Brazilian farmers beef up soybean production as China halts business
with US during trade fight
[October 27, 2025] By
MAURICIO SAVARESE and THIAGO MOSTAZO
SANTA CRUZ DO RIO PARDO, Brazil (AP) — Brazilian farmer Andrey Rodrigues
wasn’t planning to beef up soybean production for next year’s harvest
until a couple of months ago, but now he’s extra hopeful. What has him
and his fellow Brazilian farmers planting more soybeans is the trade war
between the Trump administration and China that has shut American
soybeans out of the massive Chinese market.
China is actively seeking out Brazilian producers and the local trading
companies that buy Rodrigues' soybeans to sell to China have put the
word out over the past two months that they will take all they can get,
he said.
Just how much China will buy from Brazil remains to be seen, but China's
customs body said it did not import any soybeans from the U.S. in
September. It's the first time that's happened since November 2018 when
President Donald Trump launched his first trade war with China.
Brazilian beans already accounted for more than 70% of China’s imports
last year while the U.S. share was down to 21% even before the current
trade dispute began, World Bank data shows.
Rodrigues, who chairs the soybean farmers association in Brazil’s
powerhouse Sao Paulo state, is ramping up production at his Morada do
Sol farm in the city of Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo.
The U.S.-China trade war “opens an opportunity for us here," said
Rodrigues, as he kicked off the highly mechanized process on his farm on
a recent sunny day. "We need to be very aware in moments like this. Try
to sell futures for the next harvest, seize this chance now.”
Brazilian hope
Brazil’s government said that between January and August, 77 million
metric tons of soybeans were exported to China. That represents most of
the South American country's first season harvest.
During that period, China imported 17 million metric tons from the U.S.,
according to China’s customs data.
As the U.S. soybean harvest begins, there's no indication that China is
buying American.
The number of cargo ships carrying U.S. grains and docking at a major
Chinese grains port fell 56% between January and September this year
over the same period the previous year, or from 72 to 32, according to a
social media account of the state broadcaster China Central Television.
The number has fallen to zero since July.
By comparison, that port received an average of more than 40 cargo ships
from countries such as Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay since May, and 90%
of the cargo was soybeans, according to the state broadcaster’s post.
“China comes to us because of prices. Whenever they have higher tariffs
in a given country, they come to us,” said Rodrigues.
The American Soybean Association said that China’s retaliatory tariffs
on top of other taxes pushed the overall duties on U.S. soybeans to 34%
in 2025, which has driven the price of American soybeans well above
Brazil's.
Brazil's Agriculture Ministry said in October it expected the next
soybean harvest, the one that Rodrigues is planting now, to rise 3.6%,
to almost 178 million metric tons in comparison with this year's. Now,
government analysts are reviewing those figures as China's increased
demand doesn't show signs of waning.
But Livio Ribeiro, a partner at consultancy BRCG and a researcher at the
Getulio Vargas Foundation think tank and university in Rio de Janeiro,
said the Chinese interest in Brazilian soybeans at this time of the year
is a short-term move.
“(China) is retaliating against the U.S. and doing it with two
alternative potential suppliers," Ribeiro said. Brazil has an edge over
Argentina, because Lula is not ideologically aligned with the Trump
administration like Argentina President Javier Milei, he added.
[to top of second column] |
Kevin Cox stands in a cornfield on his farm where he grows soy as
well, in Brazil, Indiana, Thursday, Oct. 16, 2025. (AP Photo/Obed
Lamy)
 “The West believed the U.S. was
going to put its knee on China's neck and that they would capitulate
quickly," Ribeiro said. "I think people understand now that this is
not the game, because China has much more bargaining power.”
American pain
Kevin Cox said from his farm in Brazil, Indiana, that American
farmers have to focus on selling more soybeans to other countries
like South Korea and the Philippines while China isn't buying and
continue to invest in developing more uses for their crop at home
like expanding production of biodiesel. He said when he traveled to
China, buyers there told him that finding the lowest price was their
priority.
“China’s proved that they don’t have a problem buying them someplace
else,” Cox said.
The fear is that some farmers could go out of business as they deal
with high costs and lower crop prices. But Minnesota farmer Glen
Groth doesn't think that will happen. He said “losing the Chinese
market isn’t entirely unexpected nor is it seen as a complete
catastrophe."
“Weather changes, politics changes, and you’ve just got to deal with
it,” Groth said.
Groth said he was able to sell his crop throughout the year at
prices similar to last year with most of it floating down the
Mississippi River about 10 miles (16 kilometers) away from his farm.
“We recognize that we’re going to be an adversary at worst with the
Chinese and in a contentious relationship at best with the Chinese,”
said Groth.
Political muscle
Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is an ally of Chinese
President Xi Jinping and has pushed for China to buy more Brazilian
goods.
But many soybean farmers like Rodrigues don't care that Lula has
stood up to Trump. They credit their own work for their success, not
Brazilian diplomacy trying to expand markets for their products.
And while farmers are excited by China's interest at a time when
they usually aren't selling, an official from Brazil's Industry and
Trade Ministry cautioned that Beijing might wait before confirming
purchases for the first half of 2026, because the price is higher
now. That could be an incentive for Lula to seek other Asian buyers,
said the official, who spoke to The Associated Press on condition of
anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter
publicly.
Lula on Monday said he was confident his country and the U.S. would
reach a trade deal, saying Trump practically guaranteed it when they
met on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Malaysia on Sunday. The
American president is also expected to meet with Xi on Thursday in
South Korea, the final stop of his trip through Asia. Trump, on
board Air Force One Monday as he traveled to Japan, said “we feel
good” about working things out with China.
Rodrigues, the Brazilian farmer, says he doesn't want ideology to be
part of the debate on tariffs.
“(American farmers) are being harmed and we have a temporary
opportunity in Brazil. But let’s think more broadly. Growing and
doing well while others are being harmed is not nice. There needs to
be harmony,” Rodrigues said.
____
Savarese reported from Sao Paulo. Associated Press reporters Didi
Tang in Washington, Josh Funk in Omaha, Nebraska, and Obed Lamy in
Brazil, Indiana, contributed to this report.
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