Evidence suggests the deadly blast at an Iranian school was likely a US
airstrike
[March 07, 2026]
By JULIA FRANKEL and MICHAEL BIESECKER
JERUSALEM (AP) — Satellite images, expert analysis, a U.S. official and
public information released by the U.S. and Israeli militaries suggest
an explosion that killed scores of Iranian students at a school was
likely caused by U.S. airstrikes that also hit an adjacent compound
associated with the regime's Revolutionary Guard.
The Feb. 28 strike, which had the highest reported civilian death toll
since the war began, has come under staunch criticism from the United
Nations and human rights monitors. More than 165 people were killed,
most of them of children, in the blast during school hours at Shajareh
Tayyebeh Elementary School, according to Iranian state media.
Satellite images taken Wednesday and reviewed by the The Associated
Press show most of the school in the city of Minab, some 1,100
kilometers (680 miles) southeast of Tehran, reduced to rubble, a
crescent shape punched into its roof. Experts say the tight pattern of
damage visible on the satellite photos is consistent with a targeted
airstrike.
Iran has blamed Israel and the United States for the blast. Neither
country has accepted responsibility. Asked about the strike at the
school at a Pentagon media briefing Wednesday, Defense Secretary Pete
Hegseth said, “All I can say is that we’re investigating that. We, of
course, never target civilian targets. But we’re taking a look and
investigating that.”
Several factors point to a U.S. strike.
One is the launching of an assessment of the incident by the U.S.
military. According to the Pentagon's instructions on processes for
mitigating civilian harm, an assessment is launched after a group of
investigators make an initial determination that the U.S. military may
bear culpability. A U.S. official told the AP that the strike was likely
U.S. The official spoke anonymously because they were not authorized to
comment publicly on the sensitive matter.
Another is the location of the school — next to a Revolutionary Guard
base in Hormozgan Province and close to barracks for its naval brigade.
The U.S. military has focused on naval targets and acknowledged strikes
in the province, including one in the vicinity of the school.
Israel, which has denied conducting the strike, has focused on areas of
Iran closer to Israel and hasn’t reported any strikes south of Isfahan,
800 kilometers (500 miles) away. The U.S. is operating warships in the
Arabian Sea, including the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, within
range of the school.
When asked by the AP about its findings, U.S. military Central Command
spokesperson Capt. Tim Hawkins said, “It would be inappropriate to
comment given the incident is under investigation.”
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Friday that
she had no updates on the investigation and did not directly answer a
question about whether President Donald Trump was satisfied with the
pace of the probe.
“My assumption is that probably there were some activities recently
there and they detected and tracked them, but ... they weren't aware or
didn't have an up-to-date database that a girls' school was there and
they bombed it," said Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington
Institute for Near East Policy who studies Iran’s military.
Satellite images show damage
The school is adjacent to a walled compound labeled on maps as the
Seyyed Al-Shohada Cultural Complex of the Guard. In addition to the
school, satellite photos show that blasts struck at least five buildings
in the Guard compound, leaving the area pocked with craters, charred
holes in roofs and piles of rubble.
Iranian online map applications show a living quarters for the Assef
Brigades about 150 meters (165 yards) from the school, inside the
Revolutionary Guard compound. The 16th Assef Coastal Missile Group is
part of the Guard's navy, Nadimi said. The 1st Naval District, which the
Assef Brigades belong to, is responsible for the Strait of Hormuz, the
narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which a fifth of all oil and
natural gas traded passes. The strait has been a particular point of
conflict in the war.
In the aftermath of the strike, video from Iran's state broadcaster
verified by the AP using satellite imagery showed dozens of fresh graves
dug at a nearby cemetery. Nadimi said it is likely the school taught
daughters of Guard personnel.
The strike has drawn wide condemnation from the secretary-general of the
United Nations and international human rights groups. The criticism
comes amid reports that airstrikes have also hit other schools in Iran.
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A Dept. of Defense map entitled, Operation EPIC FURY Timeline -
First 100 Hours, is displayed during a news conference with Defense
Secretary Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Gen. Dan Caine, at the Pentagon, Wednesday, March 4, 2026, in
Washington. (AP Photo/Konstantin Toropin)
Targeting schools would be a clear violation of international laws
governing armed conflict, said Elise Baker, a senior staff lawyer at
the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based nonprofit think tank.
“Strikes can only legally target military objectives and combatants,
but the school was a civilian object and the students and teachers
were civilians,” Baker said. “The school’s proximity to (Guard)
facilities and the attendance of children of (Guard) members at the
school does not change that conclusion: It was a civilian object.”
Pattern of damage suggests targeted strike
Three experts told the AP the satellite imagery and videos from the
scene strongly suggested multiple munitions hit the compound.
Complicating any assessment is the lack of images of bomb fragments
from the blast. No independent agency has reached the site during
the war to investigate.
There are no craters or evidence of bombs hitting in the surrounding
neighborhood, suggesting a great degree of accuracy, said Corey
Scher, a researcher who uses satellite imagery and radar data to
study landscape changes in armed conflict zones.
“All the strikes are clustered within the walled-off compound,"
Scher said. "That’s one level of precision at the block level. And
then most of the strikes are basically leading to direct hits on
buildings. That’s another level of precision.”
Scher said the school and the other buildings struck in the compound
showed damage consistent with the use of air-to-surface munitions.
“They didn’t explode in the air above the building," he said. “It
looks like the explosion happened at the time they hit the surface,
whether it was the building or the ground."
Sean Moorhouse, a former British Army officer and explosive ordnance
disposal expert, said the available satellite imagery was
insufficient to determine exactly what type of munitions were used
in the strike, but he said the visible damage was consistent with
what would be expected with impacts from multiple 2,000-pound
(900-kilogram) high-explosive warheads. He said the multiple precise
impacts would undercut any suggestion that a malfunctioning Iranian
missile hit the school.
N.R. Jenzen-Jones, the director of Armament Research Services, said
the school and Guard compound were targeted with “multiple
simultaneous or near-simultaneous strikes."
“If indeed it is confirmed that an American or Israeli strike hit
the school, there are several potential points of failure in the
targeting cycle,” Jenzen-Jones said. “We might be seeing an
intelligence failure, likely rather early in the process, which
misidentified the target or failed to update a targeting list
following the building’s change in use.”
He said in videos of the school taken immediately after the strike,
smoke can be seen rising from the Guard compound. There were also
impacts on multiple buildings visible in satellite images and media
reports citing witnesses who said they heard multiple explosions.
U.N. Human Rights Office spokesperson Ravina Shamdasani said the
investigation results needed to be made public.
“The families of the little girls who were killed are entitled to
the truth of how this happened," she said.
___
Biesecker reported from Washington. Associated Press writers Jon
Gambrell in Dubai, United Arab Emirates; Konstantin Toropin and
Michelle Price in Washington; Aamer Madhani in Doral, Florida; and
Jamey Keaten in Geneva contributed to this report.
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