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[JULY 25, 2002]  URBANA — Multiple concerns face the U.S. cattle industry, according to a Purdue University Extension marketing specialist. "Grain and protein prices are going to be sharply higher this fall, with the precise magnitude to be highly influenced by weather in the next several weeks," said Chris Hurt.

"Poor pasture conditions and lack of forage crops in the western Plains and Mountain States may also result in further liquidation of cows and movement of calves to market more quickly than planned.

"In addition, there remains uncertainty about how consumers will respond to the decline in stock values. If they begin to watch their food budgets more closely, beef demand will be among the first to suffer."

Hurt’s comments came as he reviewed the cattle markets. Finished cattle prices are expected to make a slow recovery in the last half of 2002, following a disappointing performance since late 2001. On the other hand, feeder cattle are expected to experience little price increase as a larger calf crop and higher feed prices offset the potential modest gains in finished cattle prices.

"Calf prices are also expected to struggle, with this fall’s prices being nearly $10 per hundredweight below prices in the fall of 2001," said Hurt.

In its cattle report for July, the USDA reported that the total number of cattle and calves in the country was down only 0.6 percent. Even with much lower calf prices and drought conditions in much of the Plains and Mountain States, the total number of cows is down only fractionally, and the anticipated calf crop this year is actually up by 0.3 percent. Beef cow numbers on July 1 were down 0.4 percent, but milk cow numbers were up 0.5 percent.

"Milk producers indicated that they intend to expand the herd even more, as the number of milk replacement heifers is up 2.8 percent," said Hurt. "This reaction, especially among small and moderate-sized producers, reflects the strong profits last year and, perhaps, the new government milk price supports.

"Beef producers, on the other hand, intend to keep the size of the breeding herd about the same, as beef replacement heifer numbers were unchanged from last year at this time."

Beef production for 2002 is now expected to reach 26.6 billion pounds, a 2 percent increase from last year. The slaughter rate may finally taper off a bit in the final quarter of this year, as the number of market steers and heifers weighing over 500 pounds on July 1 was down about 2 percent.

"High marketing weights have plagued the cattle market since last fall and will be an important factor in price determination in the coming year," said Hurt. "As an example, in the first half of this year the number of cattle marketed was unchanged, but higher weights added 3.6 percent to the total beef supply.

"Low-priced feed and unfulfilled hopes for a recovery in finished cattle prices seem to be the explanation. It is anticipated that weights will remain about 1 to 2 percent higher this summer but then drop back closer to unchanged for the fall and winter as a result of sharply higher feed prices."

Some recovery in finished cattle prices is expected this fall. Nebraska 1,100- to 1,300-pound choice steers averaged only $65.58 in the second quarter of 2002. The price is expected to improve only about $1 for a summer average, with prices finally increasing in September. The fall quarter is expected to see prices recover into the higher $60s.

"Some further modest recovery can be expected in the first half of 2003, with prices averaging near $70 in the first quarter and in the extremely low $70s in the second quarter," said Hurt. "Given normal seasonal price tendencies, this would mean that prices in late March or early April could reach the low to mid-$70s for some daily highs."

Feeder cattle prices are expected to be well below their previous-year levels over the coming 12 months. Lower prices will be a result of a modestly larger 2002 calf crop, the sluggish recovery in finished cattle prices, and higher feed and forage prices. Prices for Oklahoma City steers weighing in the 750- to 800-pound range are expected to average in the low $80s per hundredweight this summer but drop to the very high $70s for the fall. During the first half of 2003, prices are expected to be in the mid- to higher $70s. Prices for the next 12 months are expected to be about $5 per hundredweight lower than in the previous 12 months.

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"Lower-priced feeder cattle will also likely result in lower-priced calves over the next year," said Hurt. "Prices for Oklahoma City 500- to 550-pound steers, as an example, are expected to be in the low $90s per hundredweight this summer but drop to the higher $80s in the fall. Prices during the first half of 2003 are expected to be in the lower $90s.

"As an example of the changed price prospects for brood cow producers, these calves averaged $98 per hundredweight last fall but are expected to be only $88 this fall. Prices for the next 12 months are expected to be about $9 per hundredweight lower, on average, than in the previous 12 months. Prices for eastern Corn Belt calves at auction markets tend to be $3 to $5 lower than Oklahoma City."

[U of I news release]

[JULY 23, 2002]  What a difference an inch of rain makes! Of course portions of Logan County have received more than five inches in the past week, while other areas are significantly below those totals. Both corn and soybeans are in critical periods of their growth and development now. The rains of last evening were "million dollar" rains that will help with corn kernel development and soybean pod set.

Corn is just somewhere around the pollination stage. I say "somewhere," since some corn is just finishing up, while other fields are just beginning. It’s amazing what it does to have three planting periods, a month apart. Corn that is under severe moisture stress may not have live pollen shed at the same time that silks are available to receive the pollen. Silk for the tips of ears emerges last. In some years the pollen is gone before the silk for the kernels at tip is exposed, leading to barren tips.

[Photos provided by John Fulton]

Soybeans are in the early pod-set stage, with many varieties being much shorter than normal. Height of plants doesn’t provide any indicator of yield, as the nodes are much closer together on plants when the beans are grown under stress. Severely stressed soybeans also tend to have more blooms fall off without setting pods. Don’t get too alarmed at blooms that don’t set pods, since less than a quarter of the blooms set pods in a good year.

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Spot inspections of corn pollination this year show pollination to be surprisingly good. Many ears have shown over 90 percent of available kernels pollinated. Corn that would be suspect for pollination is the corn yet to pollinate. It has been under more moisture stress because of reduced root development. It has also been under more stress while the reproductive portions of the plant have been forming in the plant. These later-planted fields can be assessed in about two weeks to see their progress. Each stage of crop development limits yield potential. Early to mid stages were stressed, while corn should be good for a few weeks.

In addition to weather, insects and their relatives are creating challenges. We have had Japanese beetles, corn rootworm beetles, aphids and now spider mites causing damage. Limited treatment has been occurring for these problems. When determining whether treatment is justified, the stage of crop growth, threshold of insects, cost of treatment, value of crop and the effectiveness of treatment must all be taken into account.

[John Fulton]

[JULY 23, 2002]  URBANA — A variety of specialty crops will be featured on the fourth in a series of sustainable agriculture field trips, on Tuesday, Aug. 6.

The tour will begin at Frey Produce north of Keenes, Ill., at 9:30 a.m. Owner Sarah Frey is a commercial buyer and packager of fruit and produce.

Dave Johnson, forester with the Illinois Department of Conservation, will give a talk entitled "Money Does Grow on Trees." He will be presenting information on how farmers can grow nuts, acorns and other seeds for the Illinois Department of Conservation for their tree nursery. And, Martin Barbre and Brad Greenwalt will provide information on growing low-nicotine tobacco. Barbre farms approximately 26 acres of tobacco in Illinois.

The tour will then move to the Mark Donoho farm. Donoho grows pumpkins as an alternative to corn and soybeans. He has grown them for Frey produce for three years.

The day will end with a tour of the Genkota Winery in Mount Vernon. Owner Brad Drake will describe the grape and wine production at the winery. Allan Dillard, who has his own winery near Carbondale, will also be available to answer questions.

While the tour itself is free, there is a $5 advance registration required for the lunch, or $10 on the day of the tour. To register in advance, contact Walt Townsend at (618) 897-2560.

To get to Frey Produce, drive east of Mount Vernon on Route 15 to Keenes, then turn north toward Orchardville, continue 8½ miles, then turn west for two miles.

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The specialty crop field trip is part of the 2002 Sustainable Agriculture Tours, sponsored by the Agroecology/Sustainable Agriculture Program at the University of Illinois, the North Central Region Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education Professional Development Program and the Illinois Small Farm Task Force.

"The tours will give people a chance to see a variety of sustainable agriculture operations in action," said Deborah Cavanaugh-Grant, research specialist at the University of Illinois in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences.

"Then, in November, we’ll be offering two identical workshops, on the 13th in Effingham and on the 14th in Peoria, that will look at the big picture and try to assimilate the practices presented on the summer tours. But each of the tours and the workshops stand alone, so people can attend one or all of them."

Cavanaugh-Grant said that the next field trip, on Sept. 10, will be about fee hunting, and the final field trip, on agri-tourism, will be on Oct. 11.

Visit http://www.aces.uiuc.edu/asap/ for more information or contact Deborah Cavanaugh-Grant at (217) 968-5512; e-mail: cvnghgrn@uiuc.edu.

[U of I news release]

Project aims to maintain disease resistance in Illinois soybeans

[JULY 22, 2002]  URBANA — One of the most troublesome plant diseases in many Illinois fields is Phytophthora rot, which can infect and kill soybean plants anytime from planting to harvest. This disease has been largely controlled by planting soybean varieties with Rps resistance genes.

But recently the Rps genes have been losing some of their efficiency in several states across the Midwest, creating the potential for renewed outbreaks of the disease in soybean fields.

To counter this problem, researchers from University of Illinois Extension recently launched a project aimed at determining if the strains of Phytophthora in Illinois are developing the ability to kill soybean plants with the available Rps resistance genes. Funding for this project has been provided by the Illinois Soybean Checkoff Board.

"With help from seed company representatives and regional Extension educators, we have collected and tested more than 200 soil samples from soybean fields with a history of Phytophthora or similar seedling health problems," said Dean Malvick, plant pathologist with U of I Extension. "Those samples came from more than 20 counties across the state."

The researchers have obtained isolates of the disease-causing pathogen from many of those samples and have tested them against commercial soybean varieties with the three types of Rps resistance genes.

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"As expected, we found that many of the isolates from Illinois can defeat the first of those resistance genes and that a smaller number can defeat the second type," Malvick said. "Unfortunately, we have found in our preliminary work that a few aggressive isolates can defeat all three of the resistance genes commonly found in commercial soybean varieties sold in the state. Although these aggressive isolates exist in Illinois, we still do not know for sure how much damage they may be causing."

He notes, however, that the aggressive isolates do not appear to be widespread in the state and that two of the three resistance genes are still effective in most cases.

"We plan to continue our research to identify the various races of Phytophthora in Illinois," Malvick said. "Those results will help with selection of soybean varieties with appropriate types of resistance and will be of real value for breeders developing soybean varieties with Phytophthora resistance best suited for the state."

[U of I news release]

State’s livestock industry must
adapt or decline, study indicates

[JULY 20, 2002]  URBANA — Opportunities for a solution to the decline of the Illinois livestock industry exist if the industry can develop models that address the demands of the modern agri-food supply chain while meeting community standards for environmental stewardship, said a University of Illinois Extension agribusiness management specialist.

"An economic impact analysis tells a complex story of an industry in decline but at the same time an industry with significant impact," said Peter Goldsmith, who is studying the industry with funding support from the Illinois Council for Food and Agricultural Research. "If the industry maintains the status quo, the negative trends will persist," he said.

Goldsmith’s comments came as he participated in an Illinois Livestock Business Development Conference, sponsored by the Illinois Coalition for Animal Agriculture. The meeting was in Bloomington earlier this month.

Livestock agriculture in Illinois has a total economic impact at the production level of more than $2.7 billion in output and more than 37,000 full-time equivalent employees. The impact is greater proportionally in some areas. For example, livestock comprises more than 25 percent of Carroll County’s economy and almost 18 percent of that county’s employment.

"When the meat and dairy processing sectors are added to the statewide economic picture, the impacts increase fivefold," said Goldsmith. "In 1999, meat and dairy processing contributed more than $15 billion in total economic impact and had a total employment impact on more than 80,000 jobs.

"Combining the livestock and meat and dairy processing sectors creates a complex that impacts more than 118,000 jobs, has total economic impact of more than $18 billion, and represents 2.32 percent of the state’s economy."

However, over the past 20 years animal agriculture has declined in the Midwest as a result of a number of factors, including population shifts, scale economies and novel business models leading to greater coordination and integration.

"The structural change in Midwest agriculture has not only resulted in a real decline in the value of Illinois livestock marketing but a relative decline as well," he noted.

"Exacerbating the situation is the heightened conflict over rural amenities. Whereas historically livestock was an integral part of the rural landscape, shifts in rural population and a trend toward enclosed livestock production have made animal agriculture a public policy issue."

Goldsmith’s research is focused on determining if livestock agriculture has a future role in rural economic growth in Illinois. If so, how must it adapt to reflect the new realities of rural life as well as the modern agri-food supply chain?

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One promising area involves linkages between livestock and upstream and downstream sectors in the food chain.

"While downstream the processing sector purchases more than $1.2 billion of Illinois livestock inputs annually, this represents only 28 percent of the livestock commodity inputs needed by meat and dairy processing," said Goldsmith. "Significant deficit commodities are beef and dairy, contributing only 20 percent and 18 percent, respectively, of local industry demand."

Livestock may also play a role in rural economic development.

"Addressing the livestock enterprise siting question is critical," he noted. "There are numerous alternative destinations, nationally and internationally, for investment capital in livestock production. Creating a more favorable business environment is essential to restoring livestock numbers and consequently the economic strength of many rural communities."

Now is the time for new thinking in the state’s livestock industry.

"It behooves the livestock sector to explore novel relationships with meat and dairy processing to access their supply-chain knowledge," he said. "In terms of local demand, markets in Chicago and St. Louis offer interesting opportunities in the retail, direct marketing and restaurant segments.

"Linkages with the grain sector also offer opportunity. Tremendous expansion of the ethanol industry is planned for the state. Marketing dried distillers’ grains will be a significant challenge, and partnering with the ethanol industry also offers interesting opportunities."

In addition to studying the economic impact and future of the state’s livestock industry, Goldsmith will soon begin a project that involves understanding community standards in order to improve siting of livestock facilities.

"The study will help the industry understand and apply the concept of ‘community standards’ as they seek to reverse the flow of investment capital in livestock production," said Goldsmith.

The full report, "Economic Impact of Illinois’ Livestock Industry: Supply Chain Linkages," will be available in August. People interested in copies are invited to contact Sue Esposito at (217) 333-5506.

[U of I news release]

Honors & Awards

There are some ‘treemendous’
trees in Logan County

[JULY 20, 2002]  The 2002 Treemendous Tree Contest sponsored by the Logan County Master Gardeners has determined winners by species and an overall winner. The largest tree scored was a tulip poplar owned by Hoblit Farms of Atlanta. The tree measured 129 feet tall, had a branch spread of 79 feet 7 inches, and a circumference of 16 feet 11 inches. The tree garnered a composite score of 352 points based on these measurements.

Other winners were Jim McKown with a black walnut tree with a composite score of 203 points, Hoblit Farms with a white oak earning a score of 241, Daris Knauer’s red oak with a score of 252, Stephen Miller with a score of 260 on his ash tree, Jim Sparrow’s silver maple with a score of 250, and John Fulton’s hackberry with a score of 214.

Winners will receive plaques sponsored by contest chairman Walt Ebel. The contest was promoted by Walt and the Master Gardeners to identify and preserve large trees in the Logan County area.

[John Fulton]

National FFA scholarship awarded to local student

[JULY 17, 2002]  INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. — FFA’s national organization awarded a $1,000 Valent BioSciences Corporation scholarship to Kent Leesman of Hartsburg-Emden High School. Valent BioSciences sponsors the scholarship as a special project of the National FFA Foundation. Kent plans to use the funds to pursue a degree in agronomy at University of Illinois in Urbana-Champaign.

The Valent BioSciences scholarship is one of 1,178 awarded through the FFA’s national scholarship program this year. Currently, 187 corporate sponsors generously contribute more than $1.9 million to support the program. This is the 18th year that scholarships have been made available through the National FFA Foundation by business and industry sponsors to reward and encourage excellence and enable students to pursue their educational goals.

Scholarship recipients were selected from more than 7,000 applicants from across the country. Selections were based on the applicant’s academic record, FFA and other school and community activities, supervised agricultural experience program in agricultural education, career plans and financial need.

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FFA is a national youth organization of 457,278 student members preparing for leadership and careers in the science, business and technology of agriculture. There are 7,312 local chapters in all 50 states, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. FFA strives to make a positive difference in the lives of students by developing their potential for leadership, personal growth and career success through agricultural education. Visit www.ffa.org for more information.

[FFA news release]

Logan County 4-H Shows

• 4-H Food and Nutrition Show results

• 4-H Home and Family Show results

Ag Announcements

Special baking contests at state fair

[JULY 1, 2002]  Contestants are invited to prepare gingerbread houses and Spam recipes to enter at the Illinois State Fair in August.

Awards will be given for the most creative entries in the Brer Rabbit® Molasses Gingerbread House Contest at the state fair. Both beginners and gingerbread house enthusiasts are invited to compete for cash and prizes. In 2001, judges picked winning entries ranging from traditional to elaborate, including a castle, a detailed tree house with garden and another resembling the "Old Woman in a Shoe." Any theme entry is welcome that uses Brer Rabbit molasses and is up to a foot tall, wide and deep, base not included. Entrants must also bake and enter one dozen gingerbread cookies.

Winners are selected based on appearance (50 percent), originality and creativity (40 percent), and taste (10 percent). Creators are awarded $150 for first place, $75 for second and $25 for third. People of any age may enter, with one entry per person or group. Several people may work on one entry, but one person represents the group. 

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The Illinois State Fair will be one of 70 fairs hosting the Spam® Oven Roasted Turkey Contest. Using the Spam turkey and up to nine other ingredients, contestants are to create an original main dish, appetizer, casserole, stew, stir-fry, salad sandwich or any other recipe. To focus on convenience, cooking time may not exceed 30 minutes.

Judges select winners based on taste appeal (40 percent), appearance (30 percent) and originality (30 percent). The three best entries win cash awards of $150, $50 and $25, and first-place winners advance to national judging for a $2,500 shopping spree and an all-expense-paid trip to Minneapolis.

To enter either contest, contact the entry department at the Illinois State Fair, 782-6661, by July 15. More details for the gingerbread contest are on page 90, and those for the Spam contest are on page 86 of the general premium book.

[News release]

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