American farmers welcome China's promise to buy soybeans, but the deal
doesn't solve everything
[October 31, 2025] By
JOSH FUNK
OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — American farmers welcomed China's promise to buy some
of their soybeans, but they cautioned this won't solve all their
problems as they continue to deal with soaring prices for fertilizer,
tractors, repair parts and seeds.
The Chinese promise to buy at least 25 million metric tons of soybeans
annually for next three years will bring their purchases back in line
with where they were before President Donald Trump launched his trade
war with China in the spring. But the 12 million metric tons that China
plans to buy between now and January is only about half the typical
annual volume.
“This is a very good thing. I’m very grateful,” said Iowa farmer Robb
Ewoldt, who is a director with the United Soybean Board. "I don’t want
to sound like a ungrateful farmer, but it doesn’t cure everything in the
short term.”
Missouri farmer Bryant Kagay said it’s somewhat "crazy” that everyone is
getting so excited about this deal when all it does is get farmers back
to where they were before this trade war began.
“I don’t know why you would go to war on trade if you didn’t expect you
could get a better outcome in the end,” said Kagay, who is part owner of
Kagay Farms in Amity, Missouri,
Deal will help farmers
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said China also agreed to remove
all its retaliatory tariffs on American ag products, which should open
the door for sales of other crops and beef. Plus, China promised to
resume buying U.S. sorghum, which is another crop largely used for
animal feed that depends on that market. More than half the sorghum and
soybean crops are exported every year with much of that going to China.
Having these promises from China should make it easier for farmers to
get the loans they need heading into next year, but Ewoldt said “I hope
the administration doesn’t think that this solves everything in the next
6 to 8 months or ten months.”
Trump had promised to offer farmers a significant aid package this fall
to help them survive the trade war with China, but it's been put on hold
because of the ongoing government shutdown. Rollins said that aid
package is still in the works, but she promised the administration is
ready to “step in the gap” and address any sort of harm the trade war
has caused farmers.
“We’ll see what the market does and we will be ready to continue to step
in if in fact, we believe it’s necessary,” Rollins said.
Kurt Campbell, a former deputy secretary of state in the Biden
administration and now chairman of The Asia Group, said it's not
surprising that Trump negotiated these soybean purchases because they
will benefit one of his core constituencies in rural America.
[to top of second column] |
Rodney Egger harvests soybeans with a combine on Wednesday, Oct. 22,
2025, south of Lincoln, Neb. (Arthur H. Trickett-Wile/Lincoln
Journal Star via AP)
 “Its key deliverables appear to be
things that matter greatly to President Trump in the short term,
notably progress on fentanyl and increased sales of soybeans from
congressional districts that matter to the Republican party,”
Campbell said.
China is the biggest soybean market
China is the world's largest buyer of soybeans. It had been
consistently buying about one quarter of the American crop in recent
years. China bought more than $12.5 billion worth of the nearly
$24.5 billion worth of U.S. soybeans that were exported last year.
China quit buying American soybeans this year after Trump imposed
his tariffs. Yet it had been steadily shifting more of its purchases
to Brazil and other South American nations over the past decade.
Last year, Brazilian beans accounted for more than 70% of China’s
imports, while the U.S. share fell to 21%, World Bank data shows.
Argentina and other South American countries also are selling more
to China, which has diversified to boost food security.
Getting back to normal trade
Farmer Caleb Ragland, who is president of the American Soybean
Association trade group, said this agreement lays the foundation for
restoring China's traditional purchases of 25 million to 30 million
metric tons of American soybeans.
“This is a meaningful step forward to reestablishing a stable,
long-term trading relationship that delivers results for farm
families and future generations,” said Ragland, who farms near
Magnolia, Kentucky.
Indiana farmer Brent Bible said this deal with China sounds good— as
long as they actually do what they promised, unlike what happened
with the trade agreement China signed with the United States in 2020
after Trump's initial trade war. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted
trade between the two nations just as the agreement went into
effect. In 2022, U.S. farm exports to China hit a record, but then
fell.
“If we see actionable purchases and follow through by China, then
it's great,” Bible said.
___
Associated Press videographer Obed Lamy contributed to this report
from Indianapolis.
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