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Weekly outlook

Production forecasts

[DEC. 6, 2002]  URBANA -- The market generally interpreted the USDA's November reports as friendly for wheat prices, neutral for corn prices and a little negative for soybean prices, said a University of Illinois Extension marketing specialist.

"Prospects for declining U.S. and world inventories of coarse grains, wheat and soybeans should keep prices generally supported," said Darrel Good. "However, higher prices for corn and soybeans over the next few months will have to come from a higher rate of consumption than currently projected and/or crop problems in South America.

"The post-harvest recovery in soybean prices offers an opportunity to increase sales. It could be spring before corn prices have an opportunity to move significantly higher."

Good's comments came as he reviewed the USDA's November forecasts of the size of the 2002 U.S. corn and soybean crops, as well as wheat. The projection of use during the current marketing year was increased for soybeans but reduced for corn. The projections of year-ending stocks for both crops are larger than the October projections. For wheat, the November report included a smaller production estimate, a smaller forecast of imports and a smaller projection for year-ending stocks.

The 2002 U.S. corn crop is now projected at 9.003 billion bushels, 33 million larger than the October projection.

"The increase resulted from a slightly larger projection of the U.S. average corn yield," said Good. "At 127.6 bushels, the projection is 0.4 bushels larger than the October projection. Higher average yields are expected for a number of states in the western and northern growing areas, but lower yields were projected for some eastern states. The average yield in Ohio, for example, is now projected at 96 bushels, eight bushels below the October forecast."

For the current marketing year, the USDA increased the projection of feed and residual use of corn by 25 million bushels but lowered the projection of exports by 75 million.

"The smaller export projection reflects a smaller projection of world consumption and trade and larger export projections for Argentina and China," said Good. "As expected, the USDA revised the estimates of Chinese inventories. The estimate of stocks of corn at the beginning of the year was increased by 5.5 percent.

"Year-ending stocks of corn in the United States are now projected at 848 million bushels, 84 million larger than projected last month. The season's average price is expected to fall in a range of $2.20 to $2.60. That projection is 10 cents lower than the October projection."

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The 2002 U.S. soybean crop is now projected at 2.69 billion bushels, 36 million larger than the October projection. The projection of the U.S. average yield was increased by 0.5 bushels, to 37.5 bushels per acre. The average yield estimate was increased by three bushels for Wisconsin and two bushels for Kentucky and Michigan. As expected, the USDA increased the projection of U.S. soybean exports for the current year by 40 million bushels, to a total of 890 million bushels.

"Surprisingly, however, the projection of the domestic crush was reduced by 15 million bushels, reflecting smaller export projections for both oil and meal," said Good. "Even though the planting season has been less than ideal in parts of South America, the USDA increased the forecast of the 2003 harvest by 3 percent, to a total of 3.13 billion bushels. The larger forecast reflects an increase in the estimate of planted area."

Stocks of soybeans in the United States at the end of the current marketing year are projected at 185 million bushels, 10 million higher than the October forecast. The marketing year average farm price is projected in a range of $4.95 to $5.85, 10 cents lower than last month's projection. The projection for the average price of oil was increased by .005 cents per pound, but the projection of the average price of meal was reduced by $10 per ton.

At 1.616 billion bushels, the November U.S. wheat estimate was nine million bushels below the October estimate. The projection of marketing year imports was reduced by five million bushels. Year-ending stocks of U.S. wheat are projected at 358 million bushels, down from 777 million at the start of the year. The marketing year average price is projected in a range of $3.65 to $3.95.

"The USDA once again revised the estimates of Chinese wheat inventories," said Good. "Stocks at the beginning of the current year are now estimated at 2.814 billion bushels, double the previous estimate. Year-ending stocks are projected at 2.277 billion, 3.2 times as large as the October projection."

Good noted that the USDA will release a final estimate of the size of the U.S. corn and soybean crops on Jan. 10.

"For corn, the January estimate was below the November forecast in each of the past four years but was above the November forecast 65 percent of the time in the past 20 years," he said. "For soybeans, the January estimate was below the November forecast in each of the past seven years and 65 percent of the time in recent history."

[U of I news release]

Extension creates Spanish forum

[DEC. 6, 2002]  URBANA -- Addressing the needs of a Spanish-speaking audience that is growing faster than the ability of a state or its Extension professionals to keep up is the focus of a group that includes a University of Illinois Extension program development specialist.

"The need for quality Spanish-language educational support and materials surpasses the resources available within any one state," explained Ben Mueller, who works with the U of I's Laboratory for Community and Economic Development and specializes in Spanish-language programs. He is part of a national group of fellow Extension professionals committed to improving the quality and quantity of Spanish-language materials available to their peers. This group includes representatives from the University of California, New Mexico State University and Texas A&M.

"Our group -- Extension en Espanol -- has created a website to help our colleagues who need Spanish-language materials."

Designed and maintained by the Extension en Espanol group, the website will provide Extension educational materials in Spanish and English, as well as providing production assistance on materials in Spanish for regional or national audiences. There are also resources for Extension professionals who are working with Spanish-speaking clients.

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"Our group and its website also provide a place to share expertise and experiences that will improve the quality of Extension outreach to Spanish-speaking audiences across the United States," Mueller added.

Through U of I Extension, Mueller has developed Spanish-language radio programming for areas of the state with Spanish-speaking populations.

"We believe the national online clearinghouse, Extension en Espanol, and the collaboration of Extension professionals working with Latino/a audiences across the United States will allow all of us to better serve an important client group," said Mueller.

[U of I news release]

[DEC. 5, 2002]  The Millennium Clover 4-H club met on Dec. 1.

Vanessa Tibbs, 4-H leader, asked for project sheets to be turned in since the deadline is Jan. 1.

The club donated $25 each to buy a Christmas gift from the Angel Tree and from the resident tree at St. Clara's Manor. A committee will look into the possibility of ice-skating and roller-skating at a future meeting. The group decided not to participate in the Christmas parade.

Kaleb Gordon gave a talk about chickens. Nichole Benz did a demonstration on how to paint ceramics.

Kaleb and Tate Gordon provided the refreshments.

Adrienne, Brook and Sheldon will do talks and demonstrations at the next meeting, which will be at 2 p.m. Jan. 5 in the Extension office.

[Nichole Benz, reporter]

Weekly outlook

Pork prices

[DEC. 3, 2002]  URBANA -- The odds suggests that hog producers will find their Christmas stockings filled with hog prices on the way up, said a Purdue University Extension marketing specialist.

"The odds suggest that hog prices are headed upward," said Chris Hurt. "The hog market has had a rugged year through November."

Pork production has been up 2.6 percent on 2.2 percent higher slaughter numbers. Prices through November have averaged $35 compared with nearly $46 for 2001, and costs have escalated by about $3 per live hundredweight since the summer's drought.

"Bullish indicators, however, now greatly outnumber bearish arguments," he said. "The first friendly indicator is an expectation for lower pork supplies in December and through the winter. USDA inventory numbers indicate a 1 percent smaller December slaughter, followed by a drop of 2 to 3 percent through the winter.

"Secondly, with higher corn prices this fall and the depressed hog prices, marketing weights have come down. October and November weights were down about 2 pounds per carcass, or around 1 percent. Weights will likely continue to be moderate in the coming year."

And, Hurt added, the bullish arguments continue. Sow slaughter remains high since producers began liquidating breeding herds at the height of last summer's drought and resulting elevated feed prices. The rate of sow slaughter began to rise in April and reached its peak in July, when it stood at 20 percent greater than the same month in the previous year.

"But even since last summer, the rate of sow slaughter has averaged 12 percent higher," said Hurt. "This means that the breeding herd will continue to shrink into 2003. Another factor is that excess pork in cold storage will likely continue to be reduced. In August, cold storage stocks were 39 percent greater than the previous year. Today they are down to 14 percent greater."

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The bullish arguments can be extended to include an improving U.S. and world economy and a bullish cattle market that will ultimately result in some consumer substitution of pork for beef. Based on the USDA's Monthly Hogs and Pigs report, the number of sows and gilts bred dropped under year-earlier levels beginning in June of 2002. These smaller farrowings will start to show up as smaller slaughter in the month of December, just in time for the Christmas season. Canadian imports, which were up sharply in the first-half of 2002, have moderated some in the past two months, dropping by 8 percent compared with the same period in 2001.

"And finally, traders in the lean hog futures market are optimistic that prices are ready to recover," said Hurt.

On Nov. 29, February futures suggested live hog prices near $40 for February, $44 by May and $48 by June.

"My price projections for 51 to 52 percent lean carcasses on a live weight basis are similar," said Hurt. "I expect the mid-$30s by the end of the year, then improving to the upper $30s for a first-quarter average, the low $40s for a second-quarter average and the low to mid-$40s for the summer quarter.

"If one doubts that prices can recover as much as suggested, keep in mind that hog prices have been surprisingly responsive to small supply changes in the past several years. As an example, in 2002, pork supplies will finish the year about 2.5 percent higher, yet prices will be down about 23 percent. For 2003, pork supplies will move downward, and a sharp price response to the upside can be expected."

In addition, Hurt believes it is likely that the breeding herd will continue to move lower through at least the first half of 2003, with strong prices continuing into late 2003 and early 2004.

"It's been another year of endurance for pork producers, but considerable improvement should soon be on the way," said Hurt.

[U of I news release]

[DEC. 2, 2002]  The ag issues team and the food science and technology team of the Hartsburg-Emden FFA chapter were selected as state winners in recent competition.

The five members of the ag issues team, Matthew Wrage, Nick Alberts, Brittney Kavanaugh, Kyle Hoerbert and Kory Leesman, presented pros and cons on the topic of "Upgrading the Locks and Dams on the Illinois and Mississippi Rivers." The participants role-played the major constituents involved in this issue. The team also met recently with U.S. Rep. Ray LaHood concerning the issue.

[Photos provided by Hartem FFA]
[Left to right:  Kory Leesman, Nick Alberts, Kyle Hoerbert, Rep. LaHood, Brittney Kavanaugh, Alyssa Moehring and Matthew Wrage]

As state winners, the team will now represent the Illinois FFA Association at the 2003 National FFA Convention. This is the third state-winning team competing in the Ag Issues Career Development Event for the Hartsburg-Emden FFA chapter. 

[News release]

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[Members of the Hartsburg-Emden FFA ag issues team, which won in state competition:  (left to right) Matthew Wrage, Brittney Kavanaugh, Kyle Hoerbert, Kory Leesman and Nick Alberts] 

[Members of the Hartsburg-Emden FFA state champion team in food science and technology are Alyssa Moehring, Krista Ubbenga, Natalie Coers and Brittney Kavanaugh with Drew Dediraemaker, state FFA president.]

Latest corn, soybean results available from U of I variety testing program

[DEC. 2, 2002]  URBANA — The University of Illinois has released the 2002 results from its variety testing program for corn and soybeans. The data from these latest trials are available in both printed form and on the Internet at http://vt.cropsci.uiuc.edu.

"One of the most important production decisions facing producers each year is which variety or hybrid to grow on their farm," said Emerson Nafziger, crop scientist with U of I Extension. "The variety testing program in the Department of Crop Sciences at the University of Illinois is one of the largest such programs in the country. It provides accurate and unbiased performance data on a large number of varieties and hybrids so that growers can make the best choice possible on what to plant."

He points out that the program has served as a "neutral testing ground" for more than 60 years for corn and for two to three decades for other crops. The corn and soybean entries were tested at a dozen sites throughout Illinois.

"There were 640 varieties from 60 companies in the latest soybean trials, while the corn trials included 395 hybrids from 56 different seed companies," Nafziger said. "We also are testing a number of grain sorghum hybrids and forage varieties."

The quickest way to find results from these trials is on the website for the U of I's Department of Crop Sciences. Printed versions were published in Illinois Agrinews during mid-November. Paper copies can also be obtained from most U of I Extension offices after early December.

The yield data in this year's results reflect the wide variability that was seen across the state during the past growing season for both corn and soybeans.

"Several locations in western and northern Illinois had average corn yields of more than 200 bushels an acre, with a high of 233 bushels per acre at Monmouth," Nafziger said. "The east central and southern areas of the state did not fare as well, with two locations in south central Illinois yielding less than 60 bushels per acre in the trials."

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He notes that soybeans followed a similar trend, with average yields of more than 60 bushels per acre in the west and east-central parts of the state and less than 30 bushels per acre in south-central Illinois.

"The trials were performed on a regional basis, with averages calculated over two or three individual sites in order to better predict future performance," Nafziger said. "Except for some publicly developed varieties, entries in these trials are all made by commercial seed companies, all of whom are invited annually to participate."

He points out that, while company data and recommendations are essential in deciding what seed to buy this fall for planting in 2003, the U of I variety trial results represent the only place to find so many hybrids and varieties compared with each other in the same trials.

"Companies know their products better than anyone else, but they may not have much information on how their varieties perform compared to those from other companies," Nafziger said. "Many producers also like to double-check to see how the seed they ordered stacks up against the competition. If the seed company participates in the university trials, these trials usually represent the best source of such information."

[U of I news release]

Honors & Awards

[NOV. 13, 2002]  Logan County had its annual 4-H Achievement Night on Nov. 7 at the Lincoln Park District Rec Center. Approximately 115 4-H members, leaders and families came to congratulate the award recipients.

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Home and Family

[Logan County Extension news release
by Amy Hyde]

Ag Announcements

Olympia FFA Alumni news

[NOV. 8, 2002]  What do a tree, a chain saw and a TV have in common? The Olympia FFA Alumni chapter is selling raffle tickets for these items. The low-priced tickets provide a chance at a 36-inch Zenith color TV, a Stihl Farm Boss chain saw and a 1.5- to 3-inch diameter sunset red maple tree.

The chapter draws in members from McLean, Tazewell, Woodford, DeWitt and Logan counties.

Proceeds from the raffle will help support the agriculture program of the Olympia School District.

The drawing for the items will be Jan. 11, 2003, which is the tentative date for the FFA alumni banquet.

For more information on purchasing a raffle ticket or about the FFA Alumni chapter, contact any member of the chapter or call (309) 379-5911.

[News release]

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