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"If new space was added at the same rate in 2007 as in 2006,
national storage space will exceed fall grain supplies -- old
crop stocks plus production -- by about the same margin as in
2004 and 2005," said Darrel Good. "Even in Illinois, where the
corn crop is expected to be 27 percent larger than in 2006, the
deficit of storage space will not likely be larger than in
2004." Good's comments came as he reviewed recent USDA
production forecasts. The August forecast of the size of the
2007 corn crop was larger than the average of reported
expectations, while the soybean forecast was smaller than
expected.
"Corn demand prospects have improved, however, due to a
significant decline in grain production prospects in Europe," he
said. "U.S. and world wheat production forecasts were reduced."
The 2007 U.S. corn crop is forecast at 13.054 billion
bushels, 2.52 billion larger than the 2006 crop and about 145
million larger than the average pre-report expectation. The U.S.
average yield is forecast at 152.8 bushels, 3.7 bushels above
the 2006 average but 7.6 bushels below the record yield of 2004.
"One of the more surprising forecasts was the projected
average yield of 180 bushels in Iowa, 14 bushels above the 2006
average, even though crop condition ratings have trailed those
of a year ago," he said. "The average Illinois yield is
projected at 178 bushels."
Production of other feed grains (sorghum, barley and oats) is
forecast at 796 million bushels, 244 million larger than the
2006 harvest. The U.S. average sorghum yield is expected to be
14.7 bushels above the 2006 yield.
Good said the large U.S. corn crop is expected to be met with
strong export demand and to result in a steady rate of domestic
feed use. Exports during the 2007-08 marketing year are
projected at 2.15 billion bushels, 150 million above the July
projection and 50 million more than exported this year.
"The increase reflects declining crop production prospects in
the rest of the world, slightly less export competition and
expanding world consumption," he said. "Coarse grain production
in the rest of the world is forecast at 709.7 million tons, 1.5
percent larger than the previous harvest but 1.7 percent smaller
than the July forecast. About half of the decline from the July
projection occurred in the European Union."
Domestic feed use of corn is projected at 5.75 billion
bushels, equal to expected use this year and 50 million larger
than the July forecast. Feed use of other coarse grains is
expected to increase by 80 million bushels, while wheat feeding
is expected to be up 46 million bushels. Most of the wheat
feeding occurs in the summer months.
Domestic processing use of corn during the upcoming year is
projected at 4.79 billion bushels, up 1.265 billion from use
during the current year. That projection is unchanged from the
July forecast.
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Use of corn for all purposes during the 2007-08 marketing year is
forecast at 12.69 billion bushels, 200 million above the July
forecast and 1.315 billion more than expected for the year just
ending. Year-ending stocks are forecast at 1.516 billion bushels,
379 million larger than projected for the current year. The 2007-08
marketing year average farm price is projected in a range of $2.80
to $3.40, the same as the July forecast.For
U.S. soybeans, consumption during the current year is projected at
3.066 billion bushels, 25 million larger than the July forecast, as
the rates of both the domestic crush and exports continue to exceed
earlier projections. The 2007 U.S. crop is projected at 2.625
billion bushels, 563 million smaller than the record harvest of 2006
and about 30 million less than generally expected.
The U.S. average yield is projected at 41.5 bushels, 1.2 bushels
below the 2006 average and 1.5 below the 2005 record. Average yields
for both Illinois and Indiana are projected at 47 bushels, even
though crop condition ratings in Indiana are well below those of
Illinois. The Iowa average is projected at 50 bushels.
"With no significant changes in production forecasts for the rest
of the world, the USDA did not alter the forecasts of consumption of
U.S. soybeans during the 2007-08 marketing year," said Good. "Use is
projected at 2.985 billion bushels, resulting in a year-ending
stocks forecast of 220 million bushels. The 2007-08 marketing year
average farm price is projected in a range of $7.25 to $8.25,
compared to an average of $6.40 for the current year."
The 2007 U.S. wheat crop is now estimated at 2.114 billion
bushels, 302 million larger than the 2006 crop but 24 million
smaller than the July forecast. That decline was in the winter wheat
category. The forecast of domestic feeding of wheat was reduced by
35 million bushes, but the projection of exports was increased by 25
million, to a four-year high of 1.075 billion bushels. Year-ending
stocks are forecast at 404 million, and the season's average farm
price is forecast in a range of $5.10 to $5.70, 30 cents above the
July forecast.
"Current futures prices for corn, soybeans and wheat reflect
higher 2007-08 marketing year average farm prices than forecast by
the USDA, particularly for soybeans," said Good. "The soybean
futures market reflects an average price nearly 50 cents above the
high end of the USDA's forecast price range.
"Even so, prices are expected to remain well-supported until more
is known about the actual size of the 2007 crop. For soybeans,
estimates of South American plantings will continue to take on more
importance."
[Text from file received
from the University
of Illinois College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental
Sciences]
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