Traffic and trepidation in the Persian Gulf could keep gasoline prices
from dropping quickly
[April 18, 2026] By
CATHY BUSSEWITZ
NEW YORK (AP) — After U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran’s foreign
minister said the Strait of Hormuz was fully open to commercial vessels
after almost seven weeks of war, oil prices plunged 10% and the stock
market rallied Friday.
Motorists, hoping for relief at the pump, wondered how quickly gasoline
prices might fall once oil tankers stuck in the Persian Gulf were moving
again. A gallon of regular gasoline cost $4.08 on average in the U.S.
Friday, which was 37% more than before U.S. and Israel attacked Iran but
down a few cents from a week ago.
But when gas prices spike, they don’t typically drop as quickly as the
cost of crude. Even if Iran keeps the waterway open in the face of a
U.S. blockade of its vessels, it still could take months for fuel prices
to return to levels resembling those enjoyed before the war began Feb.
28, energy experts said.
The slow speed at which oil tankers travel from ports to refineries,
lingering security concerns, traffic in the strait and damage to energy
infrastructure in the Middle East are all playing a role in the elevated
price of gasoline.
“The historical observation is that gasoline prices rise quickly but
fall slowly, regardless of the particular causes of the increase,” said
Mark Barteau, a professor in the department of chemical engineering at
Texas A&M University.
“In this case, one has to take into account the time it takes for the
steps that have to happen once tankers sail through the straits – for
example, sailing time to refineries on other continents, time to ramp up
refinery operations, and time to transport some refined products by
tanker to the continent where they will be used,” Barteau said. “There
is also tendency to hedge bets because of doubts about whether and how
quickly that restoration might occur, and whether further disruptions
are possible along the way.”
Nevertheless, some energy analysts were optimistic that gas prices would
gradually decline.
Hope for lower gasoline prices
Gasoline prices were already falling slightly after last week’s
announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran,
according to motor club federation AAA.
Following the Strait of Hormuz announcement, oil prices fell by $10 to
$12 per barrel, which generally translates into a decrease of 25 or 30
cents per gallon of gas, said Michael Lynch, distinguished fellow at
Energy Policy Research Foundation, a non-partisan research institution
focused on energy and economics.
“That doesn’t happen overnight, but within a week or two, we could be
down 50 cents a gallon easily, if this holds,” Lynch said. “And part of
it is, there’s a lot of tankers ready to go. And if they all come out,
then that balances the market very quickly.”
In the wake of Friday's news, “every state will start seeing gas price
decreases accelerate at a pace of probably 1 to 3 cents a gallon for
every day or two,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at
GasBuddy, in a webcast. “And that could continue for at least a couple
of weeks.”
DeHaan estimated that the national average for a gallon of regular gas
could reach $3.45 to $3.65 by Memorial Day. But he acknowledged that
returning to lower prices could take a while.
“It might take until later this year or early next year to really fully
normalize and for some of these surcharges and impacts to reverse and
disappear," De Haan said.
Traffic and trepidation
If an agreement to end the war is reached, it could take at least four
months for shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to go back to normal,
said Patrick Penfield, professor of supply chain practice at Syracuse
University.
“Right now, you still have potential mines that have to be removed or
detonated, you have over 150 tankers that have been anchored in and
around the strait, which is causing a traffic jam, and we still have
shipping rates that are still high because of lack of shipping capacity
and war rate insurance,” he said.
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A motorist fills up his truck for over a $100 at a gas station in
Los Angeles on Friday, April 17, 2026. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)
 The leaders of France and the U.K. welcomed word of the strait's
reopening but said they would keep pushing for a way to permanently
restore freedom of navigation for vessels that rely on the narrow
passage off Iran's coast, through which about one-fifth of the world's
oil typically travels.
Ship owners would have to be convinced to trust the Americans and
Iranians, "and that seems like it’s a hard hill to climb,” Lynch, of the
Energy Policy Research Foundation, said. “I certainly wouldn’t want to
do it. I wouldn’t wanna be the first ship through or even the first five
ships through, but somebody will do it. There’s a lot of money on the
table and somebody’s going to grab it.”
If the Iranians are cooperating, the mines should not be a problem,
because Iran has a sense of where the mines are, Lynch said.
"Now, that raises the issue, are the Iranians going to cooperate, or
what do they want to cooperate?” he asked. “Are they going to demand a
couple-million dollars a ship, as is talked about? Or is Trump going to
say ‘that’s not acceptable,’ and then what’s the next step after that?”
If the strait remains open, and ships loaded with oil leave the Persian
Gulf, it could take weeks for those heavy, slow-moving ships to reach
their destinations.
“People think that once the strait opens, it’s fine. We’re done. It’ll
be better really fast,” said Richard Joswick, global head of near-term
oil analysis at S&P Global Energy. “If you open the strait today to get
a ship and bring it around and take it to Europe and run a refinery,
turn it into products, you’re talking 10 weeks of a lag time here. It
will be two to three months before things can start to get back to
normal after the straight re-opens.”
Damage to energy infrastructure in the Middle East
Many oil production facilities were damaged in the Middle East,
including refineries in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and oil tanker terminals
in the United Arab Emirates and Iran. Some repairs has been made, but
damage remains.
In addition, some countries slowed down or halted production during the
war, because without the ability to ship crude through the Strait of
Hormuz, their ships and storage tanks filled up with stranded oil.
“It’s not a light switch. Everyone’s impatient and saying, ‘Go, go go,’”
De Haan said. “But it will take time to get these flows of oil through
the Middle East fired back up again.”
Once an oil well is turned off, the pressure within the well could
change, and it can take time to restart the flow. But that might not be
a problem in some Middle East oil fields, where production can be
resumed quickly, Lynch said.
“The Saudis have done that a bunch of times. They ramp up by 2 or 3
million barrels a day, almost overnight, and there’s no problem with the
wells that have been shut in for months and sometimes years,” Lynch
said.
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Mae Anderson in New York contributed to this report.
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