series for the National League pennant in 1951.
(35.56%)
Thomson's “Shot Heard ‘Round The World" wasn’t technically a
postseason play because tiebreaker playoffs have been considered
part of the regular season. Still, this was a winner-take-all game
for a World Series berth, and Thomson's team went from being down
two runs to winning in one legendary swing.
No. 1
Francisco Cabrera's two-run single with two outs in the bottom of
the ninth that gave the Atlanta Braves a 3-2 win over Pittsburgh in
Game 7 of the 1992 NLCS. (36.84%)
Cabrera remains one of baseball's unlikeliest heroes, having had
only 11 plate appearances during the 1992 regular season. He ranks
just ahead of Thomson. Although Thomson's hit erased a bigger
deficit, Cabrera's came with two outs while Thomson's came with only
one.
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