Analysts weigh how Democrats’ midterm wins could shift Trump’s Latin
America policy
[November 11, 2026]
By MARÍA VERZA
MEXICO CITY (AP) — U.S. President Donald Trump's impact on Latin America
in the last two years has been enormous, from immigration and
deportations to boat strikes that have killed hundreds to the capture of
Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
Now analysts are trying to get a read on whether the sweeping wins by
Democrats in the midterm elections will signal changes ahead for the
region in Trump's final two years in office.
Initial signals from the White House have been contradictory. Trump has
given mixed signals on immigration policy, at one point describing his
past policy as “too tough,” but then suggesting a hard line on
immigration would continue. He appointed Stephen Miller, the primary
architect of his immigration agenda, as his new chief of staff.
A U.S. House effort to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth fell short
Tuesday. The key figure shaping priorities for the hemisphere, Secretary
of State Marco Rubio, remains a key member of Trump's Cabinet.
Here is a look at the key areas that might be impacted by the political
shifts in the U.S.
Migration: Deportations with adjustments
The first postelection message on X from the Secretary of Homeland
Security, Markwayne Mullin, was unequivocal: “Deportations will
continue.”
But two Texas cities — Houston and Austin — already have announced plans
to limit police cooperation with U.S. Immigration and Customs
Enforcement agents, a trend that could extend to state-level law
enforcement once Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa, a vocal critic of ICE’s
practices, takes office in January 2027.
Former Mexican Ambassador Martha Bárcena expressed hope that increased
collaboration among mayors, members of Congress, governors and their
Mexican counterparts will help to “limit and curb the cruelty of ICE and
discrimination against the Hispanic population.”
Security: More pressure on cartels
Mexico could be the place where pressure intensifies the most, as it
offers the United States the best opportunity for tangible, short-term
results, specifically more arrests and extraditions, while the Justice
Department continues to investigate cartels, Mexican analyst David
Saucedo said.
On Monday, the heads of Mexico’s security apparatus and the U.S. Drug
Enforcement Administration posted messages about their meeting last week
to strengthen collaboration against the cartels.
Further south, the U.S. military, including the Army and the Navy, is
expected to maintain its focus on joint operations under the “Shield of
the Americas” initiative with Latin American partners to combat criminal
gangs. Saucedo noted that this approach does not require significant
Congressional funding. Additionally, crime remains a top priority for
most Latin American countries, most of them led by Trump allies who won
elections based on promises to crack down on criminals.
Boat strikes in the Caribbean and the Pacific, which have killed at
least 240 people, are likely to face increased scrutiny, as Democrats
already have called for an investigation into the legality of these
actions.
Venezuela and Cuba remain Trump administration targets
Some analysts believe that Trump will maintain his aspirations to assert
U.S. dominance in the region, although his capacity to act could be
limited.
[to top of second column]
|
White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, listens as
President Donald Trump speaks and announces action to help farmers
and ranchers, Sept. 4, 2026, in the Oval Office of the White House,
in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, File)
Venezuela stands out as a top Latin American priority for the
Democrats, as it touches upon a key voter concern: corruption.
There are already specific calls from Democratic lawmakers to
investigate who has benefited from oil agreements signed between the
Trump administration and Caracas.
Christopher Sabatini, of the London-based think tank Chatham House,
expects Democrats in Congress to pursue hearings on oil deals and
also anticipates increased pressure for the holding of elections in
Venezuela. That said, he believes the tense relationship between the
Democrats and opposition figure María Corina Machado, a Trump ally,
could hinder concrete progress.
Some believe pressure on Cuba will not ease. Two days after the
election, Rubio announced further sanctions against the island.
José Briceño, a professor from the Mexican Center for Research on
Latin America and the Caribbean (CIALC), considered a military
operation against the island unlikely, given the complexity and
risks involved. But no one wants to rule it out.
“A secretary of state with presidential ambitions has every
incentive to seek a quick result in Cuba,” wrote Orlando J. Pérez, a
professor at the University of North Texas.
Brazil will stand as the main counterweight to Washington as Luiz
Inácio Lula da Silva's win served to check the region’s growing
shift to the right and denied Trump a powerful ally. Mexican
President Claudia Sheinbaum, who also leans to the left, has been
less outspoken and has walked a fine line with the Trump
administration.
Economy and trade are key issues
The economy proved a key issue for U.S. voters, opening the
possibility for changes in trade policy, particularly in areas where
tariffs have fueled inflation for U.S. businesses and consumers,
said Mariana Aparicio, an expert in international political economy
at the National Autonomous University of Mexico.
Nevertheless, she predicted Trump will continue to use tariffs as a
tool for political leverage.
Mexican Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard said tariffs are unlikely
to change significantly, but he suggested the new Congress could
make adjustments to the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Analysts also agree that economic support for Latin American
governments aligned with the White House will continue; however, it
is highly unlikely that Trump will be able to repeat actions such as
the $20 billion in support for Javier Milei’s Argentina in late
2025.
___
Associated Press journalists Regina García-Cano in Caracas,
Venezuela, and Valerie González in McAllen, Texas, contributed to
this report.
All contents © copyright 2026 Associated Press. All rights reserved |
