Iran war disrupts global ocean freight and air cargo supply chains
beyond oil
[March 04, 2026] By
MAE ANDERSON
NEW YORK (AP) — The Iran war has effectively halted oil tanker movement
in the key Strait of Hormuz. But it's also disrupting the wider global
supply chain beyond oil, affecting everything from pharmaceuticals from
India, semiconductors from Asia and oil-derived products like
fertilizers that come from the Middle East.
Cargo ships are stuck in the Gulf or making a much longer detour around
the southern tip of Africa. Planes carrying air cargo out of the Middle
East are grounded. And the longer the war drags on, the more likely that
there will be shortages and price increases on a wide range of goods.
“This is really causing some major impacts within the global supply
chain,” said Patrick Penfield, professor of supply chain practice at
Syracuse University. “As this conflict keeps progressing, you’ll start
to see some shortages, you’ll see some major price increases.”
Stalled at sea
Clarksons Research, which tracks shipping data, estimates that about
3,200 ships, or about 4% of global ship tonnage, are idle inside the
Persian Gulf, but that includes about 1,231 that likely only operate
within the Gulf. About 500 ships, or 1% of global tonnage, are currently
“waiting” outside the Gulf in ports off the coast of the United Arab
Emirates and Oman, according to the firm.
While those may seem like small percentages, they have a domino effect
that will lead to congestion elsewhere, said Michael Goldman, general
manager North America of CARU Containers.
“The supply chain is kind of like a long train with many cars and each
car represents, let’s say, a port in the world. Well, if one car gets
derailed, it can very often have a domino effect to many other cars
behind it or in front of it,” he said. “So although we only have a small
number of ports affected by this military action, it can really have a
big effect on the total supply chain.”
On Tuesday, President Donald Trump pitched a plan aimed at getting oil
and trade moving again through the Strait.
Trump said on social media he ordered the U.S. International Development
Finance Corp. to provide political risk insurance for tankers carrying
oil and other goods through the Persian Gulf “at a very reasonable
price.”
Political risk insurance is a type of coverage intended to protect firms
against financial losses caused by unstable political conditions,
government actions, or violence. Marine insurers had been canceling or
raising rates for insurance in the region.
He said that, if necessary, the U.S. Navy would escort oil tankers
through the Strait of Hormuz. The Navy has at least eight destroyers and
three, smaller, littoral combat ships in the region. These ships have
previously been used to escort merchant shipping in the region and in
the Red Sea.
Computer chips, pharmaceuticals and other goods face delays
A wide range of products are shipped through the Mideast region. Along
with about 20% of the worlds oil that comes from the region, products
made with natural gas such as petrochemical feedstock — used to make
plastic and rubber — and nitrogen fertilizer come from the Middle East.
Pharmaceuticals exported from India and semiconductors and batteries
exported from Asia to the rest of the world are all shipped through the
region and could face delays.
Limited routes, higher costs
In addition to constraints on the Strait of Hormuz, the instability has
put a damper on transit in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, which had
just begun to see more transit after years of instability due to Houthi
attacks on ships in the region. Shipping company Maersk had resumed
transit in the Suez Canal and Red Sea but said Sunday it was rerouting
that traffic around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa, a move other
companies have been making to avoid the volatile region.
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Fishermen work in front of oil tankers south of the Strait of Hormuz
Jan. 19, 2012, offshore the town of Ras Al Khaimah in United Arab
Emirates. (AP Photo/Kamran Jebreili, File)
 That journey adds 10 to 14 days to
the trip and about $1 million extra in fuel per ship, Syracuse'
Penfield estimates.
With higher fuel prices, longer routes and higher risk in the
region, shippers have begun adding fuel and “war risk” or “emergency
conflict” surcharges to what they're charging clients, leading to
higher costs all around, he said.
Air cargo under pressure
Air cargo has also been constrained. Closed airspace and airports in
countries including UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, and Iran have
stranded tens of thousands of people - and cargo.
Each of the three major Middle Eastern airlines — Emirates, Qatar
Airways and Etihad Airways — operate fleets of cargo aircraft, and
the airlines also transport goods in the belly of their passenger
planes.
The amount of goods that travels through the air typically accounts
for less than 1% of all freight moving globally, but the products
that do travel by air tend to be perishable or high-value goods like
pharmaceuticals, electronics and produce that together account for
about 35% of the world trade value, Boeing estimated in its World
Air Cargo Forecast.
The longer these airports in the Middle East remain closed the
greater the potential disruption to the economy if these sensitive
shipments don’t arrive or have to be rerouted around the conflict.
Even before the war in Iran began over the weekend, air freight and
airlines were already contending with closed airspace over Ukraine
and Russia.
Flights through these Middle Eastern airport hubs are a key route
for passengers and cargo from India. Henry Harteveldt, an airline
industry analyst with Atmosphere Research Group, said it’s going to
be hard to get to India now, and passengers may have to switch to
different routes that fly west across Asia. Airlines may have to
resort to longer flights, and in some case even add fuel stops on
some routes.
“Remember, there’s a lot of pharmaceutical products that are made in
India and then exported to different countries around the world. If
that’s disrupted, that has a huge, huge, huge impact,” Harteveldt
said.
Air cargo costs are expected to rise due to reduced capacity,
increased demand, and surcharges.
Maersk said in an operational update Tuesday that it expects air
freight rates to rise due to capacity constraints.
“Airlines are also introducing or reviewing the possibility of
introducing war risk surcharges on shipments routed through or near
the impacted regions,” Maersk said in a statement. “There may also
be added costs linked to jet fuel which in turn can push up costs.”
An industry that ‘runs on disruption’
Despite the supply chain upheaval, however, Michael Goldman, general
manager North America of CARU Containers, said the industry will
adjust. Over the past few years it has faced other major disruptions
like COVID supply shortages and other recent Mideast conflicts and
has become more nimble.
“The specific situation that’s happening is pretty unprecedented, so
it’s very unique from that perspective,” he said. “(But) for the
last few years the industry just kind of runs on disruption. So in
terms of our industry having disruption, that is nothing new. That's
more of the same.”
___
Josh Funk in Omaha, Nebraska and Fatima Hussein and Konstantin
Toropin in Washington contributed to this report.
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