Democrats want a blue wave. New Hampshire is Exhibit A for why that may
not happen
[September 30, 2026]
By STEVE PEOPLES, HOLLY RAMER and STEVEN SLOAN
HUDSON, N.H. (AP) — Five weeks before Election Day, Democratic
enthusiasm is reaching a fever pitch.
With Republicans struggling to overcome President Donald Trump's low
standing, Democrats are on the offensive in Republican strongholds like
Texas and Florida, and even eyeing contests in deeper-red Kansas and
Mississippi. Many Democratic leaders predict that the House majority is
all but theirs, and that the Senate majority, almost unthinkable a year
ago, is nearly in their grasp as well.
In the midst of such confidence, however, Democrats are ignoring glaring
vulnerabilities that threaten to undermine the unstoppable blue wave
they say is coming.
Look no further than swing-state New Hampshire, where Democratic leaders
are sounding the alarm about political challenges that could jeopardize
Rep. Chris Pappas' campaign for an open Senate seat and undermine the
party's ability to win races around the country.
Democrats point to Republicans' overwhelming financial advantage that is
allowing them to dominate the airwaves in the closing days of the
campaign. At the same time, the Democrats' brand remains deeply
unpopular, and they have virtually no margin for error in midterm races
that are playing out largely in Republican-leaning states.
New Hampshire Democratic Chairman Ray Buckley says that national
Democratic leaders “have consistently been overly optimistic” as they
look to expand the midterm map. He's particularly worried about his
state's Senate contest, where Republicans are investing far more
resources than Democrats.
“There is reason for concern,” Buckley said. “We don’t want to let this
one slip away because they were sending resources to some other unicorns
— some other state that’s just not possible.”
Despite such warnings, there is little sign of concern among senior
Democratic officials, who point to Trump's poor standing with voters who
are frustrated by the war with Iran and surging costs with Republicans
in control of Washington.
“It’s nothing we’re doing. We’re winning because they’re losing," said
Democratic pollster John Anzalone. “And they’re losing dramatically with
every action the president has taken.”
There is almost no state where Democrats cannot compete in November, he
said: “America is the battleground state.”
Democrats are short on cash and goodwill
For all the Democrats' confidence, the party's brand remains deeply
unpopular and fundraising is lagging.
More than half of voters, 55%, have a “strongly” or “somewhat”
unfavorable view of the Democrats, according to a Fox News poll from
September. A similar share, 58%, say the same about the Republican
Party, while about 6 in 10 voters have a negative view of Trump (62%).
At the same time, about half of registered voters say the Democratic
Party is “too far to the left,” according to a recent New York
Times/Siena poll.
As the election approaches, few Democratic leaders acknowledge there is
a problem.
In an interview, Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., pointed the finger at
Republicans when asked about issues with the Democratic brand.
“We’ve made a much better case than them, and that’s why it looks like
we’re going to win a bunch of House seats and probably win back the
Senate,” Kelly said. “Right now, I think the Republican brand is the one
that’s damaged.”
And yet Democrats are struggling to keep up with Republican fundraising.
Flush with campaign cash, Republicans are dominating the airwaves over
the final weeks of the campaign. There isn’t a single state that
features a top-tier Senate contest in which Democrats are spending more
than Republicans.
Nationwide, Republicans are spending $1.63 billion on campaign
advertising between Sept. 1 and Election Day compared to $1.19 billion
for Democrats, according to data compiled by AdImpact as of Monday. The
Republican advantage, nearly 40% nationwide, is actually larger in some
key states.
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Rep. Chris Pappas, a Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, speaks to
reporters Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2026, in Salem, N.H. (AP Photo/Robert
F. Bukaty)
In Texas, for example, which features competitive races for the
Senate, House and governor, Republicans are spending $262.4 million
statewide between Sept. 1 and Election Day compared to $76.9 million
for Democrats, AdImpact found. In Ohio, which also hosts pivotal
elections for Senate and governor, Republicans are outspending
Democrats $258.8 million to $160.4 million. And in Florida, which
features competitive races for governor and the House, Republicans
are spending $99.3 million against the Democrats’ $47.9 million.
The Republican advantage isn’t as egregious in New Hampshire as some
other states, but it is significant. AdImpact finds that Republicans
are outspending Democrats in New Hampshire $41.2 million to $35.4
million statewide.
Pappas, the Democrat in the New Hampshire Senate race, acknowledged
the Republican spending advantage and warned that his state must
remain a priority for his national party.
“The majority won’t be flipped if we don’t hold this seat in New
Hampshire, so it’s really critical to the overall map,” he said
during a campaign stop.
Democratsface ‘an identity crisis’
Pappas met on Tuesday with small business owners, including Amber
Morgan, who owns Fortin Gage Flowers in Nashua. She said the
uncertainty created by the Trump administration’s tariffs have been
hard for her business.
But Morgan, a Democrat, is not surprised that New Hampshire's Senate
race is close, given that Republicans are running the well-known
former Sen. John E. Sununu. She said the Democratic Party has its
faults as well.
“I think that the message for so long has just been, ‘We’re not
Trump,’ and we’ve had a bit of an identity crisis in terms of what
we actually stand for," Morgan said.
She is not alone.
Nationwide, the NYT/Siena poll found that about 6 in 10 registered
voters who identify as Democrats say their party is divided, while
only about 4 in 10 Republicans (37%) say the same about the GOP.
Roughly 6 in 10 Republicans (61%) describe their party as united,
compared to about 4 in 10 Democrats (40%).
But money remains the Democrats' dominant concern as the Republican
spending advantage grows.
Steve Marchand, a Democratic consultant and former New Hampshire
gubernatorial candidate, said Sununu has benefited from national
money that got redirected from other states that are no longer seen
as top targets, while Democrats were slower to invest.
“Democrats, including Pappas, became increasingly frustrated that
national Democrats treated it like a fait accompli, like ‘you guys
have it up there, we’re going to other states,'" Marchand said. "And
a lot of us Democrats were saying, ’Hey, Sununu is going to be
formidable, and New Hampshire is not a right-down-the-ticket kind of
state.'”
Fred Osterholtz, a sales engineer at one of the businesses Pappas
visited, said he’s worried about the huge amounts of money being
poured into the race on Sununu’s behalf as well. But he was
impressed with Pappas' focus.
“I think he’s starting to find some of the messages that will
resonate," Osterholtz said. "I didn’t feel that way six months ago,
but with the world stage the way it is — the costs, the inflation —
they’re latching onto the right things I think.”
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Peoples reported from New York and Sloan reported from Washington.
Associated Press writer Linley Sanders in Washington contributed.
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