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[AUG. 6, 2002]  URBANA — Price stability will not likely return until the market is comfortable with production prospects, said a University of Illinois Extension marketing specialist.

"The USDA’s August Crop Production report will provide the starting point for refining these expectations, but confidence in production prospects may be delayed until the September or October report," said Darrel Good.

"History for those years when a small crop occurs, or is expected, suggests that prices will experience an early peak this year. The high may have already occurred, or it could come as late as November, underscoring the difficulty of making pricing decisions.

"I have advocated the use of an averaging strategy on a portion of expected production to ensure that at least some of the crop gets priced in the window of opportunity for high prices."

Good’s comments came as he reviewed the commodity markets and the potential size of the 2002 crops. Weather conditions, weather forecast and production prospects continue to dominate the corn and soybean markets. Last week’s price action was dominated by talk of "irreversible" damage to the corn crop and prospects for continued hot, dry weather over a large part of the Midwest.

December 2002 corn futures traded to the highest level for the summer and within 65 cents of the contract high. November soybean futures regained much of the loss experienced between July 23 and July 29 but remained well below the contract high of $5.65 established on July 23. Weekend precipitation in Iowa and parts of the upper Midwest, along with forecasts of cooler temperatures, suggested that prices would start this week on a weaker tone.

"Summer weather conditions often provide volatility to the corn and soybean market, but the almost daily ‘yo-yo’ pattern of prices this year is a little unusual," said Good. "There are at least two fundamental reasons for the pattern of quick price reversals experienced this year. First, there is a significant difference of opinion about yield potential for the 2002 crop."

Good said that forecasts by those quoted in the press vary by as much as 15 bushels per acre for corn and four bushels per acre for soybeans. For corn, the difference in yield expectation represents about one billion bushels of production. For soybeans, the range in expectations represents about 360 million bushels of production. The wide range of expectation reflects the fact that crop stress had continued into the reproductive stage of crop development.

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"A second reason for the large daily price changes is that U.S. and world stocks of grains and oilseeds are small enough that changes in 2002 production prospects have significant implications for the magnitude of price that is necessary to clear the market during the year ahead," said Good. "Year-ending stocks of U.S. soybeans will be especially small, and corn inventories will represent less than a two-month supply.

"There is little cushion for a shortfall in production in 2002. The current situation is one that has been anticipated for several years. Markets have become accustomed to small inventories, and production has been large for six consecutive years. However, market analysts have generally warned that low inventories would translate into volatile prices if and when production was threatened."

For corn, harvested acreage for grain is expected to be near 72 million acres this year. At the low end of yield expectations, about 120 bushels, the crop would total 8.64 billion bushels. Last month, the USDA projected a market for 9.96 billion bushels of corn during the 2002-03 marketing year if prices averaged near $2.

"That combination of production and consumption would project to year-ending stocks of about 300 million bushels," said Good. "Inventories cannot be reduced to such a low level, so prices would have to increase enough to reduce consumption by 300 to 400 million bushels. The strength of demand would determine how high prices would have to be to accomplish the reduction.

"At the high end of yield expectations, about 135 bushels, the crop would total about 9.72 billon bushels, resulting in ample carryover stocks of about 1.4 billion bushels. Under this scenario, the average price would not likely be much above the $1.90 average of the current year."

Harvested acreage of soybeans is also expected to be near 72 million acres. A yield near the low end of expectations, about 35 bushels, would produce a crop of 2.52 billion bushels. A crop of that size would require consumption to be about 250 million bushels less than projected by the USDA last month.

"An average yield of 39 bushels would produce a crop of just over 2.8 billion bushels," said Good. "A crop of that size would result in further reduction in inventories, but would allow use to be at the level projected by the USDA. These two scenarios have very different price implications."

[U of I news release]

[AUG. 5, 2002]  URBANA — Landowners whose property is abundant with wildlife may be able to take advantage of the situation and turn it into a money-making venture. It’s called fee hunting, and it’s the topic of the next sustainable agriculture field trip, scheduled for 9:30 to noon on Tuesday, Sept. 10, at Spring View Acres in Pike County.

Mike Rahe, sustainable agriculture representative with the Illinois Department of Agriculture will present information on fee hunting enterprises such as whitetail deer and turkey and "put and take" pheasant and quail hunting.

Much like stocking a lake with trout for fishermen, "put and take" refers to stocking an area of land with birds like pheasant and quail for hunting. The birds are removed from a holding pen and released, or "put," into a hunting area. Then the hunters go to that area to hunt the birds, or "take" them, the same day.

Those who attend the field trip will learn the management techniques used to establish and maintain a successful fee hunting enterprise. Information on harvest strategies, habitat development, economics and marketing will be included. Farmers, farm managers, hunters and private consultants will pick up some pointers on everything from stand placement and food plot usage to deer densities and altering deer movement.

How is fee hunting related to sustainable agriculture? "It provides another alternative income source from an often underutilized resource found on a farm, namely wildlife," said Rahe. "It also adds value to the farm operation and the community through agri-tourism opportunities."

The field trip is free and registration is not required. For more information, contact Mike Rahe at (217) 785-5594; mrahe@agr.state.il.us.

To find Spring View Acres, from Pittsfield go east on Route 106 approximately 5 miles to Newburg Corner and turn left (north) on gravel road 3450 E. Continue 1 mile on gravel and turn left (west) onto 1600 N at mailbox that reads "Tripod Farms." Go past the house to the bottom of the hill, which dead-ends at the cabins.

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The fee hunting field trip is part of the 2002 Sustainable Agriculture Tours, sponsored by the Agroecology/Sustainable Agriculture Program at the University of Illinois, the North Central Region Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education Professional Development Program and the Illinois Small Farm Task Force.

"The tours will give people a chance to see a variety of sustainable agriculture operations in action," said Deborah Cavanaugh-Grant, research specialist at the University of Illinois in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences.

"Then, in November, we’ll be offering two identical workshops, on the 13th in Effingham and on the 14th in Peoria, that will look at the big picture and try to assimilate the practices presented on the summer tours. But each of the tours and the workshops stand alone, so people can attend one or all of them."

Cavanaugh-Grant said that the last field trip in the series, on agri-tourism, will be Oct. 11 at Apple Basket Farms in Barry.

Visit http://www.aces.uiuc.edu/asap/ for more information or contact Deborah Cavanaugh-Grant at (217) 968-5512; e-mail: cvnghgrn@uiuc.edu.

[U of I news release]

[AUG. 1, 2002]  URBANA — An investment in basic research into improving the photosynthetic process could be priceless to the future of agriculture. Genetically altering photosynthesis, or chlorophyll formation during the greening process, could lead to an eightfold increase in crop productivity, according to Constantin A. Rebeiz, professor of plant physiology at the University of Illinois.

Theoretically, the maximum food conversion capability, or the amount of sunlight converted to food for a plant, is 27 percent. However, under the best conditions in the Midwest, a corn plant at noon converts less than 1 percent of the sunlight it receives into food.

"Essentially, to make a very long story short, we are saying that basic research has not benefited agriculture so much. Crop productivity is still very low compared to a plant’s theoretical maximum photosynthetic efficiency."

Two types of chlorophyll in plants are responsible for solar energy capture and conversion into chemical energy. Antennae chlorophyll gathers light, and reaction center chlorophyll converts the captured solar energy to chemical energy that can be used in the formation of food. In nature, the ratio of antennae chlorophyll to reaction center chlorophyll, called the photosynthetic unit size, is so large that optimal efficiency is not possible. Mother Nature is responsible for the relationship, Rebeiz said.

In the 1970s, researchers attempted to modify the greening process to decrease the photosynthetic unit size but did not succeed because of limited knowledge of the process. The required knowledge exists today.

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"They did not succeed because changing the photosynthetic unit size requires a deep understanding of the chlorophyll biosynthetic pathway and other facets of the greening process," he said. "In 1975, that knowledge was not available. Now, 27 years later, we have garnered a considerable body of knowledge of how chlorophyll and other components of the greening process are made, and we feel the time is right to start systematically investigating how the photosynthetic unit size can be changed."

Rebeiz said modifying the photosynthetic unit size will require a multidisciplinary approach and calls for information about chlorophyll, protein, lipid, carotenoids and guinone biosynthesis. While maximum efficiency can be obtained only in model systems, he believes that achieving 10 percent efficiency in modified plants in the field is possible.

"If the ratio is decreased from 200-to-1 to 25-to-1, the efficiency increases eight times. In other words, a grower could produce on 1 acre what they were producing on 8 acres," he said.

[U of I news release]

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