Pro Picks: Patrick Mahomes and the
Chiefs will hand the Raiders their first loss
[October 01, 2026]
By ROB MAADDI
Only five NFL teams remain unbeaten and two of them face off in Week
4.
It’s an unlikely matchup of 3-0 teams when Patrick Mahomes and the
Kansas City Chiefs visit Kirk Cousins and the Las Vegas Raiders on
Sunday.
Mahomes and the Chiefs have been here before. It’s his fifth 3-0
start in nine seasons. But the Raiders won three games all of last
season to secure the No. 1 overall pick.
Fernando Mendoza has to wait his turn, however.
Cousins and first-year coach Klint Kubiak have turned things around
quickly in Las Vegas. This will be a major challenge.
Kenneth Walker III leads the NFL in rushing with 360 yards, giving
the Chiefs a balanced offensive attack.
Mahomes is 13-2 vs. the Raiders in his career.
The Chiefs are 4 ½-point favorites. Pro Picks likes Kansas City.
CHIEFS: 27-20
PITTSBURGH (2-1) at CLEVELAND (2-1)
Line: Steelers minus 2 ½
The Steelers finally looked sharp in Mike McCarthy’s offense in a
30-27 win against Cincinnati. Deshaun Watson has played excellent
football the past two games, especially in the fourth quarter for
Cleveland. The Browns are 10-6 on “Thursday Night Football,”
including 9-1 at home. The Steelers have lost four straight in
Cleveland.
BROWNS: 22-20
INDIANAPOLIS (1-2) vs. WASHINGTON (1-2), in London
Line: Colts minus 3 ½
The Colts ended a nine-game losing streak and now aim to start a
winning one. They need Daniel Jones to play better but the defense
stepped up last week against Houston. The Commanders stunned the
defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks thanks to three turnovers and
an impressive performance from backup QB Marcus Mariota. Both teams
are 0-1 in London. The Commanders are 6-4 against the spread in
their past 10 games.
COLTS: 24-18
ARIZONA (1-2) at NEW YORK GIANTS (2-1)
Line: Cardinals minus 1 ½
The Cardinals have allowed 67 points and lost two in a row since an
upset over the Chargers in Week 1. Yet, Arizona is a road favorite
in New York. That’s because the Giants keep losing key players.
First, Jaxson Dart. Now, edge rusher Brian Burns. Jameis Winston has
to get the offense going. If not, J.J. McCarthy is waiting for his
turn with his new team.
GIANTS: 23-20
DALLAS (1-2) at HOUSTON (0-3)
Line: Texans minus 2 ½
The battle of Texas is a matchup between a pair of underachieving
teams. The Cowboys bungled one vs. Baltimore in Brazil. Dallas still
is having trouble on defense despite new additions and a new
coordinator. Houston went 12-2 after an 0-3 start last season. They
have no margin for error. Only the 1992 Chargers rebounded from an
0-4 start to make the playoffs.
TEXANS: 24-20
GREEN BAY (1-2) at TAMPA BAY (0-3)
Line: Packers minus 3 ½
Jordan Love and the Packers were booed at Lambeau Field during an
embarrassing loss to Atlanta. They may have more fans in Tampa Bay
where the Cheeseheads could outnumber a hometown crowd that’s tired
of watching their team lose. The Buccaneers are 2-10 since a 6-2
start last season. Undrafted rookie QB Jalon Daniels will make his
first career start filling in for Baker Mayfield. The offense has
been woeful with Mayfield so it’s hard to get much worse.
BEST BET: PACKERS: 24-13
JACKSONVILLE (2-1) at CINCINNATI (2-1)
Line: Bengals minus 2 ½
Trevor Lawrence has been excellent in Jacksonville’s wins and the
Jaguars have allowed the fewest points in the league. Travis Hunter
got his first career pick last week. Maybe this week he gets a
chance to make an impact on offense. Joe Burrow leads a potent
offense for the Bengals but the revamped defense took a step
backward last week against Rodgers and the Steelers. Cincinnati has
won four straight in the series.
UPSET SPECIAL: JAGUARS: 26-24
LOS ANGELES RAMS (1-2) at PHILADELPHIA (2-1)
Line: Rams minus 3
A questionable pass interference call cost the Rams a win in Denver
and the league’s best team on paper has a losing record through
three games. But the Eagles struggled against third-string QB Case
Keenum and have a short week following a Monday night loss in
Chicago. Vic Fangio’s once-formidable defense now seems shaky.
Matthew Stafford can expose their weakness. Eagles coach Nick
Sirianni is 4-0 vs. Sean McVay.
RAMS: 26-20
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Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) looks to throw
the ball during an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins,
Sunday, Sept. 27, 2026, in Miami Gardens. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)
NEW ENGLAND (1-2) at BUFFALO (3-0)
Line: Bills minus 6 1/2
The Patriots suddenly have a Drake Maye problem. The NFL MVP
runner-up has struggled in the first three games after a rough
postseason. Josh Allen and the Bills overcame five turnovers to beat
the Chargers. Buffalo can create distance in the AFC East standings
with a win.
BILLS: 23-17
NEW YORK JETS (1-2) at CHICAGO (2-1)
Line: Bears minus 3 ½
The Jets are playing better, staying competitive and Geno Smith has
put his turnover troubles from last season behind. Keenum earned the
right to start another one after a masterful performance against the
Eagles. But it could be Tyson Bagent under center for Chicago, which
didn’t lose a step offensively without Caleb Williams.
BEARS: 24-17
TENNESSEE (0-3) at BALTIMORE (2-1)
Line: Ravens minus 11 ½
The Titans have improved on defense under coach Robert Saleh. But
they still haven’t won a game. Cam Ward’s ill-advised interception
in the end zone cost Tennessee a win against the Giants. Lamar
Jackson pulled one out against Dallas. He needs better protection
from a patchwork offensive line. Derrick Henry faces his former
team.
RAVENS: 26-17
MIAMI (0-3) at MINNESOTA (3-0)
Line: Vikings minus 10 ½
Things were bleak for the Dolphins before they lost their best
offensive player, De’Von Achane, for the season. The Vikings are
winning games despite an inconsistent offense. Now that Kyler Murray
has played his first full game, Minnesota needs more production.
VIKINGS: 23-13
DENVER (2-1) at SAN FRANCISCO (3-0)
Line: 49ers minus 2 ½
Bo Nix and the Broncos know how to come back. They need a complete
game to beat the 49ers. Brock Purdy is off to an excellent start for
San Francisco despite a depleted receiving group. Nick Bosa won’t
play but LT Trent Williams and WR Mike Evans could return after
going out last week. Denver has won 10 straight games against NFC
teams.
BRONCOS: 23-22
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (0-3) at SEATTLE (2-1)
Line: Seahawks minus 3
The Chargers were supposed to be contenders. But the offense is
struggling, Justin Herbert has regressed under coordinator Mike
McDaniel and they have to find a way to upset Seattle to avoid 0-4.
The Seahawks got a wake-up call against Washington and had their
12-game winning streak snapped. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been
unstoppable with two TD catches in each game so far.
SEAHAWKS: 23-21
DETROIT (2-1) at CAROLINA (1-2)
Line: Lions minus 3
Detroit’s prolific offense is averaging 31 points per game, but the
defense is giving up a league-worst 31.7. Jared Goff will face a
depleted defense that likely won’t have its starting cornerbacks.
That’s bad news for Carolina. Bryce Young and the Panthers have to
win a shootout.
LIONS: 31-26
ATLANTA (1-2) at NEW ORLEANS (1-2)
Line: Saints minus 2 ½
Michael Penix Jr. came back, Bijan Robinson had a big game vs. Green
Bay and the Falcons got on the winning track in the first of three
straight primetime games. Giving the ball to Robinson is a winning
formula for Atlanta. The Saints are 27th against the run. Tyler
Shough has eight TD passes but six turnovers for New Orleans, which
was competitive in both losses.
SAINTS: 24-23
___
Last week: Straight up: 9-7. Against spread: 7-8-1.
Overall: Straight up: 29-19. Against spread: 20-27-1.
Best Bet: Straight up: 2-1. Against spread: 1-2.
Upset Special: Straight up: 1-2. Against spread: 2-1.
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