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The
overall number of people collecting employment benefits the week
that ended Aug. 1 dropped by 22,000 to 1.78 million.
Claims for jobless benefits are a proxy for layoffs, and they've
been at a historically low range of around 200,000 to 230,000 a
week for the past year, suggesting that Americans who have jobs
enjoy unusual job security. The U.S. unemployment rate is low at
4.1%, as the economy has proven resilient despite a spike in
energy prices caused by the fighting with Iran.
"The labor market has yet to show any sign of wear and tear from
the surge in oil prices since the start of the war with Iran and
the global energy supply shock,'' Carl Weinberg, chief economist
at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a commentary.
The story is less encouraging for those trying to break into the
job market and for those who lost their jobs and are looking for
new work. Companies, scarred by worker shortages that followed
the end of COVID-19 lockups four to five years ago, are
reluctant to let go of staff; but they aren't eager to take on
new workers. Economists regularly refer to a "no hire, no fire''
job market.
Last month, in fact, companies, government agencies and
nonprofits together cut 23,000 jobs instead of increasing them,
the Labor Department reported last week. So far this year,
employers are adding 61,000 jobs a month. That is an improvement
on the 9,700 they averaged last year — the weakest hiring
outside a recession since 2002. The lingering effects of high
interest rates and President Donald Trump's erratic trade
policies discouraged companies from hiring in 2025.
Still, hiring this year remains well below the 166,00 monthly
jobs created, on average, in 2023 and 2024, let alone the
491,000 a month recorded during the 2021-2022 hiring boom that
followed pandemic lockdowns.
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