Obamacare premiums surged this year. A new analysis shows it's likely to
happen again in 2027
[July 09, 2026]
By ALI SWENSON
NEW YORK (AP) — Middle-income Americans straining to pay for Affordable
Care Act health insurance are unlikely to get relief next year,
according to a new analysis that shows insurers in the marketplace are
proposing a second straight year of double-digit premium hikes.
Across the 77 insurers in the ACA program that have submitted rate
filings that are publicly available, the median proposed premium
increase for 2027 is 14%, according to Wednesday’s analysis from the
healthcare research nonprofit KFF. The insurers cited mounting
healthcare costs, federal regulatory changes and the recent expiration
of pandemic-era enhanced subsidies as the biggest factors driving
premiums higher.
The rise in premiums adds to what already was a significant jump in
2026, when the median rate increase was 20%, according to KFF.
While most Americans in Obamacare still qualify for subsidies that
protect them from paying the full premiums, middle-class enrollees who
don't get those subsidies will face an especially stark increase in
costs. That group includes households with incomes at or above 400% of
the poverty level — about $63,000 per year for an individual or $129,000
for a family of four.
The rate increases come as federal lawmakers have proposed various
policy changes to overhaul the expensive U.S. healthcare system, but no
comprehensive legislation has amassed enough support to pass. The higher
costs are contributing to Americans’ existing worries about overall
affordability, a concern that many voters say is front of mind with
November’s midterm elections looming.
Insurers cite rising costs and a smaller, sicker covered population
Health insurers must send filings to regulators every year, explaining
what they expect to see in premium rate changes for individual market
health plans for the coming year.
Next year’s rates will be finalized later in the summer, but KFF’s
analysis looked at those in the ACA marketplace that already are public
across 16 states and Washington, D.C., to get an early glimpse at what
insurers are saying. The report measured insurers' premium increases as
an average across all types of plans — bronze, silver, gold and
platinum.
The analysis found that insurers listed rising costs across the
healthcare sector — from hospital visits to prescription drugs, the
workforce and sicker patients — as the biggest cause of rising premiums.
Overall inflation contributed to that pressure, driving prices higher
across the entire economy.
Insurers also blamed the expiration of federal subsidies that had offset
costs for many people and caused the Affordable Care Act program to
balloon in size in recent years. When those tax credits expired in
January, many plan costs skyrocketed. That prompted large swaths of
enrollees to depart the marketplace, leaving sicker patients who carry
higher risks and costs, and driving premiums higher.
[to top of second column]
|
A man walks by an healthcare insurance office in Hialeah, Fla., July
27, 2017, (AP Photo/Alan Diaz, File)
 New state-by-state data posted by
the Trump administration shows that the overall ACA marketplace
shrunk by more than 2.5 million people over the past year, with some
states seeing declines amounting to nearly a third of their enrollee
population.
Some insurers added that federal regulatory changes contributed to
their requests for higher premiums. For example, they said new
enrollment and eligibility requirements instituted by the Trump
administration could affect the overall population of ACA enrollees.
While Affordable Care Act enrollees make up less than 10% of the
population, similar cost drivers are likely to make other private
plans, including employer-sponsored plans, pricier too, according to
KFF’s analysis.
Findings align with other analyses
Georgetown University’s Center on Health Insurance Reforms also
published an analysis of preliminary ACA insurer rate filings last
month. Like KFF's, it projected double-digit premium increases in
the marketplace next year.
Stacey Pogue, a senior research fellow at the center who authored
the report, said the enrollees most affected by the rising premiums
will be those who don't qualify for financial help. She said those
people already saw the most significant increases to their premiums
in 2026, with some of their premiums doubling or tripling.
“Those are the folks who kind of got a double whammy” this year, she
said.
Pogue said the rate filings are demonstrating what many analysts had
expected: that the expiration of enhanced tax credits would cause
healthy Americans to flee the marketplace and leave a sicker patient
population that relies more heavily on insurance.
“When the healthy people leave, the prices go up,” she said. “The
analysts all predicted that, and now that's what we're seeing.”
All contents © copyright 2026 Associated Press. All rights reserved
 |
