US filings for jobless benefits hits 211,000 as the war in Iran drags
on, clouding economic forecast
[May 15, 2026] By
MATT OTT
WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of Americans filing for jobless aid rose
last week but remains historically low despite the economic uncertainty
caused by the war in Iran.
U.S. applications for unemployment benefits for the the week ending May
9 rose by 12,000 to 211,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday.
That’s slightly more than the 207,000 new applications analysts surveyed
by the data firm FactSet had forecast.
Weekly filings for unemployment benefits are considered a proxy for U.S.
layoffs and are close to a real-time indicator of the health of the job
market.
Despite relatively few layoffs, the labor market appears to be stuck in
what economists call a “low-hire, low-fire” state. That has kept the
unemployment rate low at 4.3%, but left many of those out of work
struggling to find new employment.
Though U.S. employers delivered a surprising 115,000 new jobs in April,
the Iran war has injected a large degree of uncertainty about the
broader U.S. economy and labor market.
The Strait of Hormuz, where one-fifth of the world’s oil travels
through, remains closed. Since the beginning of the war in late
February, oil prices have spiked more than 50% and the average price for
a gallon of gas in the U.S. has climbed to $4.53 from less than $3.
Besides hitting consumers’ pocketbooks, those higher costs can
discourage businesses from hiring.
Data from the U.S. government this week revealed that inflation at the
consumer level rose 3.8% from April 2025, the biggest jump in three
years. Food prices are also up, but may not yet fully reflect rising
energy costs due to the Iran war, analysts say.
Another report this week showed that wholesale prices shot up 6% from a
year ago, the highest point in more than three years. The Labor
Department’s producer price index — which tracks inflation before it
hits consumers — shot up 1.4% from March to April, the biggest monthly
gain in more than four years.
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 This comes at a time when U.S.
inflation is already above the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal. Two weeks
ago, the Fed opted to leave its benchmark rate alone, citing
economic uncertainty caused by instability in the Middle East and
still-elevated inflation.
Lower interest rates can boost the economy and hiring, but also tend
to stoke inflation, leading a number of Federal Reserve policymakers
to say they are willing to consider an interest rate hike this year.
On top of that, the recent artificial intelligence boom and the
investment required to develop it could alter or even replace some
jobs.
A number of high-profile companies have cut jobs recently, including
Verizon, UPS, Amazon, Disney and Walmart.
Weekly jobless aid applications have stabilized in a range mostly
between 200,000 and 250,000 since the U.S. economy emerged from the
pandemic recession. However, hiring began slowing about two years
ago and tapered further in 2025 due to President Donald Trump’s
erratic tariff rollouts, his purge of the federal workforce and the
lingering effects of high interest rates meant to control inflation.
Employers added fewer than 200,000 jobs last year, compared with
about 1.5 million in 2024, according to the data firm FactSet.
The Labor Department's report Thursday showed that the four-week
moving average of jobless claims, which evens out some of the
week-to-week gyrations, inched up by 750 to 203,750.
The total number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for
the previous week ending May 2 jumped by 24,000 to 1.78 million, in
line with analyst forecasts.
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