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Features
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Weekly outlook
Undervalued corn?
[NOV.
19, 2002]
URBANA — Corn prices have
the potential to add to last week’s gain, said a University of
Illinois Extension marketing specialist, but upward potential this
winter may be limited if consumption patterns continue near
projected levels.
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"As always, the USDA’s January reports
will provide information to reassess price potential," said Darrel
Good.
Good’s comments came as he reviewed
corn prices, which have declined significantly over the past two
months. December 2002 corn futures traded to a high of $2.96 on
Sept. 11, declined as low as $2.34 on Nov. 11 and recovered to $2.42
at the close of trade on Nov. 15. The average spot cash price of
corn in central Illinois peaked at $2.785 on Sept. 11, declined to
$2.30 on Nov. 11 and recovered to $2.37 on Nov. 15.
"The sharp decline in prices occurred
during a period when the USDA increased the projection of
year-ending stocks by a modest 100 million bushels," said Good. "The
price decline has led some to conclude that corn prices are
‘undervalued.’ In general, this conclusion is based on the
observation that, historically, prices have been higher than current
prices when carry-over stocks were small.
"However, trying to correlate price
with stocks, or a ratio of stocks to annual use, is a shortcut that
has a number of shortcomings. In particular, that type of analysis
generally ignores the fact that price, consumption and stocks are
determined simultaneously, not independently. Similar stock levels
can be associated with different price levels, reflecting, for
example, variation in the demand for consumption, the demand for
stocks and the total supply of the crop."
The best test of whether crop prices at
this time of year are undervalued or overvalued is the rate of
consumption in relation to available supplies, Good noted.
"If consumption — seasonally adjusted —
is occurring at a faster rate than can be sustained by available
supplies, it would be safe to conclude that prices are undervalued,
and vice versa," he said.
"The difficulty in reaching such a
conclusion is twofold. First, the size of the 2002 corn crop is not
known with certainty. Large changes in the crop estimate in the
January report are not expected, but the magnitude of available
supplies may be different than currently estimated. Some expect a
smaller estimate due to a reduction in the estimate of harvested
acreage.
"Second, complete, timely information
on the rate of corn consumption is not available. Feed and residual
use of corn is the largest category of use, but the rate of
consumption is only revealed in the USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks
reports. The first such report for the 2002-03 marketing year will
be released on Jan. 10. The magnitude of livestock slaughter and
livestock inventory reports provides some insight on the likely rate
of consumption, but the quarterly stocks reports provide the only
hard information. The expectation this year is that declining
numbers of cattle and hogs, along with low hog prices, will result
in a decline in feed and residual use of corn."
[to top of second column in
this article]
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Good added that the year-over-year
decline will likely be the largest in the last half of the marketing
year. The USDA currently projects a 3.4 percent decline for the
year.
Domestic processing use of corn is
partially revealed in monthly industry reports. The most important
sector this year is the ethanol industry. Monthly reports confirm a
record pace of ethanol production, and the USDA projects a 15
percent year-over-year increase in the amount of corn used for
ethanol production.
Weekly reports of corn export activity
are available. Export inspections through the first 10 weeks of the
2002-03 marketing year totaled only 255 million bushels, 27 percent
less than during the same period last year. Unshipped sales as of
Nov. 7, however, were reported at 314 million bushels, 17 percent
larger than outstanding sales of a year ago. Total commitments stood
at 569 million bushels, 6 percent less than commitments on the same
date last year.
"For the year, the USDA projects
exports at 1.925 billion bushels, about 2 percent larger than
exports of a year ago," said Good. "It is expected that larger sales
to Canada, the entrance of Australia in the import market and the
tight supplies of grain sorghum will support U.S. exports at a
higher level."
At this stage of the marketing year,
there is no evidence that corn is being used at a rate that cannot
be sustained, Good noted.
"Based on the current projections for
the marketing year, stocks on Sept. 1, 2003, will total 848 million
bushels," he said. "That is a relatively low level of stocks but is
above the minimum pipeline inventory. There is room for the
production estimate to be reduced and/or consumption to exceed
current projections without running out of corn this year."
While there is always the need for more
information, Good said it now appears that current corn prices are
significantly undervalued only if production does not rebound in
2003.
"In general,
it is thought that current price prospects favor more corn acreage,
at the expense of soybean acreage in 2003," said Good. "The USDA’s
Winter Wheat Seedings report to be released on Jan. 10 will provide
some insight into prospects for spring-planted crops, particularly
in the Plains states. The major unknown for 2003 is weather. A
return to a trend-line yield may be required to maintain consumption
of U.S. corn at the current level."
[U
of I news release]
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PQA
training offered
[NOV.
14, 2002]
URBANA — The opportunity
to gain free training in order to meet Pork Quality Assurance
standards will be offered next month at three locations by the
University of Illinois Extension in cooperation with the Illinois
Pork Producers Association.
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"More and more packers are requiring
the people they buy pigs from to have PQA certification," explained
Gilbert Hollis, U of I Extension swine specialist. "In order to sell
pigs for slaughter after Jan. 1, 2003, producers are going to need
this certification."
Introduced by the National Pork Board
in 1989, PQA is a three-level management education program. It
focuses on good management practices in the handling and use of
animal health products and encourages producers to review their
approach to their herds’ health programs.
[to top of second column in this
article]
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The December training, which consists
of a 1½-hour session, prepares producers for PQA certification.
Preregistration is requested. Dates, locations, times and contacts
are:
• Dec. 11: Effingham
Extension Center, 1:30-3 p.m., register by Dec. 9 by contacting Ed
Ballard, U of I Extension animal systems educator based in
Effingham, at (217) 347-5126.
• Dec. 12: U of I
Extension Building, State Fairgrounds, Springfield, 7-8:30 p.m.,
register by Dec. 9 by contacting Hollis at (217) 333-0013.
•
Dec. 17: DeKalb Center for Ag,
Sycamore, 10 a.m.-noon, register by Dec. 13 by contacting Dan
Jennings, U of I Extension animal systems educator based in
Rockford, at (815) 397-7714.
[U of I news release] |
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Honors
& Awards
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Logan County 4-H
Achievement Night
[NOV.
13, 2002]
Logan County had its
annual 4-H Achievement Night on Nov. 7 at the Lincoln Park District
Rec Center. Approximately 115 4-H members, leaders and families came
to congratulate the award recipients.
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The top award-winners
in the major award categories on Nov. 7 include the following:
• Three of our Logan County 4-H members have been
selected to receive the highest honor in a 4-H’ers career. Because
of their outstanding 4-H career and their excellent job with their
4-H records, these individuals have been selected as Illinois
delegates to the 2002 National 4-H Congress in Atlanta, Ga., later
this month! Delegates and their categories are:
Hans Bishop — Mechanics and Technology
Amanda Davison — Foods, Nutrition, and Health
Abrigail Sasse — Animal Sciences
• The top 10 percent of records in a project area in
the state are given a National 4-H Congress Blue Award Certificate
each year. Certificate recipient is:
Emily Bakken — Foods, Nutrition, and Health
• The "I Dare You" award is presented to 4-H’ers who
have demonstrated qualities of leadership, excellence in character
and effective future leadership. This year’s winners are:
Elizabeth Brooks, Lincoln
Clint Garey, Atlanta
Ashley Lamb, Latham
Nicole Tripplett, Middletown
• The 4-H Key award is the highest award given. The
qualifications are these: 16 years of age, minimum of three years of
4-H membership, submit a 4-H story and meet nine other requirements
as verified by their leaders. This year’s winners are:
Emily Bakken, Lincoln
Hans Bishop, Atlanta
Elizabeth Brooks, Lincoln
Amanda Davison, Beason
Kyle Janssen, Middletown
• Some 4-H’ers are chosen each year in special award
categories. A book is presented to a 4-H’er with outstanding work,
quantity, quality, years, citizenship, leadership, participation,
skill acquisition and growth. The books are given in three age
categories: 8-11 years of age, 12-14 and 15-19. A Blue Award is
given to a 4-H’er deserving of repeat recognition in a category. In
the 15-19 age category, the medal awards are nationally sponsored
and may be received only once in each curriculum area.
[Photos provided by Amy Hyde, 4-H Youth Development]
[8- to 11-year-old award recipients:
(front from left) Matthew Runyon, Zach Huffer and Nichole Benz;
(back from left) David Fulton, Ben Buse and Jenna Opperman.]
Outstanding Awards
Achievement
8-11 years old — Zack
Huffer, Lincoln, book; Jenna Opperman, Lincoln, Blue Award
12-14 — Marty
Oltmanns, Lincoln, book; Andrew Fulton, Lincoln, Blue Award
15-19 — Mary Healy,
Middletown, medal; Abrigail Sasse, Beason, medal; Kyle Janssen,
Middletown, medal; Amanda Davison, Beason, book; Emily Bakken,
Lincoln, Blue Award; Amanda Davison, Beason, Blue Award
Animal Science
8-11 — David Fulton,
Lincoln, book; Shelden Tibbs, Middletown, Blue Award
12-14 — Kim Turner,
Atlanta, book; Andrew Fulton, Lincoln, Blue Award
15-19 — Elizabeth
Brooks, Lincoln, medal; Emily Bakken, Lincoln, book; Abrigail Sasse,
Beason, Blue Award; Emily Bakken, Lincoln, Blue Award; Amanda
Davison, Beason, Blue Award
Electricity
12-14 — Marty
Oltmanns, Lincoln
Environment/Natural Resources
8-11 — Mathew Runyon,
Lincoln, book; Ben Buse, Lincoln, Blue Award; Zack Huffer, Lincoln,
Blue Award
12-14 — Chris
Ackerman, Lincoln, book
15-19 — Hans Bishop,
Atlanta, medal; Hans Bishop, Atlanta, book; Kyle Janssen,
Middletown, Blue Award
[12- to 14-year-old award recipients:
(from left) Elizabeth Carter, Kim Turner, Marty Oltmanns and Andrew
Fulton.]
Food, Nutrition and Health
8-11 — Nichole Benz,
Lincoln, book; Jenna Opperman, Lincoln, Blue Award
12-14 — Elizabeth
Carter, Lincoln, book; Chris Ackerman, Lincoln, Blue Award
15-19 — Krista
Ubbenga, Hartsburg, medal; Elizabeth Brooks, Lincoln, medal; Emily
Bakken, Lincoln, book; Emily Bakken, Lincoln, Blue Award, Amanda
Davison, Beason, Blue Award
[to top of second column in this
article]
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Home and Family
8-11 — Kristin
Bishop, Atlanta, book; Nichole Benz, Lincoln, Blue Award
12-14 — Elizabeth
Carter, Lincoln, book; Katelyn Beavers, Lincoln, Blue Award
15-19 — Abrigail
Sasse, Beason, medal; Leila Ballinger, Atlanta, medal; Leila
Ballinger, Atlanta, book; Amanda Davison, Beason, Blue Award; Emily
Bakken, Lincoln, Blue Award
Leadership
12-14 — Andrew
Fulton, Lincoln, Blue Award
15-19 — Emily Bakken,
Lincoln, medal; Amanda Davison, Beason, book; Kyle Janssen,
Middletown, Blue Award
[15- to 19-year-old award recipients:
(front from left) Mary Healy, Amanda Davison and Emily Bakken; (back
from left) Kyle Janssen, Audra Ballinger and Leila Ballinger.]
Mechanics and Technology
8-11 — Mathew Runyon,
Broadwell, book; Zack Huffer, Lincoln, Blue Award
12-14 — Marty
Oltmanns, Lincoln, book; Andrew Fulton, Lincoln, Blue Award
15-19 — Hans Bishop,
Atlanta, Blue Award
Personal Development
8-11 — Nichole Benz,
Lincoln, book
12-14 — Chris
Ackerman, Lincoln, book; Andrew Fulton, Lincoln, Blue Award
15-19 — Susanna
Cluver, Latham, medal; Krista Ubbenga, Hartsburg, book; Emily Bakken,
Lincoln, Blue Award; Leila Ballinger, Atlanta, Blue Award; Krista
Ubbenga, Hartsburg, Blue Award; Amanda Davison, Beason, Blue Award
Plant and Soil Science
8-11 — Kristin
Bishop, Atlanta, book
12-14 — Marty
Oltmanns, Lincoln, book; Scott Ubbenga, Hartsburg, Blue Award
15-19 — Audra
Ballinger, Atlanta, medal; Kyle Janssen, Middletown, medal; Emily
Bakken, Lincoln, book; Mary Healy, Middletown, Blue Award; Hans
Bishop, Atlanta, Blue Awards; Emily Bakken, Lincoln, Blue Award
[Club of the Year awards: Leaders:
Sherry Fulton (left) of Chester 4-H and Mary Jo Janssen of
Middletown 4-H.]
Club Awards
Club – Agriculture —
The Pioneers
Club Community
Involvement and Global Awareness — Middletown 4-H’ers
Club Standards of
Excellence — Atlanta Ag, Atlanta Town & Country, Beason Ag
Chester 4-H, Clover
Kids, Middletown 4-H’ers, Millennium Clovers, The Pioneers
Clubs of the Year —
Chester 4-H, Middletown 4-H’ers
Top Food Awards
Junior foods winner —
Nichole Benz, Lincoln
Senior foods winner —
Elizabeth Brooks, Lincoln
Herdsman of the Year
Daniel Fulton
Leaders recognized
Thirteen adult
volunteers were recognized and honored at the Logan County 4-H
Achievement Night. They were honored in the following categories:
First-year leaders —
Denice Hildebrandt, Lincoln; Rebecca Rich, Emden
Fifth-year leaders —
Kim Beavers, Lincoln; Lori Cross, Hartsburg; Brent Hellman, Emden;
Gail Parson, Lincoln; Mark Rogers, Emden
Tenth-year leaders —
Martha Green, Atlanta; Wesley Green, Atlanta; Teresa Hoerbert,
Delavan; Donna Struebing, Hartsburg; Janet Turner, Atlanta
Twentieth-year leader
— Deanna Voyles, Lincoln
Congratulations!
For a complete listing of the 4-H awards
presented on Nov. 7 or for information on the Logan County 4-H
program, please contact the Logan County 4-H office at 980 N.
Postville Drive, Lincoln, IL 62656, or call (217) 732-8289.
[Logan
County Extension news release
by Amy Hyde] |
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Ag
Announcements
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Olympia FFA Alumni news
[NOV.
8, 2002]
What do a tree, a chain saw
and a TV have in common? The Olympia FFA Alumni chapter is selling
raffle tickets for these items. The low-priced tickets provide a
chance at a 36-inch Zenith color TV, a Stihl Farm Boss chain saw and
a 1.5- to 3-inch diameter sunset red maple tree.
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The chapter draws in members from
McLean, Tazewell, Woodford, DeWitt and Logan counties.
Proceeds from the raffle will help
support the agriculture program of the Olympia School District.
The drawing for the items will be Jan.
11, 2003, which is the tentative date for the FFA alumni banquet.
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For more
information on purchasing a raffle ticket or about the FFA Alumni
chapter, contact any member of the chapter or call (309) 379-5911.
[News
release] |
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