2020 Spring Farm Outlook

2020 Logan County Farm Outlook LINCOLN DAILY NEWS March 19, 2020 Page 47 stocks, prices, and income compiled by the NASS, including yield estimates, “would be hard to overestimate the importance to agriculture. Producers, farm organizations, agribusinesses, lawmakers, and government agencies all rely heavily on the information produced by NASS.” The various data is “indispensable for planning and administering related Federal and State programs in such areas as consumer protection, conservation and environmental quality, trade, education, and recreation.” The information ensures “a flow of goods and services among agriculture’s producing, processing, and marketing sectors. Reliable, timely, and detailed crop and livestock statistics help to maintain a stable economic climate and minimize the uncertainties and risks associated with the production, marketing, and distribution of commodities.” “NASS estimates and forecasts are greatly relied upon by the transportation sector, warehouse and storage companies, banks and other lending institutions, commodity traders, and food processors. Those in agribusiness who provide farmers with seeds, equipment, chemicals, and other goods and services study the reports when planning their marketing strategies. “Analysts transform the statistics into projections of coming trends, interpretations of the trends’ economic implications, and evaluations of alternative courses of action for producers, agribusinesses, and policy makers. These analyses multiply the usefulness of NASS statistics.” Reasons the 2019 NASS report may not have included Logan County estimated soybean yields fall into two categories. 1) Planted but did not harvest - Took Prevented Plant Claim for Any Crop, Planted Soybeans as Cover Crop for Hay - Planted, but crop failed - Planted and expected to be harvested for hay/forage - Planted, failed, then planted to other crop 2) Did not plant Intended to be planted, didn’t plant, took prevented plant claim Intended to be planted, didn’t plant, and didn’t take prevented plant claim While the exact reason(s) for the lack of estimated yield results is not stated, it is easy to take an educated guess at what happened to soybeans in Logan County in 2019. The central Illinois 2019 crop year was late due to cold, late due to wet conditions. Winter cold set the soil frost layer deep, late season cold kept soils a little too cool for good seed germination. The warming days that finally brought the soil temps up also brought repetitive heavy rains that continued to July 4th. Saturated and ponded soils kept farmers from getting into the field at the risk of getting stuck, causing soil compaction and potential seed rot. For producers that got into the fields late, low areas were often not successful at producing plants, leaving little or no time to replant and get a harvest. Using the average of six reporting adjacent counties, 61.6 bu/acre, DeWitt was also no report for soybeans, and seeing end of season fields with scattered loses, the Logan County average may be guesstimated at something less 61.6 bu/acre soybeans in 2019.