Iran's leaders think they have Trump cornered, but their strategy
carries great risks
[August 08, 2026]
By JOSEPH KRAUSS and AMIR-HUSSEIN RADJY
The Strait of Hormuz is, by some accounts, named for a Zoroastrian deity
destined to emerge victorious after a 9,000-year standoff with an
adversary.
Iran's leaders feel their own victory is at hand and won't require the
same epic patience.
They are betting that military pressure will ultimately force the United
States to accept their control over the crucial waterway for global
energy — and that time is on their side.
They know about the diminishing stockpiles of key U.S. weapons such as
advanced missile interceptors. They know the war is deeply unpopular
with Americans. They know that as long as the strait is largely closed,
the price of gas and other goods will stay high ahead of U.S.
congressional elections in November. They know that trying to open it by
force would be costly and may require American ground troops. They know
their Houthi allies in Yemen could widen the war and disrupt another
major trade route.
By that logic, U.S. President Donald Trump has no choice but to
capitulate.
But Iran's strategy carries risks.
Trump points to strikes that have decimated Iran's top leadership, navy
and air force. He alternates between threatening escalation and saying
talks are going well. Iran's own economy has been battered, in part
because of a U.S. blockade. Iranians rose up in mass protests just
months ago and could do so again.
And Iran's leaders need only look to how Trump's “short-term excursion”
to the Middle East has bogged down to be reminded that wars rarely turn
out as expected.
An evolving deal could give Iran a major win
Iran says it is close to reaching a deal with Oman to manage the strait,
which runs between the two countries. But it would be conditioned on the
U.S. lifting its blockade, so even if there are no direct negotiations —
as Iran says — Trump would have to approve.
It's unclear whether the deal would allow Iran to charge fees. But it
would formalize its control over what had been an open international
waterway before the war, one that carried a fifth of the world's traded
oil and gas.
Abdolreza Davari, an analyst who once advised former President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad, said Iran's effective control of the strait has given it
leverage with the U.S. and regional countries that can help guarantee
its security.
“More than revenue from the strait, Iran wants to confirm its management
and sovereignty over the strait,” he said by phone from Tehran.
Formal control over even part of the strait would be a clear win for
Iran and a loss for the U.S., which has yet to accomplish some of its
various and shifting goals in the war.
It would also deal a blow to global norms on freedom of navigation and
set a precedent that much of the world would find disturbing — that
nations can shut down trade choke points at will.
China, which buys oil from Iran and has influence over it, said as
recently as May that “normal and safe passage” through the strait should
be restored.
Iran feels time is on its side
To borrow a phrase from Trump's own theory of geopolitics, Iran believes
it holds the cards.
“They started the war, but its end was never with them. We always decide
for ourselves when it ends," Mahdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Iran's chief
negotiator, posted on social media. “Iran is going after the enemy’s
defeat — not an agreement.”
He said a surprise Iranian attack on Jordan in July “compensated” for a
drop in oil prices. That contributed to the collapse of an interim
agreement reached in June that had offered significant concessions to
Iran, including a U.S. waiver to sell oil internationally and the
promise of broader sanctions relief.
Iran has repeatedly said the Strait of Hormuz will not go back to being
an open waterway, and that it will keep attacking ships trying to
transit without its permission. Iran's joint military command has called
it an “unbreakable red line.”
[to top of second column]
|
Women walk past a banner showing portraits of the late Iranian
revolutionary founder Ayatollah Khomeini, left, Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, center, and the late Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the U.S. and Israel strike
on Feb. 28, under a bridge in northern Tehran, Iran, Sunday, Aug. 2,
2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
“For Iran, the Strait of Hormuz has become a strategic lever for
deterrence, maintaining the regional balance of power, and reshaping
the security rules in the Persian Gulf," said Mostafa Najafi, a
Tehran-based security analyst.
That poses a major obstacle to ending the war, much less resolving
the even more complex, long-standing dispute over Iran's nuclear
program.
"The atomic issue, because of the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz,
has been pushed to the side, and in reality, that is in Iran’s
interests,” said Rahman Ghahremanpour, an Iran-based analyst.
Control of the strait would give Iran leverage if the nuclear talks
resume, he added.
It's still a risky gamble
The economic fallout from the war has spread worldwide but is
particularly acute in Iran.
U.S. and Israeli strikes have pummeled its industrial base. The U.S.
blockade has choked off much of its oil exports. Iranians are
grappling with triple-digit food inflation. Trump has repeatedly
threatened major strikes on civilian infrastructure like water and
electricity.
In December, a currency crisis sparked some of the biggest
anti-government protests in the 47-year history of the Islamic
Republic. Authorities responded with a bloody crackdown in which
thousands were killed and tens of thousands detained.
Many in Iran, including those close to its moderate President Masoud
Pezeshkian, fear it may go too far.
Mohammad Javad Zarif, who as foreign minister helped negotiate the
2015 nuclear deal, wrote in a recent essay that Iran's achievements
in the war had opened “an exceptional window for diplomacy.” But he
warned that if it doesn't strike a deal soon, then “economic
recovery will be difficult, and the possibility of internal unrest
or renewed aggression, especially after the U.S. elections, cannot
be ruled out.”
The war has already been marked by surprises.
After the first wave of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Feb. 28
killed Iran's supreme leader and other top officials, Trump
suggested it would be over in a matter of weeks.
Instead, the conflict has emboldened Iran's leaders and mobilized
their supporters. Tehran is using the strait “to show that it has
not been defeated," Ghahremanpour said. "It can increase its
legitimacy at home.”
But the strategy could also backfire. Iran's resilience has limits
and there are concerns that an economic crash could trigger unrest.
“Iran cannot continue with this strategy forever, and at a certain
point, in reality, it has to reach a deal with America," he said.
But Davari said that for now, Iran can withstand the pressure. "It’s
unlikely, despite the difficulties of the economic situation, that
Iran will retreat from its positions," he said.
___
Associated Press reporter Hend Kortam in Cairo contributed.
___
Krauss has reported from across the Middle East for more than 20
years, including postings in Cairo, Baghdad and Jerusalem. Radjy is
a Cairo-based journalist who has reported on Iran for over a decade.
All contents © copyright 2026 Associated Press. All rights reserved |
