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Weekly outlook

Production concerns

[JULY 3, 2002]  URBANA — Historically, weather markets tend to result in corn and soybean prices peaking in the pre-harvest period, said a University of Illinois Extension marketing specialist.

"However, there are some recent exceptions to that rule," Darrel Good added. "In 1993-94, the full impact of weather on production was not revealed until January after harvest, resulting in cash prices peaking later in the year — January for corn and May for soybeans.

"In 1995-96, a small crop was followed by extremely strong demand, resulting in cash prices peaking in July for both corn and soybeans."

Good’s comments came as he reviewed recent USDA reports. The USDA’s June report on acreage contained a larger-than-expected estimate of planted and harvested acreage of corn for grain in the United States this year. Planted acreage of corn is estimated at 78.947 million, nearly 3.2 million more than planted last year and only 100,000 less than revealed in the March report of prospective plantings.

"The market had anticipated more than a million-acre reduction from March intentions," said Good. "Acreage is less than indicated in March in Indiana and Ohio but exceeds intentions in Illinois, Iowa and Minnesota."

 

The USDA projects harvested acreage of corn for grain at 72.081 million, 3.273 more than harvested last year. Harvested acreage of feed grains (corn, sorghum, oats and barley) is projected at 87.121 million, 3.535 million more than harvested last year. A decline in sorghum acreage is more than offset by an expected increase in harvested acreage of oats and barley.

"Even though planted acreage of corn exceeded expectations, the market remains concerned about the potential size of the 2002 harvest," Good said. "There has been a recent tendency for the final estimate of planted acreage to be less than the June estimate. That has been the case in each of the past seven years and in nine of the past 10 years.

"The difference has been as little as 24,000 acres and as much as 1.32 million in 1995. More than acreage, however, the market is concerned about potential yield of the 2002 crop. Late planting in the eastern Corn Belt is being followed by above-normal temperatures and lack of precipitation in many areas. That pattern is expected to continue in the first half of July."

In addition to concerns about crop size, the corn market has also received some support from the USDA’s June report on grain stocks. That report showed that June 1 inventories of corn totaled 3.594 billion bushels, 330 million less than on the same day last year and about 15 million less than the average trade guess. Exports during the third quarter of the 2001-02 marketing year were about 50 million bushels larger than during the same quarter last year, and domestic use was nearly 30 million larger.

 

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For soybeans, the USDA’s June report revealed plantings of 72.993 million acres, 1.112 million less than planted last year and only 27,000 more than indicated in March. The market had anticipated a much larger increase due to the lateness of planting the corn crop in the eastern Corn Belt.

"Soybean acreage is larger than March intentions in Arkansas, Indiana, Mississippi and Ohio, but those increases were offset by declines in Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota and North Dakota," said Good. "The USDA projects harvested acreage of soybeans at 72.029 million, 971,000 less than harvested last year.

"Like corn, there is a tendency for the final estimate of soybean acreage to be less than the June estimate. That has been the case in each of the previous five years and eight of the past 10 years. Except for 2001, the changes from June to the final acreage estimate were generally small."

The USDA’s June report on grain stocks revealed June 1 soybean inventories of 684 million bushels, about 24 million less than on the same date last year and about five million less than the average trade guess. Exports were down nearly 70 million bushels in the third quarter of the marketing year compared to the same period last year, but the domestic crush was about 24 million bushels larger.

"The smaller-than-expected estimate of planted acreage of soybeans, along with less-than-ideal growing conditions, creates a lot of uncertainty about the potential size of the 2002 U.S. crop," said Good. "The crop may be small enough to require a reduction in the rate of use of U.S. soybeans during the 2002-03 marketing year."

For wheat, the USDA’s June report indicated that planted acreage of all classes of wheat was about one million more than indicated in March. Most of the increase, 877,000 acres, was in spring wheat other than durum. Still, harvested acreage of all classes of wheat is expected to be about one million less than harvested last year even though seedings are up by about 470,000 acres.

"Corn and soybean prices will continue to be influenced by weather conditions and crop conditions as reflected in the USDA’s weekly report," said Good.

[U of I news release]


Swine odor field day set

[JULY 2, 2002]  URBANA — A field day aimed at updating swine producers on the current situation regarding aspects of manure management and odors from swine units will be July 10 at the Illinois State University Farm on Gregory Street in Normal. Sponsoring the event are the Illinois Pork Producers, ISU, the Illinois Council on Food and Agricultural Research (C-FAR), and the University of Illinois.

"The bulk of the program will focus on the results of research being done in Illinois, some funded by the Illinois Department of Agriculture’s Sustainable Ag Grants Program and some by C-FAR as part of its research initiative on swine odor and waste management," said Michael Ellis, U of I professor of animal sciences, who heads the latter project.

A number of topics will be covered at the field day, which runs from 9:30 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. Included on the agenda are odor sampling and measurement, nutrient reduction and management techniques, odor reduction technologies, waste processing technologies, community and legal issues, producer education and training materials, and other swine management issues.

People interested in attending should contact Paul Walker, ISU Department of Agriculture, 5020 AGR, ISU, Normal, IL 61790-5020; phone (309) 438-3881; fax (309) 438-5653; or e-mail: pwalker@ilstu.edu.

[U of I news release]


Farms granted centennial status

[JULY 1, 2002]  SPRINGFIELD — The Illinois Department of Agriculture has designated farms owned by John Warner IV of Clinton and Elizabeth H. O’Herin, principal partner of C.H. Moore Farms L.P., as Centennial Farms.

To qualify as a Centennial Farm, a straight or collateral line of descendants must own the agricultural property for at least 100 years.

"I am pleased to be able to recognize John Warner IV and Elizabeth H. O’Herin," said Agriculture Director Joe Hampton. "This designation honors them today and their ancestors of yesterday who labored through prosperity and adversity to maintain their family farms.

"The Centennial Farm program helps to reinforce that family farming remains a viable entity in Illinois agriculture."

The Illinois Centennial Farms program has recognized more than 7,000 farms since its inception in 1972.

John Warner IV is president of Moore & Warner Farm Management in Clinton, Ill. The firm currently manages farmland in Illinois, Iowa, Kansas and Colorado. They offer professional farm management services for landowners anywhere in the United States.

[News release]


Biotech crop use benefits environment

[JUNE 29, 2002]  The Council for Agricultural Science and Technology, a non-profit consortium of scientists, released a comprehensive report on June 25 detailing the environmental safety and environmental benefits of commercial biotechnology-derived soy, corn and cotton crops.

"In the past, isolated studies regarding the environmental impact of biotechnology-derived crops appeared to present conflicting results," said Teresa Gruber, the executive vice president of CAST. "Teams of researchers assembled by CAST have reviewed and analyzed the published studies in the context of current farming practices, and the results clearly show that soil, air and water quality are enhanced through the responsible use of current biotechnology-derived soybean, corn and cotton crops."

Three independent teams of CAST researchers reviewed the available scientific literature to compare the environmental impacts of biotechnology-derived and traditional crops. The researchers are affiliated with Washington State University, the University of Illinois, Clemson University, and the National Center for Food and Agricultural Policy.

"The study was based on nine criteria, including changes in pesticide use patterns, impacts on beneficial insects, pest resistance, soil management, land use efficiency, impacts on biodiversity and, of course, human exposure," said Allan Felsot, Washington State University professor.

Specific findings for one of the most widely planted biotech-derived crops, herbicide-tolerant soybeans, include the following:

•  Soil quality — No-till soybean acreage in the United States has increased significantly since the introduction of herbicide-tolerant soybeans. No-till often results in less soil erosion, dust and pesticide runoff as well as increased soil moisture retention.

•  Water quality — Use of biotechnology-derived soybeans enables farmers to use a more benign herbicide that rapidly dissipates in the soil and water.

•  Air quality — Greenhouse gas emissions from some farm operations decreased by an estimated 88 percent as a result of biotech soybeans planted in a no-tillage system, which may help slow global warming.

•  Biodiversity — The no-till practices commonly associated with biotech soybeans provide a more favorable habitat for birds and other wildlife. No-tillage systems provide food and shelter for wildlife such as pheasants and ducks.

•  Land use efficiency — Biotechnology-derived soybeans may lead to increased yields through improved weed control and the adoption of narrow-row spacing.

The study found similar benefits for corn and cotton crops derived through biotechnology. David Onstad from the University of Illinois was one of two scientists who prepared the corn portion of the report.

 

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"We literally reviewed hundreds of scientific documents, and we concluded that biotechnology-derived corn has had a positive effect on the environment," Onstad said.

Corn was a more complicated crop to review because there is Bt corn to control insects, there are herbicide-resistant hybrids, and there are hybrids used for animal feed as well as human food.

"Definitely, Bt corn has reduced pesticide use," Onsatd said. "And there was no evidence that non-target species are affected in a negative way by biotechnology-derived hybrids. There was no evidence that these hybrids have or will become off-site weeds either."

"Also, we expect that human exposure to toxins has been reduced by the use of biotechnology-derived corn hybrids — both toxins from chemical pesticides as well as naturally occurring toxins such as aflatoxin."

Onstad says that although we have had positive environmental impacts from biotechnology-derived corn, soybean and cotton, we need to continue to monitor present and future biotechnology-derived crops and conduct public-based research to measure their efficacy. He says the report contains 10 recommendations about the research needed to effectively monitor emerging biotech crops and technologies.

The USDA’s "Prospective Plantings," published in March, estimated that 20 percent of Illinois’ corn acreage was planted with biotechnology-derived insect protection and 3 percent was planted with biotechnology-derived herbicide tolerance. The same report estimated that 71 percent of Illinois’ soybean acreage was planted with biotechnology-derived herbicide tolerance.

The United Soybean Board, a nonprofit organization representing soybean farmers in United States, commissioned the report.

Founded in 1972, CAST is a nonprofit organization composed of scientific societies and many individual, student, company, nonprofit and associate society members. CAST assembles, interprets and communicates science-based information regionally, nationally and internationally on food, fiber, agricultural, natural resource and related societal and environmental issues to stakeholders — legislators, regulators, policymakers, the media, the private sector and the public.

The full report is available at the following Web address:

http://www.cast-science.org/biotechnology/
index.html#biotechcropsbenefit
.

[U of I news release]


U of I report provides guidance
on updating acres, yields

[JUNE 27, 2002]  URBANA — A recent University of Illinois Extension report examines changes in the new farm bill and offers producers a method for selecting between four alternatives in updating acres and yields. "Updating Acres and Yields under the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act of 2002" was prepared by Gary Schnitkey and Dale Lattz, U of I Extension farm management specialists.

"The new law includes provisions authorizing direct and counter-cyclical payments for 2002 through 2007 crops," said Schnitkey. "These payments will be determined using base acres and program yields. Farmers and landowners have one-time decisions to make concerning these acres and yields. They either can ‘update’ acres to reflect acres from 1998 through 2001 or they can ‘not update’ and have acres based on those used to calculate Agricultural Marketing Transition Act (AMTA) payments.

"If base acres are updated, farmers also can update yields used to determine counter-cyclical payments."

Under the new law, three types of payments are available for program crops — direct payments, counter-cyclical payments and loan deficiency/marketing loan payments.

Direct payments are available for corn, soybeans, wheat, oats, grain sorghum, barley, upland cotton and rice. Payments will be made for 2002 through 2007 crops, and the payment will be the same in each year. Payments for a crop on a farm will equal per-bushel payment rate times program yield times the result of base acres times .85.

"The 2002 program implemented a counter-cyclical program for all program crops," said Schnitkey. "Those payments equal the trigger price, which is the higher of loan rate or season-average price, times yield times base acres times .85."

The trigger price, he explained, equals a target price minus the direct payment rate. The season-average price is calculated by the USDA for 12 months, with the first month occurring near the beginning of harvest.

 

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"The yield is an important variable that farmers have to make a decision about," he noted.

Schnitkey summarized the options available to producers.

"When base acres are not updated, programs yields are also used to determine counter-cyclical payments," he said. "Farmers can choose to update acres and use program yields in determining counter-cyclical payments. Another option is to update acres and use the 70 percent difference method to update yields. Finally, farmers can update acres and use the 93.5 percent method to update yields."

Schnitkey and Lattz note that in some cases farmers will have to trade off the corn base acre for the ability to update yields. For example, some farms have a relatively high corn base compared to the current corn plantings. Updating acres will result in the loss of corn base acres, suggesting that the farm maintain its current base acres. However, maintaining current base acres will not allow a farmer to update yields, meaning that the counter-cyclical payments will be lower than when base acres are updated.

The report examines a number of options available to producers in making these choices.

Copies of the report can be accessed on the Web at http://web.aces.uiuc.edu/farm.doc/
manage/newsletters/fefo02_11.html
.

[U of I news release]


Honors & Awards

Hartem FFA brings home awards

[JUNE 29, 2002]  Hartsburg-Emden FFA members recently attended the 74th Illinois FFA Convention. Chapter members received numerous awards and recognitions as well as enjoying the main session.

Brittney Kavanaugh received a blue ribbon for her agri-science fair project at the state competition.

Kent Leesman was recognized for his outstanding achievements this past year as a top chapter president, Star Farmer finalist, Grain Production Proficiency winner, and National Risk Management Essay winner.

Natalie Coers was recognized for her achievements as a top ten chapter reporter, as well as participating in the state FFA band.

Nic Coers, Daniel Eeten and Kent Leesman were honored to receive their state FFA degrees at the convention.

Although individual chapter members brought home the awards, the Hartem FFA chapter also gained recognition. Hartem FFA won the Co-op Award, Triple Crown Heritage Award, Century Challenge Sweepstakes Award, and was named a Gold Emblem Chapter. The convention proved to be a show of excellence for all of the FFA members and chapters from across the state.

[News release]


[Kent Leesman and adviser Betsy Pech are recognized for the risk management essay.]


[Hartem FFA state degree recipients]


[Hartem FFA members ready for the closing of "Journey of a Lifetime."]


Logan County 4-H Bicycle Show results

[JUNE 26, 2002]  The Logan County 4-H Bicycle Show was on June 15. Ten 4-H’ers participated in this year’s show. Mathew Runyon of Broadwell won the bicycle award, donated by Lincoln McDonald’s Restaurant.

Chosen as state fair delegates were Mathew Runyon of Broadwell, Bicycle Adventures II; Ben Buse, Beason, Bicycle Adventures II; Kelli Brooks, Lincoln, Bicycle Adventures II; and John Brooks, Lincoln, Bicycle Adventures III.

Chosen as a state fair alternate was Zack Huffer, Lincoln, Bicycle Adventures II.

All 4-H participants and their ratings are listed below.

2002 4-H Bicycle Show results

Bicycle award

Mathew Runyon, Broadwell

Top rating award

Max Buse, Beason

 

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Blue awards

Bicycle Adventures I — David Carter, Lincoln; Ryan Huffer, Lincoln; Hayden Zimmer, Lincoln

Bicycle Adventures II — Douglas Alberts, Hartsburg; Kelli Brooks, Lincoln; Ben Buse, Beason; Max Buse, Beason; Zack Huffer, Lincoln; Mathew Runyon, Broadwell

Bicycle Adventures III — John Brooks, Lincoln

State fair delegates

Bicycle Adventures II — Kelli Brooks, Ben Buse, Mathew Runyon

Bicycle Adventures III — John Brooks, Lincoln

State fair alternate

Bicycle Adventures II — Zack Huffer, Lincoln

For further information on Logan County 4-H, contact the Logan County 4-H office, 980 N. Postville Drive, Lincoln, IL 62656; or phone (217) 732-8289.

[News release]


Ag Announcements

Special baking contests at state fair

[JULY 1, 2002]  Contestants are invited to prepare gingerbread houses and Spam recipes to enter at the Illinois State Fair in August.

Awards will be given for the most creative entries in the Brer Rabbit® Molasses Gingerbread House Contest at the state fair. Both beginners and gingerbread house enthusiasts are invited to compete for cash and prizes. In 2001, judges picked winning entries ranging from traditional to elaborate, including a castle, a detailed tree house with garden and another resembling the "Old Woman in a Shoe." Any theme entry is welcome that uses Brer Rabbit molasses and is up to a foot tall, wide and deep, base not included. Entrants must also bake and enter one dozen gingerbread cookies.

Winners are selected based on appearance (50 percent), originality and creativity (40 percent), and taste (10 percent). Creators are awarded $150 for first place, $75 for second and $25 for third. People of any age may enter, with one entry per person or group. Several people may work on one entry, but one person represents the group. 

 

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The Illinois State Fair will be one of 70 fairs hosting the Spam® Oven Roasted Turkey Contest. Using the Spam turkey and up to nine other ingredients, contestants are to create an original main dish, appetizer, casserole, stew, stir-fry, salad sandwich or any other recipe. To focus on convenience, cooking time may not exceed 30 minutes.

Judges select winners based on taste appeal (40 percent), appearance (30 percent) and originality (30 percent). The three best entries win cash awards of $150, $50 and $25, and first-place winners advance to national judging for a $2,500 shopping spree and an all-expense-paid trip to Minneapolis.

To enter either contest, contact the entry department at the Illinois State Fair, 782-6661, by July 15. More details for the gingerbread contest are on page 90, and those for the Spam contest are on page 86 of the general premium book.

[News release]


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