What to watch in Tuesday's primaries as Democrats try to defend
California and make inroads in Iowa
[June 02, 2026]
By STEVEN SLOAN and STEVE PEOPLES
WASHINGTON (AP) — For a state that's home to Hollywood, there isn't much
star power in California's governor race. It's a somewhat different
story in Los Angeles, where a reality television personality is running
for mayor as the city prepares to host the Olympics.
More primaries are being held on Tuesday as well. Democrats are banking
on a rare chance to regain ground in Iowa, a rural state that has
repeatedly eluded them in recent years. Republicans, meanwhile, are
grappling with a New Jersey congressman whose unexplained absence could
put their already slim majority at risk.
Here are some things to watch as voters in California, Iowa, Montana,
New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota cast ballots.
California's low-wattage race for governor
Ronald Reagan. Arnold Schwarzenegger. Jerry Brown. Gavin Newsom.
The governor's office in California typically attracts some of the
highest-wattage names in politics, but not this year.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris and Sen. Alex Padilla took a pass on
the race. And with Newsom barred from seeking a third term, the campaign
to succeed him turned into a sprawling, often messy contest.
In the final stretch, much of the attention has focused on Democrats
Xavier Becerra, the former congressman and state attorney general who
was also health secretary under President Joe Biden, and Tom Steyer, a
billionaire known for his climate activism. Republican Steve Hilton is
campaigning with President Donald Trump's endorsement.
Under California's primary system, all candidates appear on a single
ballot and the top two finishers advance to the November general
election, regardless of party. The absence of a front-runner
incentivized virtually anyone with political ambition and a modicum of
organization to join the race, leaving Democrats worried that their
candidates would divide the vote and ultimately be shut out of the fall
campaign. But those fears have eased in the primary's closing weeks,
with the party now expecting to secure at least one slot on the November
ballot.
The results could offer insight about how voters are feeling in a state
where Democrats have dominated statewide elections for two decades.
Los Angeles mayor seeks to fend off reality star challenger
In a city still recovering from the most destructive wildfire in its
history, Mayor Karen Bass is in a tough fight for reelection.
The mayor, who is a frequent target of Trump's criticism, was in Ghana
as part of a presidential delegation when the blaze began. She has
acknowledged mistakes but has centered her campaign around a message of
recovery and progress.
Bass is facing a spirited challenge from reality television personality
Spencer Pratt, who has blamed Bass for presiding over destruction that
claimed his own home. Pratt, who rose to fame on “The Hills,” has shared
videos created by artificial intelligence that show him taking on a
superhero persona to battle street criminals and Democratic politicians.
The race is officially nonpartisan, but Bass is a Democrat, as is
progressive city council member Nithya Raman, who made a last-minute
decision to challenge her one-time ally. Pratt is a registered
Republican who has received a nod of approval — if not an outright
endorsement — from Trump.
Unless a candidate receives a majority of the vote in the primary, the
top two will advance to a general election in November.
Los Angeles hasn't elected a Republican mayor since Richard Riordan won
his second term in 1997, and the results will be closely watched for
signs of dissatisfaction with liberal urban governance. The winner will
emerge as a national and global figure as the city prepares to host the
Olympics in 2028.
Democrats look to Iowa to rebuild in the heartland
Iowa wasn't always a Republican stronghold.
Before Trump reshaped American politics, this was the state the lifted
the political career of Barack Obama and sent Tom Harkin to the Senate
for five terms.
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California gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra shakes hands with
supporters during a campaign event in West Hollywood, Calif.,
Thursday, May 28, 2026. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
The party is particularly excited about Rob Sand, who is running
unopposed for the Democratic nomination for governor. A native of
Decorah, Iowa, he has the rural roots that have become rare among
Democrats. Perhaps most importantly, he's a proven winner in a
Republican-leaning state, having been elected twice as auditor.
Republicans head into the primary with five candidates. Trump jumped
in last week to endorse Rep. Randy Feenstra.
This is the first open contest for the governor's seat since 2006.
Democrats are hoping that a combination of the economic fallout from
Trump's tariff policies, rising gas prices stemming from the Iran
war and the lack of a Republican incumbent could give them their
best opportunity in years. Sand also has a fundraising advantage
over the Republicans, including Feenstra.
State Rep. Josh Turek and state Sen. Zach Wahls are competing in the
Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by
incumbent Republican Joni Ernst. The race has divided in part along
questions of who should lead the party in Washington, with Wahls
openly criticizing Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer.
Republicans have largely coalesced behind U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson as
their candidate for the Senate seat.
An unexplained absence puts crucial GOP seat at risk
In the final frenzied days before an election, voters can sometimes
grow tired of hearing from candidates so much. But in New Jersey's
7th congressional district, they're not hearing from one candidate
at all.
Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. is running unopposed in Tuesday's
primary. But he's facing growing scrutiny for an unexplained medical
absence that has stretched for three months, causing him to miss
more than 100 votes in Congress.
That's not an ideal statistic for any lawmaker, but it's especially
problematic for someone running in one of the few genuinely
competitive congressional districts. While gerrymandering has
yielded most U.S. House seats reliably Democratic or Republican,
Kean's district has flipped between the parties in each of the last
two midterm elections. Republican Leonard Lance lost to Democrat Tom
Malinowski in 2018. Malinowski lost to Kean in 2022.
As they cling to a narrow majority in the House, Republicans can't
afford to lose a district like Kean's. Several Democrats vying to
take on Kean in the fall have made his absence — and the lack of
clarity surrounding it — a central part of their message.
New Jersey was one of the first places that voter pushback to Trump
became apparent last year when Democrat Mikie Sherrill won the
governor's race by more than 14 percentage points. The turnout in
the 7th district on Tuesday could provide clues about whether that
Democratic enthusiasm remains in place.
Democrats pin their hopes on independent candidates in some
states
Democrats are hopeful they can mount a serious challenge against
Republican Senate candidates in deep-red South Dakota and Montana
this fall. But their best hope may not be the Democrats featured on
Tuesday’s primary ballot.
Both states feature higher-profile independent candidates, who,
because they’re not running to represent a political party, do not
have to compete in primary elections.
In Montana, there are five Democrats competing for the party’s
Senate nomination. But independent Seth Bodnar, the former
University of Montana president, has raised more money than all of
them combined. He’s even significantly out-raised Trump-backed
Republican candidate Kurt Alme.
In South Dakota, three-term incumbent Republican Mike Rounds is
expected to cruise to his party’s nomination on Tuesday. He’ll face
Democrat Julian Beaudion, a former highway patrol trooper and small
business owner, on the November ballot. But it’s a former Democrat
now running as an independent, Brian Bengs, a military veteran, who
may be the tougher challenger.
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