Pro Picks: Packers will edge out
the Commanders
[September 11, 2025]
By ROB MAADDI
Micah Parsons ran down Jared Goff for his first sack with the Green
Bay Packers.
Now, he’ll be chasing Jayden Daniels.
Fresh off a convincing victory over the two-time defending NFC North
champion Lions, the Packers (1-0) host the Washington Commanders
(1-0) on Thursday night to kick off Week 2.
The Commanders ran for 220 yards, including 68 by Daniels, in their
win over the Giants. Without Kenny Clark stuffing the middle, the
Packers still shut down Detroit’s run game.
Parsons played 45% of the snaps just 10 days after the two-time
All-Pro pass rusher was acquired from Dallas in a blockbuster deal.
He should see more action on short rest.
The Packers are 3 1/2-point favorites, according to BetMGM
Sportsbook. Since 2019, road teams are 46-31-1 against the spread on
Thursday night, including Dallas covering last week.
Pro Picks sees a close one.
Packers: 23-21
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas
Line: Chargers minus 3 1/2
Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers (1-0) sent a message with their victory over
the Chiefs in Brazil. They’re a serious contender to prevent Kansas
City from a 10th straight AFC West title. Herbert & Co. can’t afford
a letdown against Pete Carroll’s Raiders, who aren’t going to be
pushovers this season. The Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last six
road games, and 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. AFC West
opponents. The Raiders are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 Monday night
games.
Best Bet: CHARGERS: 30-23
Atlanta at Minnesota
Line: Vikings minus 3 1/2
Michael Penix Jr. played well in Atlanta’s disappointing loss
against Tampa Bay. The Falcons (0-1) need to get Bijan Robinson
going against a tough defense. J.J. McCarthy bounced back from a
slow start to lead the Vikings (1-0) to an impressive comeback win
in his first NFL start. Trends favor Minnesota. The Falcons are
1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games.
The Vikings are 5-0 ATS in their last five games played in
September. But Pro Picks expects Atlanta to benefit from Minnesota
coming off a short week following an emotional Monday night road
win.
Upset Special: FALCONS, 23-20
Los Angeles Rams at Tennessee
Line: Rams minus 5 1/2
The Rams’ ferocious defense frustrated C.J. Stroud. It could be a
rough day for rookie Cam Ward, who nearly led the Titans to an upset
at Denver. The Rams (1-0) have covered the spread in eight of their
last nine games while Tennessee (0-1) is 0-5 ATS in its last five
home games.
RAMS: 24-16
New York Giants at Dallas
Line: Cowboys minus 6
Russell Wilson and New York’s offense got off to a lackluster start
in Week 1. The Giants (0-1) have a strong pass rush that could put
plenty of pressure on Dak Prescott. The Cowboys (0-1) had a chance
to stun the Eagles in the opener but missed a few opportunities,
including rare drops by CeeDee Lamb. Dallas has won 15 of 16 and
eight in a row in the series.
COWBOYS: 24-19
San Francisco at New Orleans
Line: 49ers minus 3
The 49ers (1-0) already are dealing with several injuries, including
losing George Kittle for at least four weeks. Now, they could be
without Brock Purdy. Coach Kyle Shanhan said he's a “long shot” to
play on Sunday against the New Orleans Saints and could miss
multiple weeks because of a toe injury. A softer schedule helps. The
Saints (0-1) played the Cardinals close and their defense could
cause problems for Purdy or Mac Jones — whichever QB starts. The
Niners are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games and 6-2-1 ATS in their
last nine games vs. New Orleans.
49ERS: 23-16
Jacksonville at Cincinnati
Line: Bengals minus 3 1/2
The Bengals (1-0) are seeking their first 2-0 start with Joe Burrow
after barely beating the Browns. They must play better against the
Jaguars (1-0). Liam Coen has Jacksonville heading in the right
direction. The Jaguars are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games, but
they have lost 11 of their last 12 road games straight up.
BENGALS: 26-20
Seattle at Pittsburgh
Line: Steelers minus 3
The Seahawks (0-1) face old friend DK Metcalf for the first time.
Aaron Rodgers had a much better debut with the Steelers (1-0) than
Sam Darnold did in Seattle. The Seahawks are 0-5 ATS in their last
five games. The Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last six. Something
has to give.
STEELERS: 24-20
[to top of second column] |
Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) is chased by
New York Giants linebacker Brian Burns (0) during the second half of
an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 7, 2025, in Landover, Md. (AP
Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough)
Cleveland at Baltimore
Line: Ravens minus 11 1/2
Baltimore’s defense wasted another stellar performance by Lamar
Jackson and Derrick Henry, who also had a critical fumble against
Buffalo. The Ravens (0-1) don’t want to start 0-2 again this season.
Joe Flacco faces the team he led to a Super Bowl victory 13 years
ago after the Browns (0-1) almost upset the Bengals. Cleveland is
going to be better than expected. The Browns covered the spread in
four of the last six meetings.
RAVENS: 26-19
Buffalo at New York Jets
Line: Bills minus 6 1/2
Josh Allen and the Bills (1-0) already are on their way to another
AFC East title following a spectacular offensive display against the
Ravens. Their defense needs to tighten up. Justin Fields gave the
Jets (0-1) reason for optimism. The Bills are 8-2 straight up in
their last 10 games vs. the Jets. New York is 5-10 ATS in its last
15 games.
BILLS: 27-17
Chicago at Detroit
Line: Lions minus 6
Ben Johnson returns to Detroit after the Bears (0-1) blew a
fourth-quarter lead to spoil his head coaching debut. The Lions
(0-1) missed their former offensive coordinator in a subpar opener.
Their next loss matches their entire total from last season. Chicago
has lost 11 of its last 12 games. The Lions are 1-4 ATS in their
last five home games.
LIONS: 29-20
New England at Miami
Line: Dolphins minus 1 1/2
The Patriots (0-1) fell short in Mike Vrabel’s debut. Drake Maye had
a costly pick against the Raiders but gets a chance to face a
defense that was porous last week. The Dolphins (0-1) didn’t show in
their opener, giving up scores on all seven possessions by
Indianapolis. Miami is 9-0 ATS in the last nine games vs. New
England.
PATRIOTS: 23-22
Carolina at Arizona
Line: Cardinals minus 6 1/2
An ugly opener for the Panthers (0-1) was reminiscent of the first
half of 2024. Bryce Young bounced back last season and needs to do
it again. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals (1-0) have a chance for a
fast start. Carolina is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games. Arizona is 5-1
ATS in its last six home games.
CARDINALS: 24-21
Denver at Indianapolis
Line: Broncos minus 2
Bo Nix needs to protect the ball better this week after three
turnovers nearly cost the Broncos (1-0) against Tennessee. Denver’s
stout defense should give Daniel Jones and the Colts (1-0) a tougher
challenge than Miami did. The Broncos are 12-7 ATS with Nix.
BRONCOS: 23-18
Philadelphia at Kansas City
Line: Eagles minus 1
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (0-1) look to avoid their first 0-2
start since 2014 in a Super Bowl rematch against the team that
dominated them to ruin their three-peat hopes. Kansas City’s defense
has to play better this week against the Eagles (1-0) after getting
carved up by Justin Herbert. Philadelphia has more talent and depth
than the injury-riddled Chiefs. But Mahomes has never lost three
straight games.
CHIEFS: 26-24
Tampa Bay at Houston
Line: Texans minus 2 1/2
Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers (1-0) are coming off an
impressive-but-ugly comeback win on the road. Now, they have an even
tougher challenge against a team that’s looking to avoid a 0-2
start. Tampa Bay’s defense needs to generate more pressure. Stroud
and Houston’s offense had a difficult time against the Rams. The
Texans have won five in a row in the series after losing their first
matchup in 2003.
TEXANS: 27-20
___
Last week:
Overall: Straight up: 13-3. Against spread: 8-8.
Prime-time: Straight up: 3-1. Against spread: 2-2.
Best Bet: Straight up: 1-0. Against spread: 0-1.
Upset Special: Straight up: 1-0. Against spread: 1-0.
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