An internal document shows the Vietnamese military preparing for a
possible American war
[February 03, 2026]
By DAVID RISING and ANIRUDDHA GHOSAL
HANOI, Vietnam (AP) — A year after Vietnam elevated its relations with
Washington to the highest diplomatic level, an internal document shows
its military was taking steps to prepare for a possible American “war of
aggression" and considered the United States a “belligerent” power,
according to a report released Tuesday.
More than just exposing Hanoi's duality in approach toward the U.S., the
document confirms a deep-seated fear of external forces fomenting an
uprising against the Communist leadership in a so-called “color
revolution,” like the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine, or the 1986
Yellow Revolution in the Philippines.
Other internal documents that The 88 Project, a human rights
organization focused on human rights abuses in Vietnam, cited in its
analysis point to similar concerns over U.S. motives in Vietnam.
“There's a consensus here across the government and across different
ministries,” said Ben Swanton, co-director of The 88 Project and the
report’s author. “This isn't just some kind of a fringe element or
paranoid element within the party or within the government.”
‘The 2nd U.S. Invasion Plan’
The original Vietnamese document titled “The 2nd U.S. Invasion Plan” was
completed by the Ministry of Defense in August 2024. It suggests that in
seeking “its objective of strengthening deterrence against China, the
U.S. and its allies are ready to apply unconventional forms of warfare
and military intervention and even conduct large-scale invasions against
countries and territories that ‘deviate from its orbit.’”
While noting that “currently there is little risk of a war against
Vietnam,” the Vietnamese planners write that “due to the U.S.'s
belligerent nature we need to be vigilant to prevent the U.S. and its
allies from ‘creating a pretext’ to launch an invasion of our country.”
The Vietnamese military analysts outline what they see as a progression
over three American administrations — from Barack Obama, through Donald
Trump's first term, and into Joe Biden's presidency — with Washington
increasingly pursuing military and other relationships with Asian
nations to “form a front against China.”
Vietnam balances diplomatic outreach with internal fears
In his term, Biden in 2023 signed a “Comprehensive Strategic
Partnership” with Vietnam, elevating relations between the nations to
their highest diplomatic level on par with Russia and China as “trusted
partners with a friendship grounded in mutual respect.”
In the 2024 military document, however, Vietnamese planners said that
while the U.S. views Vietnam as “a partner and an important link,” it
also wants to “spread and impose its values regarding freedom,
democracy, human rights, ethnicity and religion” to gradually change the
country’s socialist government.
“The 2nd U.S. Invasion Plan provides one of the most clear-eyed insights
yet into Vietnam's foreign policy,” Swanton wrote in his analysis. “It
shows that far from viewing the U.S. as a strategic partner, Hanoi sees
Washington as an existential threat and has no intention of joining its
anti-China alliance. ”
Vietnam's Foreign Ministry did not answer emails seeking comment on The
88 Project report or the document it highlighted.
The U.S. State Department refused to comment directly on the “2nd U.S.
Invasion Plan," but stressed the new partnership agreement, saying it
“promotes prosperity and security for the United States and Vietnam.”
“A strong, prosperous, independent and resilient Vietnam benefits our
two countries and helps ensure that the Indo-Pacific remains stable,
secure, free and open,” the State Department said.
Documents offer a window into internal thinking
Nguyen Khac Giang, of Singapore’s ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute research
center, said the plans highlighted tensions within Vietnam's political
leadership, where the Communist Party’s conservative, military-aligned
faction has long been preoccupied with external threats to the regime.
“The military has never been too comfortable moving ahead with the
Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with the United States,” Giang said.
Tensions within the government spilled into the public realm in June
2024, when U.S.-linked Fulbright University was accused of fomenting a
“color revolution” by an army TV report. The Foreign Ministry defended
the university, which U.S. and Vietnamese officials had highlighted when
the two countries upgraded ties.
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U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, left, and General Secretary of
Vietnam's Communist Party To Lam talk during a meeting in Hanoi,
Vietnam, Nov. 2, 2025. (AP Photo/Hau Dinh, File)
Zachary Abuza, a professor at the National War College in
Washington, said the Vietnamese military still has “a very long
memory” of the war with the U.S. that ended in 1975. While Western
diplomats have tended to see Hanoi as most concerned by possible
Chinese aggression, the document reinforces other policy papers
suggesting leaders' biggest fear is that of a “color revolution,” he
said.
Further undermining trust between the U.S. and Vietnam were cuts
made to the U.S. Agency for International Development by President
Donald Trump's administration, which disrupted projects such as
efforts to clean up tons of soil contaminated with deadly dioxin
from the military’s Agent Orange defoliant and unexploded American
munitions and land mines.
“This pervasive insecurity about color revolutions is very
frustrating, because I don't see why the Communist Party is so
insecure,” said Abuza, whose book “The Vietnam People’s Army: From
People’s Warfare to Military Modernization?” was published last
year.
“They have so much to be proud of — they have lifted so many people
out of poverty, the economy is humming along, they are the darling
of foreign investors.”
While China and Vietnam have been at odds over territorial claims in
the South China Sea, the documents portray China more as a regional
rival than a threat like the U.S.
“China doesn't pose an existential threat to the Communist Party (of
Vietnam),” Abuza said. “Indeed, the Chinese know they can only push
the Vietnamese so far, because they're fearful that the Communist
Party can't respond forcefully to China (and will) look weak and it
will cause a mass uprising.”
China is Vietnam's largest two-way trade partner, while the U.S. is
its largest export market, meaning Hanoi needs to perform a
balancing act in keeping up diplomatic and economic ties, while also
hedging its bets.
“Even some of the more progressive leaders look at the United
States, saying, 'Yes, they like us, they're working with us, they
are good partners for now, but given the opportunity if there were a
color revolution, the Americans would support it,'” Abuza said.
Trump's second administration softens some concerns, but raises
more
Under Vietnamese leader To Lam, who became Communist Party general
secretary at around the same time the document was written, the
country has moved to strengthen ties with the U.S., especially under
Trump, Giang said.
Lam was reappointed general secretary last month and is expected to
also assume the presidency, which would make him the country’s most
powerful figure in decades.
With Lam at the helm, Trump’s family business has broken ground on a
$1.5 billion Trump-branded golf resort and luxury real estate
project in northern Hung Yen province. The Vietnamese leader almost
immediately accepted Trump's invitation to join the Board of Peace,
which Giang said was an unusually swift decision given that foreign
policy moves are typically calibrated with close attention to
Beijing’s possible reaction.
But Trump’s military operation to capture former Venezuelan
President Nicolás Maduro have given Vietnamese conservatives fresh
justification for their unease about closer ties with Washington.
Any U.S. military action involving Hanoi's ally Cuba could upset
Vietnam’s strategic balance, Giang added.
“Cuba is very sensitive,” he said. “If something happens in Cuba, it
will send shock waves through Vietnam’s political elites. Many of
them have very strong, intimate ties with Cuba.”
Overall, the first year of Trump’s second term is likely to have
left the Vietnamese happy about the focus on the Western Hemisphere
but wondering about other developments, Abuza said.
“The Vietnamese are going to be confused by the Trump
administration, which has downplayed human rights and democracy
promotion, but at the same time been willing to violate the
sovereignty of states and remove leaders they don’t like,” he said.
_____
Rising reported from Bangkok.
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