Republican redistricting in Texas and Florida may not turn out as Trump
had hoped
[September 30, 2026]
By JESSE BEDAYN and BILL BARROW
HARLINGEN, Texas (AP) — Eric Flores, a former federal prosecutor and
Army National Guard infantry captain, was one of the Republican Party's
prized recruits in this year's midterm elections. With help from a
redrawn congressional map in Texas, he seemed primed to dislodge
longtime Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez in a region that swung toward
Donald Trump in the last presidential election.
Now he's one of several candidates locked in a tougher race than
originally envisioned as Republican-run states heeded Trump's call to
begin an unusual round of redistricting to help retain control of the
U.S. House.
Republicans hoped to pick up as many as nine seats between Texas and
Florida. However, even though the districts were redrawn to make them
easier to win, the party remains weighed down by dissatisfaction with
Trump, the economy, the war with Iran and the president's deportation
agenda.
The political landscape remains competitive enough that Vice President
JD Vance is traveling to Texas on Wednesday, where he'll appear with
Flores, and then visit Florida on Thursday.
House Democrats' national campaign chair, Rep. Suzan DelBene, recently
circulated through Florida districts that Republicans were hoping to
claim for themselves.
“Republicans arrogantly thought they were going to redistrict seats to
pick up more,” DelBene said in an interview during her trip. “Instead,
what they have is people across the state souring on the Republican
agenda.”
Mike Marinella, House Republicans’ campaign spokesman, said the party
can still capitalize this year “with a more favorable map, historic
fundraising and spending advantages, stronger candidates and a
common-sense agenda.”
House seats are up for grabs in Texas
Republicans won 25 of Texas’ 38 seats in the U.S. House as Trump
returned to power two years ago. Partially using that election as a
baseline, the redrawn map was intended to help Republicans win up to 30
seats.
Key to this plan was the Rio Grande Valley, a heavily Latino region on
the southern tip of Texas, which had shifted toward Trump.
Texas’ 34th Congressional District, where Flores is running, includes
some of the valley, and it opted for Trump by 10 points over Democrat
Kamala Harris. But Flores said he expected his race to be close, which
he credits to his opponent's five terms in office.
Flores received Trump's endorsement, still pinned to his X account, and
spoke at his unusual midterm convention in Dallas. But he also removed
from his website a promise to “SUPPORT PRESIDENT TRUMP’S AGENDA" as he
looked toward general election voters and widening his base of support.
“If I tell them the red meat issues or I tell them, you know, oh,
Republican, Democrat, or anything like that, you lose them,” he told The
Associated Press. “I just sell them myself, sell them what I stand for.”
Republicans in Washington acknowledge that inflation, Trump's tariffs
and the war in Iran have made their path harder. Latino voters’
discontent with Trump’s immigration agenda further scrambles their
efforts.
Republicans are also facing the potential loss of an incumbent who
represents a redrawn district. Rep. Monica De La Cruz, who is running
for a third term, faces a strong challenge from musician Bobby Pulido. A
Latin Grammy winner whose top song on Spotify has 619 million streams,
Pulido doesn’t face the usual first-time candidates’ challenge of
establishing name ID.
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Democratic candidate for congress Bobby Pulido laughs while
speaking with reporters and staff members in the parking lot of
Richard R. Flores Stadium, before attending a football game between
Edcouch-Elsa High School and Robert Vela High School, Thursday,
Sept. 17, 2026, in Edinburg, Texas. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree
Nikhinson,File)
“I want a picture!” Eloise Ibarra, 42, exclaimed as Pulido walked
through the crowd at a high school football game. Ibarra later said
she'd “probably” vote for Pulido after sitting out the last
presidential race.
“I don’t really like his policies,” she said about Trump. “It’s very
expensive, I go to the grocery store and buy $50 worth of stuff and
it’s like five items.”
Democrats argue that Republicans miscalculated this year.
“I think Republicans counted on Hispanics, and they counted on rural
Texas, to deliver votes for them, and these are the two places that
are hurting the most,” said Terri Burke of the Texas Democratic
Party. Speaking of redistricting, she said, "this is really no
longer such a slam dunk for the Republicans anywhere.”
Democrats see opportunity in Florida
Republicans already had 20 out of 28 seats in Florida, and they
wanted to boost that to 24 with their new congressional map. But
much like in Texas, their plan was based on 2024 results, when
voters, including many Latinos, were dissatisfied with Democratic
President Joe Biden on the economy and immigration.
Republicans targeted Rep. Kathy Castor in metro Tampa and Rep.
Darren Soto in the Orlando area, while putting south Florida Reps.
Jared Moskowitz and Debbie Wasserman Schultz into the same district.
Moskowitz shifted to a nearby Republican-leaning district, and
Wasserman Schultz ran for another term in a separate, heavily
Democratic district. Castor and Soto face longer odds in their
redrawn districts, though DelBene believes they have a shot in the
current environment.
The new map didn’t stop Pia Dandiya, an Ivy League-educated school
principal whose parents immigrated from India, from mounting her
first House campaign for Congress.
She’s running in Florida’s 22nd Congressional District, where Trump
won by double digits in 2024 and where Republicans had hoped to pit
Moskowitz against Wasserman Schultz.
But Dandiya notes that Biden outpaced Trump in the same collection
of precincts in 2020, and she calls herself “a happy road warrior”
as she travels 150-plus miles between campaign stops.
“The way this district has been drawn just shows yet again that we
are living in a world where elected officials are choosing voters
instead of voters choosing elected officials, and it should never be
that way,” she said. DelBene and the Democratic Congressional
Campaign Committee tapped her as one of their “Red to Blue” priority
candidates.
Dandiya said voters' current circumstances matter more than how they
voted two years ago.
“Cost of living is not an issue that is exclusively impacting
Democrats. It is an issue that is ubiquitous,” she said, adding that
she hears the same concerns even in her district's more conservative
communities.
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Barrow reported from Fort Lauderdale, Florida, and Atlanta.
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