How Trump will use his State of the Union address to sell skeptical
midterm voters on his plans
[February 23, 2026]
By JOSH BOAK and MICHELLE L. PRICE
WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump 's State of the Union address
on Tuesday is likely to be a test run of the message that Republicans
will give to voters in November's elections for control of the House and
Senate.
The president and his party appear vulnerable, with polls showing that
much of America distrusts how Trump has managed the government in his
first year back in office. In addition, the Supreme Court last week
struck down one of the chief levers of his economic and foreign policy
by ruling that he lacked the power to impose many of his sweeping
tariffs.
Though Trump is expected to focus on domestic issues, his intensifying
threats that he may launch military strikes on Iran over its nuclear
program are casting a shadow over the address.
Here are a few things to watch as Trump tries to make his case:
The economy and immigration are no longer strengths for Trump
Trump swept back into the White House on promises to bring down prices
and restore order to immigration in America. But on both issues, public
sentiment has turned against him.
Only 39% of U.S. adults approve of his economic leadership and just 38%
support him on immigration, according to the latest AP-NORC Center for
Public Affairs survey. Those low numbers show the country is still
fretting about the costs of groceries, housing and utilities, a problem
compounded by Trump's whipsawing use of tariffs. They also show how the
public was disturbed by videos of violent clashes with protesters,
including two U.S. citizens killed by federal agents.
Since his party passed a massive tax cut bill last year, Trump has yet
to unveil major new policy ideas on the economy. In recent speeches, he
has largely offered the public reruns about his tax cuts, plans to
reduce mortgage rates and a new government website for buying
prescription drugs.
The Supreme Court ruling against many of Trump's far-reaching global
tariffs on Friday and the president vowing to use other means to forge
ahead with import taxes will only prolong the economic turmoil over
trade and prices.
“I think it makes it even more important that the speech really focus on
the economy," said Alex Conant, a Republican strategist.
Conant said between the tariff ruling and a Commerce Department report
on Friday that showed U.S. economic growth slowed in the final three
months of last year, "the president needs to bolster his economic
message.”
Blame everything on Joe Biden
The administration is trying to make the case that despite Trump's
rewiring of global trade and tax cuts, the economy is still struggling
because of choices made in 2021 and 2022 by his Democratic predecessor
Joe Biden. But Trump is also seeking to take credit for positive signs
in the current economy, such as recent stock market gains.
“Watch the State of the Union. We’re going to be talking about the
economy. We inherited a mess,” Trump said at the White House on
Wednesday.
Of course, Trump made the same kind of argument in his address to a
joint session of Congress last year, invoking the name “Biden” 13 times.
Trump's focus on foreign policy has yet to resonate politically
Despite the president's America First credo, his aggressive approach
abroad over the past year has sparked concerns among some of his
supporters about whether he should spend more time focusing on voters at
home.
Trump, who has made it clear he covets a Nobel Peace Prize, is likely to
use the speech to remind Americans of his attempts to try to broker
peace accords in global conflicts.
But in many respects, the president hasn't been extending olive
branches. Within the past year, his administration has launched strikes
in Yemen, Nigeria and Iran, along with an ongoing campaign of lethal
military strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels near South America.
Trump also shocked the world in January with a surprise raid to capture
Venezuela's then-leader, Nicolás Maduro, and floated the idea of using
force to seize Greenland.
In recent weeks, as he pressures Iran, Trump has bolstered the U.S.
military's presence in the Middle East. But he has yet to make a clear
case to voters about what his actions overseas mean for their lives.
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President Donald Trump speaks to reporters aboard Air Force One
shortly before takeoff, Thursday, Feb. 19, 2026, at Joint Base
Andrews, Md. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)
He might even minimize foreign policy in his State of the Union
despite his belief that it's been a major success.
“For as much as foreign policy has dominated his last year in
office, this speech will mostly focus on the economy,” Conant
predicted.
Vice President JD Vance offered a similar prediction, saying in an
interview Saturday on Fox News Channel that in the speech, “you’re
going to hear a lot about the importance of bringing jobs back into
our country, of reshoring manufacturing, of all these great
factories that are being built.”
He said Trump would also speak about lowering energy costs.
Trump has made the State of the Union his own
The State of the Union used to be about recapping accomplishments
and seeking to unite the country, but it increasingly reflects
divisions in society.
“What you’re going to expect is some version of a campaign speech in
which the Democrats are the villains, the Republicans he likes are
the heroes, and he is the savior not only of the nation but of the
globe,” said Kathleen Hall Jamieson, a communications professor at
the University of Pennsylvania.
Trump supporters might cherish the moment in 2020 when the president
mid-speech reunited a military family. He also bestowed the
Presidential Medal of Freedom on Rush Limbaugh, the conservative
radio host and author who died in 2021 due to complications from
lung cancer. But that moment turned off Democrats who saw Limbaugh
as a destructive figure in political media.
The reaction in the room could matter as much as Trump's words
Trump is delivering the speech, but his audience sitting in the
House chamber has a big role, too. When Trump delivered his 2020
State of the Union, then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi theatrically
ripped up a copy of the speech afterward, overshadowing much of what
Trump said.
House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York has said in a
letter to colleagues that “it is important to have a strong,
determined and dignified Democratic presence in the chamber,”
indicating that some members might choose not to attend in protest
to Trump. But there is also the possibility of Democrats razzing
Trump as Rep. Al Green, D-Texas, did in 2025, leading him to be
removed from the chamber.
If Trump in his speech lays out a fuller case for why he is using
other mechanisms in federal law to continue his tariffs, Conant said
it will be interesting to see the reaction from lawmakers.
“I think that any House Republicans that don't applaud his tariffs
are going to be featured prominently on the telecast,” he said.
State of the Unions have short shelf lives
While some presidential phrases endure, much of the rhetoric in
State of the Unions is forgettable. And with Trump — who is known
for veering off-script — there's a good chance that a stray comment
or a social media post could step on his message.
Matt Latimer, a former Republican speechwriter for then-President
George W. Bush, noted in an email that people hear the president
talk all of the time, so the State of the Union has lost much of its
luster.
A State of the Union “only matters in moments when the country is
undergoing a great trauma — a war, an attack, a global crisis — and
a president and Congress want to speak in a (mostly) united voice to
the country,” he said. “That’s not what we are experiencing now.”
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