Lebanese fear another occupation as Israel threatens to use Gaza tactics
in the south
[March 27, 2026]
By KAREEM CHEHAYEB and JULIA FRANKEL
BEIRUT (AP) — As Israel trades fire with Hezbollah, calls for mass
evacuations and sends ground troops deeper into Lebanon, its leaders
have hinted at a long-term occupation modeled on the devastating
conquest of much of Gaza after Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack.
Israel says it needs to establish a zone of control in the depopulated
south to shield its own northern communities, which have faced daily
rocket attacks since the Iran-backed militant Hezbollah group joined the
wider war. Many in Lebanon fear that could mean the open-ended
displacement of over a million people, the flattening of their homes and
a loss of territory.
On Thursday, the Israeli military said it has sent a third division
across the border into Lebanon.
Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz said this week that it would
create a “security zone” up to the Litani River, some 30 kilometers (20
miles) from the border in some places. He said troops would destroy
homes, which he claimed were being used by militants, and that residents
would not return until northern Israel is safe.
The campaign would mirror the one in Gaza, Katz said Tuesday. Israeli
forces flattened and largely depopulated the eastern half of the
Palestinian territory, and Israel has said it won't withdraw until Hamas
disarms as part of a U.S.-brokered ceasefire deal.
“We have ordered an acceleration in the destruction of Lebanese homes in
contact-line villages to neutralize threats to Israeli communities, in
accordance with the model of Beit Hanoun and Rafah in Gaza,” Katz said,
referring to border towns that were largely obliterated.
From one war to the next
After a 2024 ceasefire halted Israel's last war with Hezbollah, Israeli
forces gradually withdrew from southern Lebanon except for five
strategic hilltops along the border.
Lebanese returned to find homes, infrastructure and some entire villages
destroyed. Israel said it had dismantled Hezbollah infrastructure that
could have been used to launch an Oct. 7-style attack, and it continued
to strike what it said were militant targets on a near-daily basis after
the truce.
Hezbollah resumed it attacks after Israel and the United States launched
the war with Iran on Feb. 28, accusing Israel of having repeatedly
violated the ceasefire. Israel accused Lebanon's government of failing
to carry out its pledge to disarm Hezbollah despite its unprecedented
steps toward criminalizing the group.
In the latest fighting, Israel has launched blistering air raids across
Lebanon, killing more than 1,000 people — mostly outside of the border
area — and displacing over a million. It has called for the evacuation
of a wide swath of the south, extending from the border to the Zahrani
River, some 55 kilometers (34 miles) away.
The Israeli military has described it as a limited operation. But
Bezalel Smotrich, Israel's far-right finance minister and a member of
its Security Cabinet, said this week that the current war must end with
“fundamental change.”
“The Litani must be our new border with the state of Lebanon,” he said.
Echoes of an earlier occupation
Israel invaded southern Lebanon in 1982 during the country's civil war.
Hezbollah, established that year, waged a guerrilla campaign that
eventually ended the Israeli occupation in 2000.
This time around, Israel has bombed seven bridges over the Litani, the
northern edge of a U.N.-patrolled buffer zone established after previous
conflicts. Israel says Hezbollah was using the bridges to move fighters
and weapons, and that its military will control the remaining crossings.
Heavy fighting has meanwhile erupted in the town of Khiam, the fall of
which would cut off the south from Lebanon's eastern Bekaa Valley,
another area with a large Hezbollah presence.
After the bridges were bombed, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun accused
Israel of seeking to isolate the south “to establish a buffer zone,
entrench the reality of occupation, and pursue Israeli expansion within
Lebanese territories.”
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An Israeli soldier jumps from a tank in northern Israel near the
border with Lebanon, Saturday, March 21, 2026. (AP Photo/Ariel
Schalit)
U.N. peacekeepers say the bombing of the bridges and ongoing clashes
have hindered their operations and put personnel at risk.
“This is the closest fighting activity we have seen to our
positions,” said Kandice Ardel, spokesperson for the U.N. mission
known as UNIFIL. “Bullets, fragments, and shrapnel have hit
buildings and open areas inside our headquarters.”
Ardel said peacekeepers have seen a growing presence of Israeli
troops and “engineering assets,” though they have not seen any new
military positions built yet.
‘Different shades’ of control
Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East think
tank in Beirut, said Israel has already established “different
shades” of control.
“The first line of borders is a no-man zone. This is basically a
large parking lot that is facing Israel,” he said. “There is nothing
there, no movement, nothing at all.”
Lebanese movement is restricted farther north. During last year's
olive harvest, farmers struggled to reach groves because of Israeli
strikes and had to be accompanied by Lebanese troops and UNIFIL
peacekeepers, who coordinated with Israel.
Sarit Zehavi, the founder and president of the Alma Institute and a
retired Israeli military officer, said Israel will likely establish
a more extensive area of control stretching farther north.
She acknowledged that Israel was unlikely to defeat Hezbollah and
was at risk of having to maintain a long-term presence in southern
Lebanon.
“But the other alternative is to take the risk that we will be
slaughtered. It’s as simple as that,” she said.
No diplomatic offramp in sight
Lebanon's government has broken a longstanding taboo by proposing
direct talks with Israel. It has also taken action against Hezbollah
since the last war, criminalizing its activities and claiming to
have dismantled hundreds of military positions.
But neither the U.S. nor Israel has shown any interest in such talks
as they focus on the wider war with Iran.
If negotiations occur, Israel could demand major concessions in
exchange for relinquishing territory taken by force — a version of
the decades-old “land for peace” formula.
Israel seized parts of Syria after the overthrow of President Bashar
Assad and is in talks with the new government about an updated
security arrangement. In Gaza, it has vowed to keep half the
territory until Hamas lays down its arms, as each side has accused
the other of violating the truce reached in October.
Lebanese who fled their homes are meanwhile in limbo — and some fear
they may never return.
Elias Konsol and his neighbors fled the Christian border village of
Alma al-Shaab with UNIFIL's help. He was reunited with his mother,
who cried in his arms, at a church near Beirut where funeral
services were being held for a resident killed in an Israeli strike.
Konsol said there were no weapons or Hezbollah fighters in his
village, but it was forced to evacuate anyway.
“We no longer know our fate,” he said. “We don’t know if we will see
our homes and village again.”
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Frankel reported from Jerusalem.
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