Prewar US intel assessment found intervention in Iran wasn't likely to
change leadership
[March 10, 2026]
By MICHELLE L. PRICE and MARY CLARE JALONICK
WASHINGTON (AP) — A U.S. intelligence assessment completed shortly
before the United States and Israel launched a war in Iran had
determined that American military intervention was not likely to lead to
regime change in the Islamic Republic, according to two people familiar
with the finding.
The National Intelligence Council's assessment in February concluded
that neither limited airstrikes nor a larger, prolonged military
campaign would be likely to result in a new government taking over in
Iran, even if the current leadership was killed, according to the two
people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the classified
report.
The determination undercuts the administration’s assertion that it can
complete its objectives in Iran relatively quickly, perhaps in a matter
of weeks. The administration has asserted that it was not seeking regime
change in Iran, even as the strikes have taken out many figures in the
Iranian leadership and President Donald Trump considers whom he would
like to see lead the country.
The intelligence assessment concluded that no one powerful or unified
opposition coalition was poised to take over in Iran if the leadership
was killed, according to the people familiar with the report. It
determined that Iran’s establishment would attempt to preserve
continuity of power if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed,
the people said.
In line with the assessment’s findings, Iran’s leading clerics on Sunday
chose a new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, to succeed his father, who
was killed in the war’s opening salvo. The son is believed to hold views
that are even more hardline than his father, and his selection is a
strong sign of resistance from Iran’s leadership and an indication the
government won’t step aside quickly.
The details of the assessment were reported earlier by The Washington
Post and The New York Times.
Trump and other top administration leaders have given different
justifications for the strikes that began on Feb. 28, saying they were
necessary to set back Iran's nuclear weapons program or to preempt an
Iranian ballistic missile attack. While Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth
has said the war is not aimed at regime change, Trump has said it's
something he wants to see.
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People wave Iranian flags as they hold posters of the late Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, showing him at different ages, during
a rally to support his son Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeds
his father as the new supreme leader, in Tehran, Iran, Monday, March
9, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)
A spokesperson for the Office of the Director of National
Intelligence declined to comment on the assessment on Monday and
referred questions to the White House. Director Tulsi Gabbard fired
the council's acting chairperson last year after the release of a
declassified NIC memo that contradicted statements the Trump
administration has used to justify deporting Venezuelan immigrants.
Trump, dating back to his first term, has been deeply skeptical of
the U.S. intelligence community and has frequently dismissed its
findings as politically motivated or part of a “deep state” effort
to undermine his presidency.
Richard Goldberg, director for countering Iranian weapons of mass
destruction at the National Security Council during Trump’s first
term, noted that there’s also a measure of skepticism toward the
intelligence community because of some of its big misses in recent
years.
U.S. intelligence agencies widely failed to predict the rapid
collapse of the Afghan government to the Taliban that transpired in
2021, with most assessments suggesting a much slower takeover. And
in the lead-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the ODNI,
the Defense Department and the CIA wrongly estimated that Kyiv would
quickly fall to a bigger and better equipped Russian military.
Goldberg, who is now a senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense
of Democracies, a hawkish Washington think tank, said an
intelligence assessment is “almost like an op-ed from the
intelligence community.”
___
Associated Press writers Aamer Madhani in Doral, Florida, and David
Klepper in Washington contributed to this report.
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