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Weekly outlook

Pork prices

[DEC. 3, 2002]  URBANA -- The odds suggests that hog producers will find their Christmas stockings filled with hog prices on the way up, said a Purdue University Extension marketing specialist.

"The odds suggest that hog prices are headed upward," said Chris Hurt. "The hog market has had a rugged year through November."

Pork production has been up 2.6 percent on 2.2 percent higher slaughter numbers. Prices through November have averaged $35 compared with nearly $46 for 2001, and costs have escalated by about $3 per live hundredweight since the summer's drought.

"Bullish indicators, however, now greatly outnumber bearish arguments," he said. "The first friendly indicator is an expectation for lower pork supplies in December and through the winter. USDA inventory numbers indicate a 1 percent smaller December slaughter, followed by a drop of 2 to 3 percent through the winter.

"Secondly, with higher corn prices this fall and the depressed hog prices, marketing weights have come down. October and November weights were down about 2 pounds per carcass, or around 1 percent. Weights will likely continue to be moderate in the coming year."

And, Hurt added, the bullish arguments continue. Sow slaughter remains high since producers began liquidating breeding herds at the height of last summer's drought and resulting elevated feed prices. The rate of sow slaughter began to rise in April and reached its peak in July, when it stood at 20 percent greater than the same month in the previous year.

"But even since last summer, the rate of sow slaughter has averaged 12 percent higher," said Hurt. "This means that the breeding herd will continue to shrink into 2003. Another factor is that excess pork in cold storage will likely continue to be reduced. In August, cold storage stocks were 39 percent greater than the previous year. Today they are down to 14 percent greater."

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The bullish arguments can be extended to include an improving U.S. and world economy and a bullish cattle market that will ultimately result in some consumer substitution of pork for beef. Based on the USDA's Monthly Hogs and Pigs report, the number of sows and gilts bred dropped under year-earlier levels beginning in June of 2002. These smaller farrowings will start to show up as smaller slaughter in the month of December, just in time for the Christmas season. Canadian imports, which were up sharply in the first-half of 2002, have moderated some in the past two months, dropping by 8 percent compared with the same period in 2001.

"And finally, traders in the lean hog futures market are optimistic that prices are ready to recover," said Hurt.

On Nov. 29, February futures suggested live hog prices near $40 for February, $44 by May and $48 by June.

"My price projections for 51 to 52 percent lean carcasses on a live weight basis are similar," said Hurt. "I expect the mid-$30s by the end of the year, then improving to the upper $30s for a first-quarter average, the low $40s for a second-quarter average and the low to mid-$40s for the summer quarter.

"If one doubts that prices can recover as much as suggested, keep in mind that hog prices have been surprisingly responsive to small supply changes in the past several years. As an example, in 2002, pork supplies will finish the year about 2.5 percent higher, yet prices will be down about 23 percent. For 2003, pork supplies will move downward, and a sharp price response to the upside can be expected."

In addition, Hurt believes it is likely that the breeding herd will continue to move lower through at least the first half of 2003, with strong prices continuing into late 2003 and early 2004.

"It's been another year of endurance for pork producers, but considerable improvement should soon be on the way," said Hurt.

[U of I news release]

[DEC. 2, 2002]  The ag issues team and the food science and technology team of the Hartsburg-Emden FFA chapter were selected as state winners in recent competition.

The five members of the ag issues team, Matthew Wrage, Nick Alberts, Brittney Kavanaugh, Kyle Hoerbert and Kory Leesman, presented pros and cons on the topic of "Upgrading the Locks and Dams on the Illinois and Mississippi Rivers." The participants role-played the major constituents involved in this issue. The team also met recently with U.S. Rep. Ray LaHood concerning the issue.

[Photos provided by Hartem FFA]
[Left to right:  Kory Leesman, Nick Alberts, Kyle Hoerbert, Rep. LaHood, Brittney Kavanaugh, Alyssa Moehring and Matthew Wrage]

As state winners, the team will now represent the Illinois FFA Association at the 2003 National FFA Convention. This is the third state-winning team competing in the Ag Issues Career Development Event for the Hartsburg-Emden FFA chapter. 

[News release]

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[Members of the Hartsburg-Emden FFA ag issues team, which won in state competition:  (left to right) Matthew Wrage, Brittney Kavanaugh, Kyle Hoerbert, Kory Leesman and Nick Alberts] 

[Members of the Hartsburg-Emden FFA state champion team in food science and technology are Alyssa Moehring, Krista Ubbenga, Natalie Coers and Brittney Kavanaugh with Drew Dediraemaker, state FFA president.]

Latest corn, soybean results available from U of I variety testing program

[DEC. 2, 2002]  URBANA — The University of Illinois has released the 2002 results from its variety testing program for corn and soybeans. The data from these latest trials are available in both printed form and on the Internet at http://vt.cropsci.uiuc.edu.

"One of the most important production decisions facing producers each year is which variety or hybrid to grow on their farm," said Emerson Nafziger, crop scientist with U of I Extension. "The variety testing program in the Department of Crop Sciences at the University of Illinois is one of the largest such programs in the country. It provides accurate and unbiased performance data on a large number of varieties and hybrids so that growers can make the best choice possible on what to plant."

He points out that the program has served as a "neutral testing ground" for more than 60 years for corn and for two to three decades for other crops. The corn and soybean entries were tested at a dozen sites throughout Illinois.

"There were 640 varieties from 60 companies in the latest soybean trials, while the corn trials included 395 hybrids from 56 different seed companies," Nafziger said. "We also are testing a number of grain sorghum hybrids and forage varieties."

The quickest way to find results from these trials is on the website for the U of I’s Department of Crop Sciences. Printed versions were published in Illinois Agrinews during mid-November. Paper copies can also be obtained from most U of I Extension offices after early December.

The yield data in this year’s results reflect the wide variability that was seen across the state during the past growing season for both corn and soybeans.

"Several locations in western and northern Illinois had average corn yields of more than 200 bushels an acre, with a high of 233 bushels per acre at Monmouth," Nafziger said. "The east central and southern areas of the state did not fare as well, with two locations in south central Illinois yielding less than 60 bushels per acre in the trials."

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He notes that soybeans followed a similar trend, with average yields of more than 60 bushels per acre in the west and east-central parts of the state and less than 30 bushels per acre in south-central Illinois.

"The trials were performed on a regional basis, with averages calculated over two or three individual sites in order to better predict future performance," Nafziger said. "Except for some publicly developed varieties, entries in these trials are all made by commercial seed companies, all of whom are invited annually to participate."

He points out that, while company data and recommendations are essential in deciding what seed to buy this fall for planting in 2003, the U of I variety trial results represent the only place to find so many hybrids and varieties compared with each other in the same trials.

"Companies know their products better than anyone else, but they may not have much information on how their varieties perform compared to those from other companies," Nafziger said. "Many producers also like to double-check to see how the seed they ordered stacks up against the competition. If the seed company participates in the university trials, these trials usually represent the best source of such information."

[U of I news release]

Honors & Awards

[NOV. 13, 2002]  Logan County had its annual 4-H Achievement Night on Nov. 7 at the Lincoln Park District Rec Center. Approximately 115 4-H members, leaders and families came to congratulate the award recipients.

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Home and Family

[Logan County Extension news release
by Amy Hyde]

Ag Announcements

Olympia FFA Alumni news

[NOV. 8, 2002]  What do a tree, a chain saw and a TV have in common? The Olympia FFA Alumni chapter is selling raffle tickets for these items. The low-priced tickets provide a chance at a 36-inch Zenith color TV, a Stihl Farm Boss chain saw and a 1.5- to 3-inch diameter sunset red maple tree.

The chapter draws in members from McLean, Tazewell, Woodford, DeWitt and Logan counties.

Proceeds from the raffle will help support the agriculture program of the Olympia School District.

The drawing for the items will be Jan. 11, 2003, which is the tentative date for the FFA alumni banquet.

For more information on purchasing a raffle ticket or about the FFA Alumni chapter, contact any member of the chapter or call (309) 379-5911.

[News release]

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