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[JULY 30, 2002]  URBANA — It now appears that improving weather conditions will result in some near-term price declines, said a University of Illinois Extension marketing specialist.

"The prospects for declining U.S. and world stocks of grain and oilseeds should keep prices supported above the extremely low levels of the past four years," said Darrel Good. "Small U.S. crops would provide an opportunity to test the strength of demand for corn and soybeans."

Good’s comments came as he reviewed corn and soybean prices, which have been extremely volatile over the past few weeks. September corn futures have traded in a range of nearly 30 cents, while August soybean futures have seen a 70-cent trading range. The wide trading range reflects uncertainty about crop size and the relatively tight supplies of old crop soybeans.

"The recent price behavior has been similar to that of a year ago, when September corn futures traded in a 40-cent range and August soybean futures had a range of 75 cents," said Good. "The major difference is that prices have been at a higher level this year.

"The debate about likely size of the U.S. corn and soybean crops continues, and opinions apparently vary significantly. The USDA’s weekly crop condition report shows that crop ratings are the lowest since 1988, suggesting that significant yield potential has already been lost. Others argue that crop ratings are not a good predictor of crop yields and that recently improved weather conditions in some areas point to the potential for decent average yields in 2002."

The USDA will release the first projection of 2002 yield potential on Aug. 12. The market will view this as an important benchmark for judging actual crop size. The report will reflect changes, if any, in planted acreage since the June survey was conducted, a forecast of harvested acreage and yield projections.

"It is always interesting to examine how the August forecast has compared to the estimate released in January after harvest," said Good. "Last year, when there were similar, although lesser, weather and crop concerns, the August soybean production forecast was only 24 million bushels — 0.8 percent smaller than the January estimate.

"The August corn projection was 241 million bushels — 8.3 percent smaller than the January estimate. In the 20 years from 1982 through 2001, the August soybean production forecast was above the January estimate nine times and below the January estimate 11 times. The August projection was below the January estimate for five consecutive years from 1988 through 1992. Since then there has been an alternating pattern of above and below."

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For corn, Good noted, the pattern has been similar to that of soybeans. The August forecast was above the January estimate in eight of the last 20 years and below the January estimate 12 times. The August projection was also below the January estimate during the five-year-period from 1988 through 1992.

"While the historical relationship between the August forecast and January estimate of crop size is interesting, it does not provide much insight for predicting the relationship this year," said Good. "The change in the production projection from August forward depends on weather conditions during the final stages of growth. The market will use the August projection as a starting point but will closely monitor weather conditions and crop condition reports in order to ‘second-guess’ the projections."

Potential crop size will continue to be the primary price factor over the next several weeks, said Good. Once the market settles on yield and production expectations, more attention will shift to expectations about market size during the 2002-03 marketing year.

For corn, the USDA sees the potential for an increase in exports and domestic processing use during the year ahead. A small decline in domestic feed and residual use is expected.

"The critical question is whether the crop is large enough to accommodate an increase in consumption or if higher prices will be required to limit consumption," said Good. "The last time that consumption had to be limited was 1995-96. In that year, demand was strong enough to require extremely high prices to force such a reduction."

For soybeans, the USDA had projected a small increase in the domestic crush during the year ahead but a significant decline in U.S. exports. The decline in exports reflects the expectation of increased exports from South America. At this early state, the USDA sees a 4 percent increase in soybean area in Brazil, a 6 percent increase in Argentina and a 2 percent increase in Paraguay.

"That increased acreage is expected to result in a record 2003 harvest of 2.965 billion bushels — 100 million bushels larger than the current projection of the 2002 U.S. harvest," said Good. "Even with a decline in U.S. exports, the 2002 crop may be small enough to keep year-ending stocks at an extremely low level."

[U of I news release]

[JULY 27, 2002]  Leave it to a team of University of Illinois seniors to solve a problem that has dogged specialty crop growers for some time.

Students found a way for growers to switch between serrated wear strips and smooth wear strips on a John Deere STS combine in only 20 minutes — considerably faster than the one to 1½ hours it had been taking.  Specialty crop growers, such as popcorn and edible bean growers, use the smooth wear strips to reduce crop damage.

Solving such real-life problems is part of the appeal of the senior design class in the U of I’s Department of Agricultural Engineering — the capstone design course for off-road equipment engineering and a requirement for engineering accreditation.

"Students work harder on this three-hour course than on any course they have in college," said Doug Bosworth, adjunct professor and coordinator of the popular design class.  "But they enjoy it more because they’re working on real-life problems. They work with companies like John Deere, Caterpillar, Case-DMI.  It gives them excellent preparation for industry."

Katie Yagow, part of the four-person team that worked on the wear strip problem, agrees. "Many of our engineering classes are very theoretical and abstract. We’re given problems out of a book and have nothing tangible to attach the problem to. This class is the complete opposite."

Mike Gentry, a second member of Wear-N-Tear, Inc. (the team’s "company" name) recently spoke with the team’s engineering contact at John Deere. According to Gentry, "John Deere has a summer intern looking at the design. Depending on the progress she makes, the design may or may not go into production. There is also the possibility that the design may be put on the shelf for a few years until there is funding available."

Bosworth said that about one-third of the students’ projects are implemented by the companies that sponsor the "real life" projects.

"A project we had a year ago resolved a problem Caterpillar had for 30 years," he said.  "It was a simple thing — a door hinge for a cab.  But when you have fresh eyes look at an old problem, some very good things come out of it.  That particular design will be introduced in a new line of cabs in a few years."

"Such impressive statistics are the result of Bosworth’s high expectations of his student team members.

"I give them complete control of their projects," he said. "I expect them to do the necessary research, develop design alternatives, do the actual design, fabricate the parts, evaluate the parts, write formal reports, and in the end, present an industry-style report to the sponsor, along with a 20-minute PowerPoint presentation at the sponsor’s location."

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Students are also required to develop and track project schedules and budgets and to give their sponsors weekly project reports and monthly project reviews.

Ryan Giordano, another student in the design course, worked with a team known as the "Shankbusters."  They were charged with designing and constructing a laboratory test stand for large ground-engaging equipment for Case-DMI Inc.

"A class like this is a delicate balance between having successful projects that keep sponsors coming back and giving the students enough freedom to let them make mistakes and learn from them," he said.  "Doug Bosworth excels at this balancing act.  I imagine it’s something that can only be learned from years of experience."

Bosworth’s experience includes 35 years as an engineer and manager at John Deere.  While with the company, Bosworth was the contact that developed projects for this same class.

"So I’ve been on both ends of this thing," he said.  After taking an early retirement, Bosworth came to the university to teach Ag E 336 in 1995. Some of his former students are industry representatives who now provide projects for the class.

"What better way is there to try and get a job?" said Gentry.  "This class gives each of us a chance to show what we can do.  It’s like a semester-long interview."

Meanwhile, the companies involved enjoy considerable benefits as well. Industry partners pay out-of-pocket costs and furnish parts, expertise and components. Bosworth estimates this expense runs somewhere between $2,000 and $2,500. In return, sponsors receive an optimum design solution to their problem, a working prototype and over 400 hours of engineering resources.

The most telling endorsement of the design course came this spring when the John Deere Foundation provided the Department of Agricultural Engineering with a grant to support the instructor’s position for the senior design class.

Bosworth was installed as the first John Deere capstone design instructor for product development in agricultural engineering.

[Leanne Lucas, University of Illinois]

[JULY 25, 2002]  URBANA — Multiple concerns face the U.S. cattle industry, according to a Purdue University Extension marketing specialist. "Grain and protein prices are going to be sharply higher this fall, with the precise magnitude to be highly influenced by weather in the next several weeks," said Chris Hurt.

"Poor pasture conditions and lack of forage crops in the western Plains and Mountain States may also result in further liquidation of cows and movement of calves to market more quickly than planned.

"In addition, there remains uncertainty about how consumers will respond to the decline in stock values. If they begin to watch their food budgets more closely, beef demand will be among the first to suffer."

Hurt’s comments came as he reviewed the cattle markets. Finished cattle prices are expected to make a slow recovery in the last half of 2002, following a disappointing performance since late 2001. On the other hand, feeder cattle are expected to experience little price increase as a larger calf crop and higher feed prices offset the potential modest gains in finished cattle prices.

"Calf prices are also expected to struggle, with this fall’s prices being nearly $10 per hundredweight below prices in the fall of 2001," said Hurt.

In its cattle report for July, the USDA reported that the total number of cattle and calves in the country was down only 0.6 percent. Even with much lower calf prices and drought conditions in much of the Plains and Mountain States, the total number of cows is down only fractionally, and the anticipated calf crop this year is actually up by 0.3 percent. Beef cow numbers on July 1 were down 0.4 percent, but milk cow numbers were up 0.5 percent.

"Milk producers indicated that they intend to expand the herd even more, as the number of milk replacement heifers is up 2.8 percent," said Hurt. "This reaction, especially among small and moderate-sized producers, reflects the strong profits last year and, perhaps, the new government milk price supports.

"Beef producers, on the other hand, intend to keep the size of the breeding herd about the same, as beef replacement heifer numbers were unchanged from last year at this time."

Beef production for 2002 is now expected to reach 26.6 billion pounds, a 2 percent increase from last year. The slaughter rate may finally taper off a bit in the final quarter of this year, as the number of market steers and heifers weighing over 500 pounds on July 1 was down about 2 percent.

"High marketing weights have plagued the cattle market since last fall and will be an important factor in price determination in the coming year," said Hurt. "As an example, in the first half of this year the number of cattle marketed was unchanged, but higher weights added 3.6 percent to the total beef supply.

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"Low-priced feed and unfulfilled hopes for a recovery in finished cattle prices seem to be the explanation. It is anticipated that weights will remain about 1 to 2 percent higher this summer but then drop back closer to unchanged for the fall and winter as a result of sharply higher feed prices."

Some recovery in finished cattle prices is expected this fall. Nebraska 1,100- to 1,300-pound choice steers averaged only $65.58 in the second quarter of 2002. The price is expected to improve only about $1 for a summer average, with prices finally increasing in September. The fall quarter is expected to see prices recover into the higher $60s.

"Some further modest recovery can be expected in the first half of 2003, with prices averaging near $70 in the first quarter and in the extremely low $70s in the second quarter," said Hurt. "Given normal seasonal price tendencies, this would mean that prices in late March or early April could reach the low to mid-$70s for some daily highs."

Feeder cattle prices are expected to be well below their previous-year levels over the coming 12 months. Lower prices will be a result of a modestly larger 2002 calf crop, the sluggish recovery in finished cattle prices, and higher feed and forage prices. Prices for Oklahoma City steers weighing in the 750- to 800-pound range are expected to average in the low $80s per hundredweight this summer but drop to the very high $70s for the fall. During the first half of 2003, prices are expected to be in the mid- to higher $70s. Prices for the next 12 months are expected to be about $5 per hundredweight lower than in the previous 12 months.

"Lower-priced feeder cattle will also likely result in lower-priced calves over the next year," said Hurt. "Prices for Oklahoma City 500- to 550-pound steers, as an example, are expected to be in the low $90s per hundredweight this summer but drop to the higher $80s in the fall. Prices during the first half of 2003 are expected to be in the lower $90s.

"As an example of the changed price prospects for brood cow producers, these calves averaged $98 per hundredweight last fall but are expected to be only $88 this fall. Prices for the next 12 months are expected to be about $9 per hundredweight lower, on average, than in the previous 12 months. Prices for eastern Corn Belt calves at auction markets tend to be $3 to $5 lower than Oklahoma City."

[U of I news release]

[JULY 23, 2002]  What a difference an inch of rain makes! Of course portions of Logan County have received more than five inches in the past week, while other areas are significantly below those totals. Both corn and soybeans are in critical periods of their growth and development now. The rains of last evening were "million dollar" rains that will help with corn kernel development and soybean pod set.

Corn is just somewhere around the pollination stage. I say "somewhere," since some corn is just finishing up, while other fields are just beginning. It’s amazing what it does to have three planting periods, a month apart. Corn that is under severe moisture stress may not have live pollen shed at the same time that silks are available to receive the pollen. Silk for the tips of ears emerges last. In some years the pollen is gone before the silk for the kernels at tip is exposed, leading to barren tips.

[Photos provided by John Fulton]

Soybeans are in the early pod-set stage, with many varieties being much shorter than normal. Height of plants doesn’t provide any indicator of yield, as the nodes are much closer together on plants when the beans are grown under stress. Severely stressed soybeans also tend to have more blooms fall off without setting pods. Don’t get too alarmed at blooms that don’t set pods, since less than a quarter of the blooms set pods in a good year.

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Spot inspections of corn pollination this year show pollination to be surprisingly good. Many ears have shown over 90 percent of available kernels pollinated. Corn that would be suspect for pollination is the corn yet to pollinate. It has been under more moisture stress because of reduced root development. It has also been under more stress while the reproductive portions of the plant have been forming in the plant. These later-planted fields can be assessed in about two weeks to see their progress. Each stage of crop development limits yield potential. Early to mid stages were stressed, while corn should be good for a few weeks.

In addition to weather, insects and their relatives are creating challenges. We have had Japanese beetles, corn rootworm beetles, aphids and now spider mites causing damage. Limited treatment has been occurring for these problems. When determining whether treatment is justified, the stage of crop growth, threshold of insects, cost of treatment, value of crop and the effectiveness of treatment must all be taken into account.

[John Fulton]

[JULY 23, 2002]  URBANA — A variety of specialty crops will be featured on the fourth in a series of sustainable agriculture field trips, on Tuesday, Aug. 6.

The tour will begin at Frey Produce north of Keenes, Ill., at 9:30 a.m. Owner Sarah Frey is a commercial buyer and packager of fruit and produce.

Dave Johnson, forester with the Illinois Department of Conservation, will give a talk entitled "Money Does Grow on Trees." He will be presenting information on how farmers can grow nuts, acorns and other seeds for the Illinois Department of Conservation for their tree nursery. And, Martin Barbre and Brad Greenwalt will provide information on growing low-nicotine tobacco. Barbre farms approximately 26 acres of tobacco in Illinois.

The tour will then move to the Mark Donoho farm. Donoho grows pumpkins as an alternative to corn and soybeans. He has grown them for Frey produce for three years.

The day will end with a tour of the Genkota Winery in Mount Vernon. Owner Brad Drake will describe the grape and wine production at the winery. Allan Dillard, who has his own winery near Carbondale, will also be available to answer questions.

While the tour itself is free, there is a $5 advance registration required for the lunch, or $10 on the day of the tour. To register in advance, contact Walt Townsend at (618) 897-2560.

To get to Frey Produce, drive east of Mount Vernon on Route 15 to Keenes, then turn north toward Orchardville, continue 8½ miles, then turn west for two miles.

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The specialty crop field trip is part of the 2002 Sustainable Agriculture Tours, sponsored by the Agroecology/Sustainable Agriculture Program at the University of Illinois, the North Central Region Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education Professional Development Program and the Illinois Small Farm Task Force.

"The tours will give people a chance to see a variety of sustainable agriculture operations in action," said Deborah Cavanaugh-Grant, research specialist at the University of Illinois in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences.

"Then, in November, we’ll be offering two identical workshops, on the 13th in Effingham and on the 14th in Peoria, that will look at the big picture and try to assimilate the practices presented on the summer tours. But each of the tours and the workshops stand alone, so people can attend one or all of them."

Cavanaugh-Grant said that the next field trip, on Sept. 10, will be about fee hunting, and the final field trip, on agri-tourism, will be on Oct. 11.

Visit http://www.aces.uiuc.edu/asap/ for more information or contact Deborah Cavanaugh-Grant at (217) 968-5512; e-mail: cvnghgrn@uiuc.edu.

[U of I news release]

Honors & Awards

There are some ‘treemendous’
trees in Logan County

[JULY 20, 2002]  The 2002 Treemendous Tree Contest sponsored by the Logan County Master Gardeners has determined winners by species and an overall winner. The largest tree scored was a tulip poplar owned by Hoblit Farms of Atlanta. The tree measured 129 feet tall, had a branch spread of 79 feet 7 inches, and a circumference of 16 feet 11 inches. The tree garnered a composite score of 352 points based on these measurements.

Other winners were Jim McKown with a black walnut tree with a composite score of 203 points, Hoblit Farms with a white oak earning a score of 241, Daris Knauer’s red oak with a score of 252, Stephen Miller with a score of 260 on his ash tree, Jim Sparrow’s silver maple with a score of 250, and John Fulton’s hackberry with a score of 214.

Winners will receive plaques sponsored by contest chairman Walt Ebel. The contest was promoted by Walt and the Master Gardeners to identify and preserve large trees in the Logan County area.

[John Fulton]

National FFA scholarship awarded to local student

[JULY 17, 2002]  INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. — FFA’s national organization awarded a $1,000 Valent BioSciences Corporation scholarship to Kent Leesman of Hartsburg-Emden High School. Valent BioSciences sponsors the scholarship as a special project of the National FFA Foundation. Kent plans to use the funds to pursue a degree in agronomy at University of Illinois in Urbana-Champaign.

The Valent BioSciences scholarship is one of 1,178 awarded through the FFA’s national scholarship program this year. Currently, 187 corporate sponsors generously contribute more than $1.9 million to support the program. This is the 18th year that scholarships have been made available through the National FFA Foundation by business and industry sponsors to reward and encourage excellence and enable students to pursue their educational goals.

Scholarship recipients were selected from more than 7,000 applicants from across the country. Selections were based on the applicant’s academic record, FFA and other school and community activities, supervised agricultural experience program in agricultural education, career plans and financial need.

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FFA is a national youth organization of 457,278 student members preparing for leadership and careers in the science, business and technology of agriculture. There are 7,312 local chapters in all 50 states, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. FFA strives to make a positive difference in the lives of students by developing their potential for leadership, personal growth and career success through agricultural education. Visit www.ffa.org for more information.

[FFA news release]

Logan County 4-H Shows

• 4-H Dog Show results

• 4-H Food and Nutrition Show results

• 4-H Home and Family Show results

Ag Announcements

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