 Thanks to a yearlong rally in soybean prices, farmers are ready
to shift back to their traditional rotations -- a move that
could tighten corn supplies to dangerously low levels according
to Farm Futures market experts.
Producers responding to an August e-mail survey by the
magazine reported that they were ready to cut corn acres by 9
percent next year, putting the ground back to soybeans. The
survey put 2008 corn intentions at 84.9 million acres, down from
92.9 million this year. Soybean seedings would surge to 72.6
million, up from 64.1 in 2007. Wheat acres could fall slightly
to 59.8 million, down from 60.5 million in 2007.
"This year's massive shift in acreage showed farmers have
learned how to respond to the signals of the market," says Bryce
Knorr, Farm Futures senior editor, who directed the survey. "Now
with stocks of corn, soybeans and wheat all projected to be
tight in 2008, prices will decide what crops they plant."
Indeed, research by Farm Futures also suggests that the
recent rally in wheat prices since the survey was conducted
could increase winter wheat seedings by 1 million acres or more
if gains hold into the fall.
Based on the August survey, the Farm Futures forecasting
model shows Sept. 1, 2009, corn supplies could fall to just 685
million bushels, even with significant rationing in exports and
feed usage. Soybean stocks would barely grow at all despite the
increase in seedings, while wheat supplies also would remain
close to this year's tight projected levels.
At the Farm Progress Show this week in Decatur, Arlan
Suderman, market analyst for Farm Futures, will discuss the
ramifications of producer decisions reflected in the survey. His
twice-daily seminars will be in the show's Seminar Center and
will start at the following times: Tuesday, 9 a.m. and 2:30
p.m.; Wednesday and Thursday, 9 a.m. and 1:30 p.m.
For more than a year Suderman has been forecasting a battle
to buy acres.
"High input costs and attractive soybean prices have lured
farmers away from corn's charm," says Suderman. "Unfortunately,
corn can't afford to give up 8 million acres without
significantly reducing demand, setting up a classic bidding war
for acres over the next six months."
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The magazine's estimates are based on an exclusive e-mail survey of
more than 600 producers conducted July 26 to Aug. 4. More details
will be forthcoming in the October issue of Farm Futures, which will
feature the cover story "Turf Wars: The Battle to Buy Acres in
2008."
For more information about the Farm Futures forecast, go to
http://www.farmfutures.com/.
About Farm Futures magazine
Published nine times annually by Farm Progress Cos., Farm Futures
provides business and management information to 205,000 large-scale,
high-income U.S. farm operators.
About Farm Progress Cos.
Farm Progress Companies is the largest U.S. media company serving
the agricultural market. The company publishes 18 state and regional
farm publications nationwide, such as the nation's oldest,
continuously published magazine, Prairie Farmer, founded in 1841 in
Illinois; American Agriculturist, in New York and the Northeast;
Rural Life, a nationally circulated rural-living consumer magazine;
and Farm Futures, a nationally circulated publication for
high-volume producers.
Farm Progress operates four farm trade shows, including the Farm
Progress Show, which is the nation's largest outdoor farm show, and
Husker Harvest Days, and provides tailored marketing solutions,
including database, market research and custom publishing.
Farm Progress is headquartered near Chicago, in Carol Stream.
[Text from file received from
Farm Futures]
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