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measure of Americans’ short-term expectations for their income,
business conditions and the job market rose four points to 72,
remaining well below 80, the marker that can signal a recession
ahead. It’s the 13th consecutive month that reading has come in
under 80.
The measure of consumers’ assessments of their current economic
situation fell by 1.8 points to 120.
Respondents’ references to prices and inflation were little
changed but remain elevated. Mentions of trade and politics
increased, while references to labor market conditions eased as
perceptions of the job market improved modestly this month.
The country’s labor market has been stuck in a “low hire, low
fire” state, economists say, as businesses stand pat due to
uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs and the lingering effects of
elevated interest rates.
Earlier this month, the government reported that employers added
a surprisingly strong 130,000 nonfarm jobs in January. Still,
the economy gained just 584,000 jobs in 2025, about one-fourth
of the more than 2 million added in 2024.
The softening job market comes even as the U.S. economy keeps
growing, often beyond projections.
U.S. economic growth slowed in the final three months of last
year, dragged down by the six-week shutdown of the federal
government and a pullback in consumer spending. The weaker
fourth-quarter growth of 1.4% followed stronger-than-expected
figures of 4.4% in the July-September quarter and 3.8% in the
quarter before that.
According to the Conference Board's February survey, consumers’
plans to buy big-ticket items over the next six months rose,
with plans to buy used cars, furniture, TVs, and smartphones
leading the way.
Home-buying expectations were little changed in February,
generally a slow time for the housing market, which has been
mired in a yearslong slump.
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