Alberta province plans a public vote on whether to hold a binding
referendum on leaving Canada
[May 22, 2026]
By ROB GILLIES
TORONTO (AP) — Canada’s oil-rich province of Alberta will hold a
referendum in October on leaving Canada, but the province’s premier said
Thursday it won’t actually be a vote on whether to separate.
Danielle Smith said voters instead would be deciding whether it’s time
to hold a referendum on quitting Canada.
“I want to be clear. I support Alberta remaining in Canada, and this is
how I would vote on separation in a provincial referendum. It is also
the position of my government,” Smith said in televised remarks.
The question will ask whether Alberta should stay in Canada or take
legal steps under the Constitution to hold a binding referendum on
leaving.
Ian Brodie, a former chief of staff to ex-Conservative Prime Minister
Stephen Harper and a now a political science professor at the University
of Calgary, said Smith appears to be proceeding very carefully.
“A vote to see if people even want a vote. It’s a good way to let the
swing voters swing against separation,” Brodie said.
A “yes” vote in a binding referendum still would not trigger
independence. Negotiations with the federal government would have to
take place. A 1998 Supreme Court ruling means provinces cannot secede
unilaterally from Canada.
Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University in
Montreal, noted Smith has publicly opposed independence so some people
have compared her stance to the one of Britain's then-Prime Minister
David Cameron ahead of the Brexit referendum, which he embraced as a way
to manage a vocal faction of his ruling party while not wanting the U.K.
to leave the European Union.
“Politically Smith seems committed to do so to appease supporters of her
own party who want a referendum. If she doesn’t follow suit, she might
face a potentially perilous mutiny within her partisan ranks,” Béland
said.
Earlier Thursday, three members of Smith’s United Conservative Party of
Alberta caucus passed a motion in committee asking her and her cabinet
to put the issue to a referendum on Oct. 19.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s federal Liberal government has been working
with Smith to get an oil pipeline to the Pacific coast built to make
many Albertans happy.
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Prime Minister Mark Carney, right, meets with Premier of Alberta
Danielle Smith at his office in Ottawa on Friday, May 8, 2026. (Sean
Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press via AP, File)
“Canada’s government strongly believes that the interests of Albertans
and all Canadians are best served when we work together,” Dominic
LeBlanc, the federal minister of Intergovernmental Affairs, posted on
social media.
Béland said Smith’s question is framed in such a way that some voters
could vote in favor of an independence referendum to send a message to
the federal government and the rest of Canada without actually taking
the risk of voting directly for independence.
“It might lower the apparent stakes, making it perhaps easier for some
voters to think they can send a political message to the rest of the
country without taking the risk of leading the province to the point of
no return,” he said.
Béland said a possible future referendum is likely to lose as support
for separation is slightly less than 30% but said campaigns do matter.
Opposition Federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre earlier said he
and all Conservative members of Parliament would press for Alberta to
remain part of Canada in a referendum campaign.
Smith said a judge made an error last week when she ruled a citizen led
petition designed to force a referendum was unconstitutional.
“In her address, Smith explained that a recent court ruling makes such a
binding reference impossible for now, which justifies the new question,”
Béland said.
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