Trump's trade battle with China puts US soybean farmers in peril
[September 27, 2025] By
DIDI TANG and JOSH FUNK
MAGNOLIA, Ky. (AP) — The leafy soybean plants reach Caleb Ragland's
thighs and are ripe for harvest, but the Kentucky farmer is deeply
worried. He doesn't know where he and others like him will sell their
crop because China has stopped buying.
Beijing, which traditionally has snapped up at least a quarter of all
soybeans grown in the U.S., is in effect boycotting them in retaliation
for the high tariffs President Donald Trump has imposed on Chinese goods
and to strengthen its hand in negotiations over a new overall trade
deal.
It has left American soybean farmers fretting over not only this year's
crop but the long-term viability of their businesses, built in part on
China's once-insatiable appetite for U.S. beans.
“This is a five-alarm fire for our industry,” said Ragland, who leads
the American Soybean Association trade group.
The situation might even be enough to test farmers’ loyalty to Trump,
although he still enjoys strong support throughout rural America. If no
deal is reached soon, they hope the government will come through with
aid as it did during Trump's first term, but they see that only as a
temporary solution. Trump said Thursday he is considering an aid
package.
U.S. and Chinese officials have held four rounds of trade talks between
May and September, with another likely in the coming weeks. No progress
on soybeans has been reported.
Getting closer to harvest, “I’m honestly getting worried that the time
is running out,” said Jim Sutter, CEO of the U.S. Soybean Export
Council.
Political pressure is growing
After Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, China responded with
tariffs of its own, which now total up to 34% on U.S. soybeans. That
makes soybeans from other countries cheaper.
China's retaliatory tariffs also hit U.S. growers of sorghum, corn and
cotton, and even geoduck divers have been affected. But soybeans stand
out because of the crop’s outsized importance to U.S. agricultural
exports. Soybeans are the top U.S. food export, accounting for about 14%
of all farm goods sent overseas.
And China has been by far the largest foreign buyer. Last year, the U.S.
exported nearly $24.5 billion worth of soybeans, and China accounted for
more than $12.5 billion. That compared with $2.45 billion by the
European Union, the second-largest buyer. This year, China hasn't bought
beans since May.
With U.S. farmers hurting, the Trump administration is under growing
pressure to reach a deal with China. As talks drag on, Trump appears
ready to help.
“We’re going to take some of the tariff money — relatively small amount,
but a lot for the farmers — and we’re going to help the farmers out a
little bit” during this transition period, Trump said.
The only way most farmers survived Trump’s trade war in his first term
was with tens of billions of dollars in government payments. But that's
not what most farmers want.
What farmers expect from Trump
“The American farmer, especially myself included, we don’t want aid
payments,” said Brian Warpup, 52, a fourth-generation farmer from
Warren, Indiana. “We want to work. We work the land, we harvest the
land, the crop off the land. And the worst thing that we could ever want
is a handout.”
Farmers are looking to Trump for a long-term solution.
“Overwhelmingly, farmers have been in President Trump’s corner,” said
Ragland, the president of the soybean association. “And I think the
message that our soybean farmers as a whole want to deliver is:
‘President Trump, we’ve had your back. We need you to have ours now.’”
He said farmers appreciate the willingness to provide some short-term
relief, but what they ultimately need are strong, reliable markets. “Our
priority remains seeing the United States secure lasting trade
agreements — particularly with China — that allow farmers to sell their
crops and build a sustainable future with long-term customers,” he said.
Ragland, 39, hopes his three sons will become the 10th generation to
till his 4,500 acres in Magnolia, Kentucky. Unless something changes
soon, he worries that thousands of farmers may not survive.
[to top of second column] |
Kentucky Farmer Caleb Ragland stands in one of his soybean fields in
Magnolia, Ky., Sept. 12, 2025. (AP Photo/Dylan Lovan)
 Coming into this year, many farmers
were just hoping to break even because crop prices were weak while
their costs had only increased. Trump's tariffs, which helped make
their crops uncompetitive around the world, drove prices down
further. And tariffs on steel and fertilizer sent costs up even
more.
Darin Johnson, president of the Minnesota Soybean Growers
Association, said he still has faith in the Trump administration to
reach a good trade deal with China.
“I think where the patience is probably wearing thin is the time,”
said Johnson, a fourth-generation farmer. “I don’t think anybody
thought that we were going to take this much time because we were
told 90 deals, 90 deals in 90 days.”
China's negotiating strategy
The U.S. soybean industry grew in response to Chinese demand
starting back in the 1990s, when China began its rapid economic rise
and turned to foreign producers to help feed its people.
Protein-rich soybeans are an essential part of the diet.
While China relies on domestic crops for steamed beans and tofu, it
needs far more soybeans for oil extraction and animal feed. In 2024,
China produced 20 million metric tons of soybeans, while importing
more than 105 million metric tons.
American farmers have come to count on China as their biggest
customer, and this has “given the Chinese a point of leverage,”
Sutter said. By holding off on buying U.S. soybeans, China is seen
as trying to leverage that purchasing power in the trade talks.
“I think that’s the strategy,” said Sutter of the U.S. Soybean
Export Council. “I think that’s why China is targeting soybeans and
other agricultural products, because they know that farmers have a
strong lobby and farmers are important to the U.S. government.”
Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington,
didn’t answer specific questions on soybean purchases but urged the
U.S. to work with Beijing.
“The essence of China-U.S. economic and trade cooperation is mutual
benefit and win-win,” Liu said.
China turned to Brazil when Trump launched his first trade war in
2018. Last year, Brazilian beans accounted for more than 70% of
China's imports, while the U.S. share was down to 21%, World Bank
data shows. Argentina and other South American countries also are
selling more to China, which has diversified to boost food security.
What American farmers are doing in response
U.S. farmers also are broadening their customer base, said Sutter,
who recently traveled to Japan and Indonesia in search of new
markets. Taiwan pledged to purchase $10 billion worth of soybeans,
corn, wheat and beef in the next four years.
“There’s strong diversification efforts underway,” Sutter said. But
“China is so big, it’s hard to replace them overnight.”
Farmers are working to boost consumption at home, too. Growth in
biodiesel production has taken in some of the soybeans that were
once exported. Others are crushed to produce soybean oil and soybean
meal. The United Soybean Board is investing in research into the
benefits of using soybeans to feed dairy cows and hogs.
But Iowa farmer Robb Ewoldt, a director with the Soybean Board,
knows that such domestic uses are growing gradually.
“We cannot replace a China in one shot,” Ewoldt said. “It’s not
going to happen. We need to be realistic in that.”
___
Tang reported from Washington, and Funk from Omaha, Nebraska.
Associated Press journalists Dylan Lovan in Magnolia, Kentucky, Obed
Lamy in Warren, Indiana, and Steve Karnowski in Minneapolis
contributed to this report.
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