2018 Spring Farm

Page 16 March 22, 2018 2018 Logan County Farm Outlook Magazine LINCOLN DAILY NEWS If that does happen, no one can even guess how long it might take to re-negotiate the re-negotiations. BUT….O’Neil speculates that NAFTA, could drag out long enough that Trump and his opposing candidates could use the agreement as a portion of the 2020 presidential election platforms. O’Neil offers the following explanation: “Even if today’s Mexican negotiating team approves a new NAFTA, tomorrow’s Mexican Congress may not. A July announcement all but pushes the ratification in Mexico to this new body, which will take its seats September 1 (followed by the President’s inauguration three months later). A victory by current front- runner Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a leftist who has already called on the government to stop negotiations and wait for (presumably his) new administration, could make the new legislature less likely to rubber stamp any agreement reached by the preceding administration.” A July announcement also runs into the U.S. electoral calendar. Under current Trade Promotion Authority (which needs to be renewed in July), after reaching an accord U.S. negotiators need to wait least 90 days before officially signing. This waiting period is extended to 180 days if negotiators have made changes to how trade remedies work (which is likely). Then, before bringing it to a vote in the Congress, they need to wait up to another 105 days for an International Trade Commission study on the effects on the U.S. economy. That would put passage in the hands of a new Congress - which could be Democratic, at least in the House. If the original NAFTA fights are any guide, a Democratic-led House would require significant changes before approving a Trump- led bill, pushing passage deep into 2019. And in the face of Democratic opposition, Trump himself might want to keep the NAFTA drama going, using it as a platform for his 2020 reelection campaign. O’Neil’s article wraps up with a summation that after all the talks, all the working groups, and the thousands of hours invested, the end result may very well be nothing. She adds that what does go right in this scenario is that those who benefit from the current NAFTA may stand up and defend it more vigorously than in the past when the agreement was not in the foreground of politics. She offers the best conclusion saying, “But what all the talks and tensions have done is to rally NAFTA’s once passive beneficiaries to its cause. Which means that NAFTA, whether old or new, will likely continue,” and U.S. grain sales to Mexico will continue. [Nila Smith] NAFTA’s Biggest Challenge May Come After the Deal https://www.cfr.org/blog/naftas-biggest- challenge-may-come-after-deal NAFTA’s Economic Impact https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/naftas- economic-impact IFB members re-emphasize support of NAFTA FarmWeekNow.com http://farmweeknow.com/story-ifb-members- re-emphasize-support-nafta-3-168556