Stephen Miran, who is also a top economic adviser to Trump, said
in remarks to the Economic Club of New York that sharp declines
in immigration, rising tariff revenue, and an aging population
all suggest that the Fed's rate should be closer to 2.5%
instead. According to projections released last week, that's
almost a full percentage point lower than any of his 18
colleagues on the Fed's rate-setting committee, an unusually
high divergence.
Miran's comments underscore the different perspective he brings
to the Fed's deliberations over interest rate policy. His
appointment has been controversial because he has kept his
position as the head of the White House's Council of Economic
Advisers while taking unpaid leave, raising concerns about the
Fed's traditional independence from day-to-day politics. His
term on the Fed's board expires in January, and Miran has
suggested he would return to the White House after that, though
he could remain on the board until a successor is appointed.
“It should be clear that my view of appropriate monetary policy
diverges from those of other ... members” of the committee,
Miran said in written remarks. “I view policy as very
restrictive,” he added, meaning that it is holding back the
economy and “poses material risks” to the Fed's congressional
mandate of seeking maximum employment.
Miran said that fewer immigrants should free up more housing and
lower rental costs, reducing inflationary pressures. And tariff
revenues — which may top $300 billion a year, according to
Congressional Budget Office estimates — should reduce the
deficit, he added. Over time, that would mean the Fed doesn't
have to keep its benchmark interest rate as high as it is now to
bring inflation down.
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