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"This shift in production could cause a small drag on national
corn yield; however, weather and other factors likely will be
more important in determining 2007 yields," said Gary Schnitkey,
who wrote "Geographical Distribution of Corn and Soybean
Planting Intentions," a
report available online at U of I Extension's Farmdoc site.
The report includes a color map showing the projected increases
nationwide plus a table comparing planted acres in 2006 and 2007
on a state-by-state basis. Projected increases are based on the
USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service's report on
planting intentions.
While Illinois and Iowa have the largest projected increases
in corn acres in 2007, the next largest increases are in North
Dakota, Nebraska, Missouri, Indiana, Mississippi and Minnesota.
The spread of increased corn acreage, though, means that the
percentage share of the Corn Belt states in total acreage will
decline by 2 percentage points.
"In general, share of acreage is shifting to the Delta
states, Missouri and North Dakota," said Schnitkey.
These regional shifts could reduce the expected U.S. yield
for 2007 as the states with higher expected yields (the Corn
Belt) have smaller acreage shares. Schnitkey calculates that
this means a 2007 yield one-half bushel below the 2006 yield.
"Larger acreages of corn also may result in lower expected
yields as lower productivity farmland is brought into corn
production," he added. "However, acreage increases in previous
years have not led to statistically detectable decreases in
yields.
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 "More corn-after-corn production likely will occur mostly in
Illinois and Iowa, states that have expected yields above the U.S.
average."
Schnitkey believes that, overall, decreases in the expected U.S.
corn yield in 2007 will be small.
At the same time that many states are increasing corn acres,
several states in the Southeast are projected to increase soybean
acres, Schniktey said. These include Georgia, Alabama, North
Carolina, South Carolina and Florida.
"The five states in the Southeast projected to gain soybean acres
will gain in share of total production," he said. "In aggregate,
these five states are projected to gain 0.6 percentage points of
share of production between 2006 and 2007. The gain is relatively
small because these states have relatively few acres to begin with."
Other than this switch, however, geographical patterns in
projected 2007 soybean plantings are difficulty to identify.
"Expected U.S. yield should not be impacted by regional soybean
shifts in production, because these shifts are minimal in nature,"
he said.
[Text from file received from
the University of
Illinois Extension]
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