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ACES open house

[MARCH 13, 2003]  "Where Do We Grow From Here?” is the theme of this year's 14th annual open house at the University of Illinois College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences. The open house features educational displays, hands-on activities and demonstrations.

When: Friday, March 14, and Saturday, March 15, from 9 a.m. to 4 p.m.

Where: Exhibits and demonstrations will be in four ACES buildings at the south end of the U of I campus in Urbana:

  • Plant Sciences Laboratory, corner of Dorner and Peabody

  • Stock Pavilion, Pennsylvania Avenue

  • ACES Library, Information and Alumni Center, north on Goodwin Drive off Pennsylvania Avenue

  • Agricultural Engineering and Sciences Building, Pennsylvania Avenue

Parking:  Headquarters will be located in the Plant Sciences Laboratory, 1201 W. Dorner Drive. On Saturday, free parking is available on streets and in campus parking lots.

For additional information:  http://www.aces.uiuc.edu/openhouse
Pick up a brochure when you arrive at any of the locations list above. The brochure will include a complete listing of displays, demonstrations and tours.

[University of Illinois news release]


Weekly outlook on markets

[MARCH 13, 2003]  URBANA -- Compared with a typical year, there are a few more uncertainties about the demand for old crop corn and soybeans this marketing year, said a University of Illinois Extension marketing specialist.

"Still, the focus will be largely on 2003 production prospects," said Darrel Good. Good's comments came as he completed a midyear assessment of the corn and soybean markets.

"March 1 marks the midpoint of the corn and soybean marketing year. It has been a bit of a tradition to review the progress of corn and soybean consumption at this time of transition from old crop to new crop focus."

Good noted that the export picture for both corn and soybeans is somewhat confused due to the large difference in export estimates among the various reports.

"In the case of corn, the USDA export inspections report shows a 13.4 percent decline in shipments from the first half of the 2001-02 marketing year to the first half of the 2002-03 marketing year, September through February," he said. "The USDA's export sales report shows an 8.3 percent decline for the same time period.

"The Census Bureau export estimates through December showed a decline of 4.8 percent, while USDA reports through December showed declines of 9.5 percent and 5.7 percent."

For soybeans, the USDA export inspection report shows a 2.2 percent decline in shipments during the first half of the current marketing year, and the USDA export sales report is consistent, showing a 2.1 percent decline.

"However, the Census Bureau estimates through December showed a decline of 13.8 percent, while USDA estimates for the same period indicated declines of 8.6 percent and 8 percent," Good said. "It appears that Census Bureau estimates, which became the official estimates, have overstated corn exports and understated soybean exports. The discrepancies suggest some errors in reporting to the Census Bureau. If the discrepancies continue, the USDA will report a very large residual use of soybeans in the supply-demand balance sheet and will understate feed and residual use of corn."

Typically, the rate of soybean exports declines sharply beginning in March or April due to the availability of South American soybeans. The extremely large crop currently being harvested in South America suggests that the rate of U.S. soybean exports will drop more than the normal amount this year.

However, USDA estimates show that as of Feb. 27, 148 million bushels of U.S. soybeans had been sold for export, but not yet shipped.

"That is only 2 percent less than unshipped sales of a year ago," Good noted. "Export shipments plus sales account for 96.3 percent of projected exports for the year, with 26 weeks remaining in the marketing year. China accounts for 25 percent of the unshipped sales. Unless all of the sales to China are canceled, it appears that exports of U.S. soybeans will exceed the current USDA projection."

 

 

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U.S. corn exports show less of a seasonal pattern than U.S. soybean exports. In three of the past four years, shipments have been slow in the December through February period but recovered in the last half of the marketing year. Some hope for a late recovery in corn exports this year was generated by very large sales during the week that ended Feb. 27. Even so, unshipped sales as of Feb. 27 totaled only 215 million bushels, 25 percent less than on the same date last year. Unless sales continue to be large for several weeks, shipments for the year may fall short of the current USDA projection.

Good noted that the domestic soybean crush has also slowed recently. For the first five months of the marketing year, the crush totaled 710.4 million bushels, 3.5 percent less than the total during the same period last year. For the entire 2002-03 marketing year, the USDA has projected a 2.6 percent decline in the domestic crush. A sharp reduction in soybean meal exports accounts for the slower pace of crush.

"The USDA reports meal shipments through Feb. 27 at 3.04 million tons, 16 percent less than the total of a year ago," said Good. "Unshipped sales as of Feb. 27 totaled only 1.4 million tons, 32 percent less than on the same date last year. A shortfall in the domestic crush may partly offset the impact of larger-than-expected exports."

Domestic corn consumption reveals two different trends. Processing use of corn is up sharply, driven by increased use of corn for ethanol production. Use for all food and industrial purposes during the 2002-03 marketing year may exceed the USDA projection of 2.265 billion bushels. Feed and residual use of corn during the first quarter of the marketing year was estimated to be 7.6 percent less than during the same quarter last year.

"Part of the reason for the large decline was the Census Bureau estimate of exports during the quarter," said Good. "Using the USDA's estimate of exports, feed and residual use during the quarter was down 6.2 percent. The March 1 “Grain Stocks” report, to be released on March 31, will provide an estimate of feed and residual use of corn during the second quarter of the marketing year.

"The rate of decline compared to last year is expected to be smaller than during the first quarter. For the year, the USDA projects a 4.7 percent decline in feed and residual use of corn."

[University of Illinois news release]


Conservation program should
focus on sloping lands

[MARCH 11, 2003]  URBANA -- A federal-state program to remove environmentally sensitive cropland from production in Illinois would operate more efficiently if it focused more on sloping lands near rivers and streams, according to a University of Illinois study. While the study finds that the Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program has been effective in the watersheds examined in Illinois, the costs have been greater than necessary.

"We wanted to examine ways to improve the targeting of land retirement programs to achieve environmental benefits at least cost, and we focused on the Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program, a federal-state partnership program to retire environmentally sensitive cropland in the Illinois River watershed," said Madhu Khanna, an associate professor of environmental economics in the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.

Co-authoring the study were Rick Farnsworth and Hayri Onal, both faculty members in the department, and Wanhong Yang, a recent doctoral degree graduate.

Funding for the study came from the Illinois Council on Food and Agricultural Research.

The CREP initiative seeks to retire 232,000 acres in the watershed for periods of 15 to 35 years or permanently at a projected cost of $500 million. Landowners receive yearly payments for enrolling eligible cropland in the program. Payments vary according to the soil type in each enrolled parcel, sign-up bonuses and other one-time payments for applying specific conservation practices and protecting the land beyond the minimum 15 years.

 

Researchers focused on the lower Sangamon River watershed. Its 129,000 acres includes 58 percent in cropland. They evaluated the extent to which actual Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program enrollments in the area are achieving the sediment abatement goals. They also compared actual acres enrolled, program costs and sediment abated to the least cost results from a simulation model. The economic-hydrologic simulation model uses detailed spatial data about actual cropland characteristics and location in the region to identify the least cost combination of cropland parcels that achieved the program's sediment reduction goal at least cost. Payments to landowners equaled or exceeded expected returns to grain production.

"The model indicated a parcel of land should be retired if the value of the environmental benefits from retiring it was greater than the foregone profits from using it for cropping," Khanna said. "We should retire parcels that generate a large amount of sediment that gets into the river, and that would help to capture sediment before it enters the river and where the foregone profits would be low.

"We found that about 6,600 acres in this watershed had been successfully enrolled and would reduce sedimentation by 24 percent but at a higher cost than could have been achieved. It was costing about $1 million in terms of lost profits, and the same sediment abatement goal could have been achieved for about $600,000."

 

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The difference in actual and estimated costs can be attributed largely to the substitution of relatively flat, highly productive flood plain land with sloping, less productive, less costly land adjacent to streams.

"Ninety-six percent of the reduction in sediment loadings in the Illinois River basin could be achieved by focusing more on the 65 percent of the land that is within 900 feet of rivers, streams and waterways," said Khanna.

She believes that CREP can be made even more successful by continually adapting the program as new information becomes available. Three minor changes could substantially decrease costs and possibly contribute to the establishment of long stretches of continuous buffers along many of the streams in the Illinois River watershed.

She suggests the following: "First, the eligible zone should be restricted to a buffer area that is 300-900 feet wide and narrower than the typical flood plain along the main tributaries of the Illinois River. Second, the eligibility requirements should be modified to allow the enrollment of sloping, less productive cropland adjacent to streams.

"The requirement for enrolling 85 percent of cropland from riparian areas and only 15 percent from highly erodible areas adjacent to riparian areas works against the enrollment of sloping land," she notes.

Finally, Khanna recommends program payments tied more directly to environmental benefits. Currently, the program's payments are tied to each parcel's inherent agricultural productivity. Payments should also be tied to the environmental benefits (e.g., sediment reduction) each parcel generates. Under this scenario, sloping, less productive cropland adjacent to streams would likely receive higher payments than relatively flat, flood plain land that does not contribute much to sediment loadings in the river. The decision by landowners remains the same: Produce crops or provide an environmental service, whichever is more profitable.

[University of Illinois news release]


Deadlines for farmers loom

[MARCH 10, 2003]  With all the other concerns farmers have in their day-to-day operations this time of year, a couple of important dates loom large. The first target date is the Federal Crop Insurance deadline of March 15 for sign-up or changes.

There is an excellent set of materials on the Farm.doc website for you to use in selecting products and finding out about coverage options and cost. Go to: http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/
cropins/evaluator/index_2003_IL.asp
.

Federal Crop Insurance should be viewed as a tool to manage risk. It is especially important when we look at the increasing frequency and amounts of cash rent in our area.

The next deadline is for farm program sign-up at the FSA office, if you wish to prove yields. That deadline is April 1. Essentially everyone will need to prove soybean yields for the new program. If you haven't been in or made an appointment, you should do so immediately since there is only a limited amount of time left.

When you are considering options for the farm program, check out the calculator on Farm.doc to assist you. The URL is http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/
manage/FarmBill/decisiontool.html
.

 

 

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Extension Week

The West Central Region has designated April 7-12 as Extension Week. Logan County has had Extension since February of 1918. It began with a farm adviser named Elmer Ebersol, who sold memberships in the combined Extension and Farm Bureau system that remained in place until the 1950s.

The 4-H program began about 1920, with the first 4-H clubs focusing on specific projects of swine and corn. In 1923 a push began for clubs based on home economics, and the push was on to identify volunteer leaders.

Home economics was added to Extension a few years later with the first "home advisor." Focuses were on running a household and home food preservation.

Logan County added an aggressive Community Resource Development program in the late 1970s. This program was responsible for many of the communitywide surveys done in the early '80s. These surveys even led to removal of Lincoln's parking meters around the square and municipal parking lots.

Extension continues to evolve as needs of residents change. Major thrusts have begun in horticultural programming, family nutrition programs and non-traditional youth programs.

Continuing media releases throughout the next month will highlight some of Extension's offerings.

[John Fulton]


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