UN forecasts global economic growth of 2.7% this year, down slightly
from 2025
[January 09, 2026] By
EDITH M. LEDERER
UNITED NATIONS (AP) — The United Nations is forecasting that the global
economy will grow by 2.7% this year, slightly lower than last year's
estimate, citing the impact of higher U.S. tariffs, economic
uncertainties and geopolitical tensions.
U.N. economists predicted that growth would edge up to 2.9% in 2027.
That's still well below the average 3.2% growth between 2010 and 2019,
before the COVID-19 pandemic hurt economies around the globe. The
estimate for 2025 is 2.8%.
“A combination of economic, geopolitical and technological tensions is
reshaping the global landscape," U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres
said Thursday in a statement, "generating new economic uncertainty and
social vulnerabilities.”
But the U.N. economists said there was “unexpected resilience" to the
sharp increases in U.S. tariffs last year. This was supported by solid
consumer spending and easing inflation, which helped sustain growth, but
they cautioned that underlying weaknesses persist.
According to the U.N.’s World Economic Situation and Prospects report,
growth in Europe, Japan and the United States is projected to hold
broadly steady.
In the United States, the U.N. said growth declined from 2.8% in 2024 to
an estimated 1.9% in 2025, “as strong consumer spending and AI-related
investment were partly offset by weak residential and commercial
construction.”
The U.N. projected a very small rise in U.S. economic growth this year
to 2%, and it forecast that growth will edge up to 2.2% in 2027.
Japan’s economy is forecast to grow by 0.9% this year and by 1% in 2027
— below the 1.2% growth estimated for 2025, the U.N. said.
“Private consumption is expected to recover gradually, while exports —
particularly of automobiles — will likely remain constrained by higher
United States tariffs and policy uncertainty,” the economists said of
Japan.
[to top of second column] |
 The European Union’s economic growth
is forecast to decline from 1.5% in 2025 to 1.4% in 2026 “as higher
U.S. tariffs and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty dampen exports,”
the report said. But it projected growth will increase to 1.6% in
2027.
On a more positive note, the U.N. said some large developing
economies, including China, India and Indonesia, are expected to
continue to see solid growth.
Prospects for many low-income and vulnerable countries are expected
to remain less favorable, the economists said, though they projected
growth in the world’s least developed countries will rise from an
estimated 3.9% in 2025 to 4.6% in 2026 and 5% in 2027. They singled
out stronger economic performances in Bangladesh, Ethiopia and
Tanzania.
In East Asia, the U.N. said, economic growth is projected at 4.4%
this year, down from 4.9% last year. China’s economy, the world’s
second largest, is forecast to grow by 4.6% in 2026 and 4.5% in
2027, below the estimated 4.9% expansion in 2025.
“A temporary easing of trade tensions with the United States —
including targeted tariff reductions and a one-year trade truce —
has helped stabilize confidence,” it said.
In Africa, modest economic growth is projected, from an estimated
3.9% in 2025 to 4% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, the report said.
“However, high debt and climate-related shocks pose significant
risks," it said.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, while “the outlook remains
broadly resilient,” growth is projected to decline slightly from an
estimated 2.4% in 2025 to 2.3% in 2026 before edging up to 2.5% in
2027.
All contents © copyright 2026 Associated Press. All rights reserved
 |
