2018 Farm Outlook

Page 4 2018 Logan County Farm Outlook Magazine LINCOLN DAILY NEWS Oct. 25, 2018 O h, what a year it’s been! Another year of variability goes down in the books shortly. Remember, these highly variable years will build “averages” for climate. Excess rainfall hit portions of the county at times, while other areas, particularly the northern portions, could smell the rain, but little fell on the fields. Even general areas of the county with abundant rainfall had pockets get missed by the extremely spotty nature of the rains. Harvest continues to wind down. Weather and storage space problems have both slowed the tail end of the harvest. Yes, abundant yields are always what is hoped for, but they have taxed the handling and storage capacity of commercial and private facilities. Central Illinois jumped on harvest early, then some rains came our way. Too late for most crops to benefit, but putting a halt to soybean harvest for an extended period. What does the farm economy look like in our area? It may not be all roses, but looks to be brighter than some other areas of the country. The 2018 crop budgets developed by Gary Schnitkey at the University of Illinois showed corn after soybean acres showing a net of $215 per acre for land cost and operator returns. This figured a yield of 208 bushels and a $3.60 price. The yield is probably there or slightly exceeded, but price is closer to $3.40 for fall. If you follow cash rents, an average of $215 doesn’t cut it in our area. Then there is family living expense to account for out of the bottom line as well. The average from Farm Business Farm Management records in 2017 was almost $80,000 per family for the State of Illinois. The 2019 numbers really don’t improve for corn or soybeans. We anticipated more soybean acres based on pre-season budgets showing a net of $270 per acre, using a yield of 63 and a price of $9.60 per bushel. Yields have exceeded the estimate in many cases, however the price is under $8.00 per bushel. Political uncertainties have had an impact on the prices, but have really taken a toll on soybeans. The North American Free Trade Agreement has now been replaced with a new agreement, but uncertainties in markets are usually not a good thing. The trade negotiations with other areas of the THE SILVER LINING in Logan County’s Ag economy John Fulton CONTINUED