Why Newsom's push for new House maps isn't a sure thing, even in heavily
Democratic California
[September 20, 2025]
By MICHAEL R. BLOOD
LOS ANGELES (AP) — Gov. Gavin Newsom’s proposal on the Nov. 4 ballot to
reshape California’s U.S. House districts to add five Democratic seats
in advance of the 2026 midterm elections is not a sure sale with voters,
even in a state where Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by
nearly 2-to-1.
Democrats accustomed to handily winning elections in California year
after year are getting antsy.
“I wish I could tell you this election was going to be easy, but it
won’t,” the Democratic governor warned in an email to supporters last
month.
Campaigns are often quick to alarm supporters in hopes of shaking loose
donations. But there are several factors that could lead to a
surprisingly close or unexpected result on Newsom’s proposed
constitutional amendment, from voter confusion to an aversion to change.
While it’s always difficult to mobilize voters in off-year elections or
when there isn’t a presidential election on the ballot, this year may be
especially tough. The nation is in a sour mood about the country’s
future, polling shows, and distractions abound, from the assassination
of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, the ongoing wars in Ukraine and
the Middle East and Trump’s immigration crackdown.
Here’s a look at why passage of the measure isn’t a sure bet.
A vote with national implications for House control
The outcome in the election will have national implications. Newsom’s
plan to temporarily rejigger districts — earlier endorsed by the state’s
heavily Democratic legislature — is intended to offset President Donald
Trump’s moves in Texas to gain five Republican districts in the 2026
elections, when the GOP will be defending its fragile House majority.
The faceoff between the nation’s two most populous states has spread
nationally, with Missouri redrawing House maps that are crafted state by
state. Other states could follow.
The party that holds the White House usually loses seats in Congress in
midterm elections. A switch in just a few House districts could
determine which party holds power in the second half of Trump’s term:
Currently, Republicans hold 219 seats, Democrats 213, with three
vacancies.
A confused voter tends to vote ‘No’
Mail-in ballots go out early next month.
The unusual timing of the election — Newsom's blueprint will be the only
issue before voters on the statewide ballot in November — means it's
difficult to tell who will be motivated to show up. Voters will be
pondering a complicated question on House district maps — not a
candidate — and confused voters tend to be skeptical. Some voters might
recoil at the proposal, with some districts stretching across the state
and uniting rural and farming areas that typically lean Republican with
coastal areas where Democrats are concentrated.
Technically, Newsom is asking residents to temporarily set aside the
authority of an independent commission that voters created more than a
decade ago specifically for the job of drawing district boundaries — in
other words, vote against what they earlier approved. Opponents note the
new maps would, in some cases, splinter racial and ethnic communities
into different districts. And the issue doesn't necessarily break neatly
along partisan lines.
Newsom has a mixed record on ballot questions.
One recent example: Last year, voters endorsed stronger penalties for
retail theft and drug crimes, a proposal Newsom sought to derail. In
2020, Newsom backed the campaign to reinstate affirmative action in
California. It lost in a drubbing. In the same year, he backed a
proposal that could have made commercial property owners subject to
billions of dollars in additional taxes — voters defeated it soundly.
[to top of second column]
|
Opponents of California Proposition 50, also known as the Election
Rigging Response Act, a California ballot measure that would redraw
congressional maps to benefit Democrats, rally in Westminster,
Calif., on Wednesday, Sept. 10, 2025. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)
For opponents, their hopes likely rest with reassembling a diverse
coalition that supported the creation of the independent commission,
which included good-government groups and cut across party lines.
Its most prominent backer was then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, a
moderate Republican who is opposing Newsom's proposal and calls it
“insane.”
U.S. Rep. Kevin Kiley, a Republican whose Northern California
district would be recast to boost the Democratic advantage, said
opponents need to adhere to a simple message: “The people put the
(independent) commission in place. The politicians are trying to
abolish it.”
A GOP comeback in California?
A GOP candidate hasn’t won a statewide election in California in
nearly two decades, and no Republican has carried the state in a
presidential election since George H.W. Bush in 1988.
But conservatives are encouraged by last year’s elections, in which
the state displayed a slight rightward shift. Then-Vice President
Kamala Harris — a former San Francisco prosecutor, state attorney
general and U.S. senator — won the state over Trump in a landslide
but fell well short of former President Joe Biden’s vote totals in
2020. Meanwhile, Trump picked off a string of counties that eluded
him four years earlier.
Republican consultant Tim Rosales, who worked on the 2008 campaign
that established the commission, said Republicans and other
opponents would need to get a heroic GOP turnout, paired with 60% of
independents and 25% of Democratic voters, to overcome the strong
Democratic registration advantage in the state.
It could come down to which side connects with “that fairness and
equity bone that California voters have that supersedes
partisanship,” Rosales said. “When voters identify it as partisan,
that really starts to line up the sides and it gets tribal.”
A Democratic power grab, or pushback against Trump?
Distracted voters are being faced with two dueling messages.
Newsom has been framing the election as a referendum on all things
Trump, who is unpopular in liberal-leaning California outside his
conservative base.
“We can’t stand back and watch this democracy disappear
district-by-district all across the country,” Newsom said at a Los
Angeles rally.
Despite the alarmist emails from his campaign, the numbers are on
Newsom's side, so long as he can motivate Democrats. A lesson can be
seen in the 2021 recall election that Newsom beat back, after
appearing to be in danger of losing his job. His campaign succeeded
in turning the election into a proxy vote on Trump, and he won in a
rout.
Kiley said the pitch is straightforward.
“Voting ‘yes’ will return us to an era of political gerrymandering,”
the congressman said, adding that he was confident he would retain
his seat even in a reshaped district. “As long as the truth gets
out, we are going to win this.”
With millions of dollars pouring into the race and TV ads running
constantly, “I think it’s a real jump ball in this one as to who
controls the messaging,” said Bill Whalen, a fellow at Stanford
University’s right-leaning Hoover Institution.
Given Newsom's track record on initiatives, “Just because the
governor supports an idea, that doesn’t mean it translates to a
victory,” Whalen added.
All contents © copyright 2025 Associated Press. All rights reserved |
