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Weekly outlook

Undervalued corn?

[NOV. 19, 2002]  URBANA — Corn prices have the potential to add to last week’s gain, said a University of Illinois Extension marketing specialist, but upward potential this winter may be limited if consumption patterns continue near projected levels.

"As always, the USDA’s January reports will provide information to reassess price potential," said Darrel Good.

Good’s comments came as he reviewed corn prices, which have declined significantly over the past two months. December 2002 corn futures traded to a high of $2.96 on Sept. 11, declined as low as $2.34 on Nov. 11 and recovered to $2.42 at the close of trade on Nov. 15. The average spot cash price of corn in central Illinois peaked at $2.785 on Sept. 11, declined to $2.30 on Nov. 11 and recovered to $2.37 on Nov. 15.

"The sharp decline in prices occurred during a period when the USDA increased the projection of year-ending stocks by a modest 100 million bushels," said Good. "The price decline has led some to conclude that corn prices are ‘undervalued.’ In general, this conclusion is based on the observation that, historically, prices have been higher than current prices when carry-over stocks were small.

"However, trying to correlate price with stocks, or a ratio of stocks to annual use, is a shortcut that has a number of shortcomings. In particular, that type of analysis generally ignores the fact that price, consumption and stocks are determined simultaneously, not independently. Similar stock levels can be associated with different price levels, reflecting, for example, variation in the demand for consumption, the demand for stocks and the total supply of the crop."

 

The best test of whether crop prices at this time of year are undervalued or overvalued is the rate of consumption in relation to available supplies, Good noted.

"If consumption — seasonally adjusted — is occurring at a faster rate than can be sustained by available supplies, it would be safe to conclude that prices are undervalued, and vice versa," he said.

"The difficulty in reaching such a conclusion is twofold. First, the size of the 2002 corn crop is not known with certainty. Large changes in the crop estimate in the January report are not expected, but the magnitude of available supplies may be different than currently estimated. Some expect a smaller estimate due to a reduction in the estimate of harvested acreage.

"Second, complete, timely information on the rate of corn consumption is not available. Feed and residual use of corn is the largest category of use, but the rate of consumption is only revealed in the USDA’s quarterly Grain Stocks reports. The first such report for the 2002-03 marketing year will be released on Jan. 10. The magnitude of livestock slaughter and livestock inventory reports provides some insight on the likely rate of consumption, but the quarterly stocks reports provide the only hard information. The expectation this year is that declining numbers of cattle and hogs, along with low hog prices, will result in a decline in feed and residual use of corn."

 

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Good added that the year-over-year decline will likely be the largest in the last half of the marketing year. The USDA currently projects a 3.4 percent decline for the year.

Domestic processing use of corn is partially revealed in monthly industry reports. The most important sector this year is the ethanol industry. Monthly reports confirm a record pace of ethanol production, and the USDA projects a 15 percent year-over-year increase in the amount of corn used for ethanol production.

Weekly reports of corn export activity are available. Export inspections through the first 10 weeks of the 2002-03 marketing year totaled only 255 million bushels, 27 percent less than during the same period last year. Unshipped sales as of Nov. 7, however, were reported at 314 million bushels, 17 percent larger than outstanding sales of a year ago. Total commitments stood at 569 million bushels, 6 percent less than commitments on the same date last year.

"For the year, the USDA projects exports at 1.925 billion bushels, about 2 percent larger than exports of a year ago," said Good. "It is expected that larger sales to Canada, the entrance of Australia in the import market and the tight supplies of grain sorghum will support U.S. exports at a higher level."

At this stage of the marketing year, there is no evidence that corn is being used at a rate that cannot be sustained, Good noted.

"Based on the current projections for the marketing year, stocks on Sept. 1, 2003, will total 848 million bushels," he said. "That is a relatively low level of stocks but is above the minimum pipeline inventory. There is room for the production estimate to be reduced and/or consumption to exceed current projections without running out of corn this year."

 

While there is always the need for more information, Good said it now appears that current corn prices are significantly undervalued only if production does not rebound in 2003.

"In general, it is thought that current price prospects favor more corn acreage, at the expense of soybean acreage in 2003," said Good. "The USDA’s Winter Wheat Seedings report to be released on Jan. 10 will provide some insight into prospects for spring-planted crops, particularly in the Plains states. The major unknown for 2003 is weather. A return to a trend-line yield may be required to maintain consumption of U.S. corn at the current level."

[U of I news release]


PQA training offered

[NOV. 14, 2002]  URBANA — The opportunity to gain free training in order to meet Pork Quality Assurance standards will be offered next month at three locations by the University of Illinois Extension in cooperation with the Illinois Pork Producers Association.

"More and more packers are requiring the people they buy pigs from to have PQA certification," explained Gilbert Hollis, U of I Extension swine specialist. "In order to sell pigs for slaughter after Jan. 1, 2003, producers are going to need this certification."

Introduced by the National Pork Board in 1989, PQA is a three-level management education program. It focuses on good management practices in the handling and use of animal health products and encourages producers to review their approach to their herds’ health programs.

 

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The December training, which consists of a 1½-hour session, prepares producers for PQA certification. Preregistration is requested. Dates, locations, times and contacts are:

•  Dec. 11:  Effingham Extension Center, 1:30-3 p.m., register by Dec. 9 by contacting Ed Ballard, U of I Extension animal systems educator based in Effingham, at (217) 347-5126.

•  Dec. 12:  U of I Extension Building, State Fairgrounds, Springfield, 7-8:30 p.m., register by Dec. 9 by contacting Hollis at (217) 333-0013.

•  Dec. 17:  DeKalb Center for Ag, Sycamore, 10 a.m.-noon, register by Dec. 13 by contacting Dan Jennings, U of I Extension animal systems educator based in Rockford, at (815) 397-7714.

[U of I news release]


Honors & Awards

Logan County 4-H Achievement Night

[NOV. 13, 2002]  Logan County had its annual 4-H Achievement Night on Nov. 7 at the Lincoln Park District Rec Center. Approximately 115 4-H members, leaders and families came to congratulate the award recipients.

The top award-winners in the major award categories on Nov. 7 include the following:

•  Three of our Logan County 4-H members have been selected to receive the highest honor in a 4-H’ers career. Because of their outstanding 4-H career and their excellent job with their 4-H records, these individuals have been selected as Illinois delegates to the 2002 National 4-H Congress in Atlanta, Ga., later this month! Delegates and their categories are:

Hans Bishop — Mechanics and Technology

Amanda Davison — Foods, Nutrition, and Health

Abrigail Sasse — Animal Sciences

•  The top 10 percent of records in a project area in the state are given a National 4-H Congress Blue Award Certificate each year. Certificate recipient is:

Emily Bakken — Foods, Nutrition, and Health

•  The "I Dare You" award is presented to 4-H’ers who have demonstrated qualities of leadership, excellence in character and effective future leadership. This year’s winners are:

Elizabeth Brooks, Lincoln

Clint Garey, Atlanta

Ashley Lamb, Latham

Nicole Tripplett, Middletown

•  The 4-H Key award is the highest award given. The qualifications are these: 16 years of age, minimum of three years of 4-H membership, submit a 4-H story and meet nine other requirements as verified by their leaders. This year’s winners are:

Emily Bakken, Lincoln

Hans Bishop, Atlanta

Elizabeth Brooks, Lincoln

Amanda Davison, Beason

Kyle Janssen, Middletown

•  Some 4-H’ers are chosen each year in special award categories. A book is presented to a 4-H’er with outstanding work, quantity, quality, years, citizenship, leadership, participation, skill acquisition and growth. The books are given in three age categories: 8-11 years of age, 12-14 and 15-19. A Blue Award is given to a 4-H’er deserving of repeat recognition in a category. In the 15-19 age category, the medal awards are nationally sponsored and may be received only once in each curriculum area.

 


[Photos provided by Amy Hyde, 4-H Youth Development]
[8- to 11-year-old award recipients:  (front from left) Matthew Runyon, Zach Huffer and Nichole Benz; (back from left) David Fulton, Ben Buse and Jenna Opperman.]

Outstanding Awards

Achievement

8-11 years old — Zack Huffer, Lincoln, book; Jenna Opperman, Lincoln, Blue Award

12-14 — Marty Oltmanns, Lincoln, book; Andrew Fulton, Lincoln, Blue Award

15-19 — Mary Healy, Middletown, medal; Abrigail Sasse, Beason, medal; Kyle Janssen, Middletown, medal; Amanda Davison, Beason, book; Emily Bakken, Lincoln, Blue Award; Amanda Davison, Beason, Blue Award

Animal Science

8-11 — David Fulton, Lincoln, book; Shelden Tibbs, Middletown, Blue Award

12-14 — Kim Turner, Atlanta, book; Andrew Fulton, Lincoln, Blue Award

15-19 — Elizabeth Brooks, Lincoln, medal; Emily Bakken, Lincoln, book; Abrigail Sasse, Beason, Blue Award; Emily Bakken, Lincoln, Blue Award; Amanda Davison, Beason, Blue Award

Electricity

12-14 — Marty Oltmanns, Lincoln

Environment/Natural Resources

8-11 — Mathew Runyon, Lincoln, book; Ben Buse, Lincoln, Blue Award; Zack Huffer, Lincoln, Blue Award

12-14 — Chris Ackerman, Lincoln, book

15-19 — Hans Bishop, Atlanta, medal; Hans Bishop, Atlanta, book; Kyle Janssen, Middletown, Blue Award

 


[12- to 14-year-old award recipients:  (from left) Elizabeth Carter, Kim Turner, Marty Oltmanns and Andrew Fulton.]

Food, Nutrition and Health

8-11 — Nichole Benz, Lincoln, book; Jenna Opperman, Lincoln, Blue Award

12-14 — Elizabeth Carter, Lincoln, book; Chris Ackerman, Lincoln, Blue Award

15-19 — Krista Ubbenga, Hartsburg, medal; Elizabeth Brooks, Lincoln, medal; Emily Bakken, Lincoln, book; Emily Bakken, Lincoln, Blue Award, Amanda Davison, Beason, Blue Award

 

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Home and Family

8-11 — Kristin Bishop, Atlanta, book; Nichole Benz, Lincoln, Blue Award

12-14 — Elizabeth Carter, Lincoln, book; Katelyn Beavers, Lincoln, Blue Award

15-19 — Abrigail Sasse, Beason, medal; Leila Ballinger, Atlanta, medal; Leila Ballinger, Atlanta, book; Amanda Davison, Beason, Blue Award; Emily Bakken, Lincoln, Blue Award

Leadership

12-14 — Andrew Fulton, Lincoln, Blue Award

15-19 — Emily Bakken, Lincoln, medal; Amanda Davison, Beason, book; Kyle Janssen, Middletown, Blue Award

 


[15- to 19-year-old award recipients:  (front from left)  Mary Healy, Amanda Davison and Emily Bakken; (back from left)  Kyle Janssen, Audra Ballinger and Leila Ballinger.]

Mechanics and Technology

8-11 — Mathew Runyon, Broadwell, book; Zack Huffer, Lincoln, Blue Award

12-14 — Marty Oltmanns, Lincoln, book; Andrew Fulton, Lincoln, Blue Award

15-19 — Hans Bishop, Atlanta, Blue Award

Personal Development

8-11 — Nichole Benz, Lincoln, book

12-14 — Chris Ackerman, Lincoln, book; Andrew Fulton, Lincoln, Blue Award

15-19 — Susanna Cluver, Latham, medal; Krista Ubbenga, Hartsburg, book; Emily Bakken, Lincoln, Blue Award; Leila Ballinger, Atlanta, Blue Award; Krista Ubbenga, Hartsburg, Blue Award; Amanda Davison, Beason, Blue Award

Plant and Soil Science

8-11 — Kristin Bishop, Atlanta, book

12-14 — Marty Oltmanns, Lincoln, book; Scott Ubbenga, Hartsburg, Blue Award

15-19 — Audra Ballinger, Atlanta, medal; Kyle Janssen, Middletown, medal; Emily Bakken, Lincoln, book; Mary Healy, Middletown, Blue Award; Hans Bishop, Atlanta, Blue Awards; Emily Bakken, Lincoln, Blue Award

 


[Club of the Year awards:  Leaders: Sherry Fulton (left) of Chester 4-H and Mary Jo Janssen of Middletown 4-H.]

Club Awards

Club – Agriculture — The Pioneers

Club Community Involvement and Global Awareness — Middletown 4-H’ers

Club Standards of Excellence — Atlanta Ag, Atlanta Town & Country, Beason Ag

Chester 4-H, Clover Kids, Middletown 4-H’ers, Millennium Clovers, The Pioneers

Clubs of the Year — Chester 4-H, Middletown 4-H’ers

Top Food Awards

Junior foods winner — Nichole Benz, Lincoln

Senior foods winner — Elizabeth Brooks, Lincoln

Herdsman of the Year

Daniel Fulton

Leaders recognized

Thirteen adult volunteers were recognized and honored at the Logan County 4-H Achievement Night. They were honored in the following categories:

First-year leaders — Denice Hildebrandt, Lincoln; Rebecca Rich, Emden

Fifth-year leaders — Kim Beavers, Lincoln; Lori Cross, Hartsburg; Brent Hellman, Emden; Gail Parson, Lincoln; Mark Rogers, Emden

Tenth-year leaders — Martha Green, Atlanta; Wesley Green, Atlanta; Teresa Hoerbert, Delavan; Donna Struebing, Hartsburg; Janet Turner, Atlanta

Twentieth-year leader — Deanna Voyles, Lincoln

Congratulations!

For a complete listing of the 4-H awards presented on Nov. 7 or for information on the Logan County 4-H program, please contact the Logan County 4-H office at 980 N. Postville Drive, Lincoln, IL 62656, or call (217) 732-8289.

[Logan County Extension news release
by Amy Hyde]


Ag Announcements

Olympia FFA Alumni news

[NOV. 8, 2002]  What do a tree, a chain saw and a TV have in common? The Olympia FFA Alumni chapter is selling raffle tickets for these items. The low-priced tickets provide a chance at a 36-inch Zenith color TV, a Stihl Farm Boss chain saw and a 1.5- to 3-inch diameter sunset red maple tree.

The chapter draws in members from McLean, Tazewell, Woodford, DeWitt and Logan counties.

Proceeds from the raffle will help support the agriculture program of the Olympia School District.

The drawing for the items will be Jan. 11, 2003, which is the tentative date for the FFA alumni banquet.

For more information on purchasing a raffle ticket or about the FFA Alumni chapter, contact any member of the chapter or call (309) 379-5911.

[News release]

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