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Weekly outlook

Crop forecasts

[OCT. 15, 2002]  URBANA — Based on harvest reports to date, there is some expectation that both the corn and soybean production forecasts will show modest increases in November, said a University of Illinois Extension marketing specialist.

"The markets for corn and soybeans should now turn more attention to the rate of consumption," said Darrel Good. "With year-ending stocks of both crops expected to be near minimum levels, the rate of consumption will have important price implications.

"A consumption rate above that needed to reach the projected level of use for the year would imply that higher prices are needed to slow the rate of use. A slow rate of use would imply a continuation of somewhat lower prices."

Good’s comments came as he reviewed the USDA’s October Crop Production report, which contained small surprises for both corn and soybeans. At 8.97 billion bushels, the corn production forecast was 121 million bushels larger than the September forecast and generally larger than expected. At 2.654 billion bushels, the soybean production forecast was unchanged from the September forecast and generally smaller than expected.

The larger corn forecast reflects a 1.8-bushel increase in the projection of the U.S. average yield. At 127.2 bushels per acre, the forecast is 11 bushels below the 2001 average yield. The month-to-month increase resulted from a 10-bushel-per-acre increase in the projection of the Iowa average and a seven-bushel-per-acre increase in the Minnesota projection. Projections for Illinois and Indiana declined by two bushels, while the projection for Ohio dropped by six bushels.

The U.S. average soybean yield is projected at 37 bushels per acre, 2.6 bushels below the 2001 average.

"To date, the pattern of corn production forecasts has followed the same pattern as that of last year — lower in September and higher in October," Good said. "There have been six years in recent history that have seen the same pattern. In five of those years, the production forecast was larger again in November. In one year, the forecast was unchanged in November.

"The pattern of soybean production forecast — higher in September and unchanged in October — has been rare. It occurred in 1977, and in both 1973 and 1982 changes in the forecast in October were small. In those three years, the November forecast was higher once, unchanged once and lower once."

Good noted that while the history of changes in production forecasts has some interest, it does not have much predictive capability.

"Each year is unique," he said. "Based on harvest reports to date, there is some expectation that both corn and soybean production forecasts will show modest increases in November."

For corn, there is general agreement that domestic uses for seed, food and industrial purposes will increase again this year. There is less consensus about domestic feed and residual use and exports. The USDA projects a decline of 212 million bushels (3.6 percent) in feed and residual use during the current year.

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"Indications of only a modest reduction in animal numbers and a projected 22 percent reduction in feed and residual use of other feed grains suggests that consumption of corn could be larger than projected," said Good. "In either case, the reduction in use would not be expected until the last half of the current marketing year. The first indication of the rate of domestic feed and residual use will come with the December Grain Stocks report, to be released on Jan. 10."

For exports, the USDA projects a 100-million-bushel (5 percent) increase during the current year. Through the first five weeks of the year, shipments are running 37 percent below those of last year. In part, the decline reflects interruptions in shipments at the Gulf and on the West Coast. Still, total export commitments (shipments plus outstanding sales) are running about 12 percent below the total of a year ago.

In the case of soybeans, the domestic crush is expected to decline only 25 million bushels (1.5 bushels) from the record crush of the past year.

"The major adjustment to the smaller supply is expected to come in exports," said Good. "At 850 million bushels, the USDA expects exports this year to be 21 percent smaller than shipments of a year ago. The continued increase in South American production is expected to fill the gap.

"To date, export shipments of soybeans are down about 20 percent from the total of a year ago, while total commitments are down about 7 percent."

The average cash price of corn in central Illinois has declined to the lowest level since late July, even though the basis has remained very strong.

"It is typically a weak basis at harvest and a quick recovery in that basis that produces a post-harvest recovery in cash prices," said Good. "The post-harvest recovery could be small this year. If current production and consumption forecasts are accurate, prices could languish in a relatively narrow range through the winter and then become more volatile in the spring."

Cash soybean prices in central Illinois recovered slightly following the October Crop Production report, but are at the lowest level since late June and are below the Commodity Credit Corporation loan rate.

"In addition to the rate of use, the soybean market will increasingly reflect the development of the 2003 South American crop," said Good. "A larger crop is already factored into the price structure, so that any threat to the crops there would be expected to push prices higher."

[U of I news release]

[OCT. 15, 2002]  URBANA — Now is the time for purebred cattle breeders to begin identifying bulls they plan to consign to the 2003 Illinois Performance Tested Bull Sale, said a University of Illinois Extension animal systems educator. The sale will be during the Winter Beef Expo on Feb. 20 at the Illinois State Fairgrounds Livestock Center in Springfield.

"The sale accepts older as well as yearling bulls, with the birth date limits from January 2001 to March 2002," said Dave Siebert, who is based at Extension’s East Peoria office. "The 2002 sale resulted in 104 bulls selling for an average price of $1,797."

Seibert noted that the rules and regulations for the 2003 sale will be almost identical to those used in 2002. As was the case with the 2002 sale, there will be mandatory Johne’s disease testing.

"However, brucellosis is the only other disease that the animals will have to be tested for," he said.

Nomination deadline and fees are three-tiered with the following dates and costs: Nov. 15, $75; Dec. 1, $100; and Dec. 15, $125.

For a complete copy of the rules and regulations plus a nomination form, contact Seibert at 727 Sabrina Drive, East Peoria, IL 61611; phone (309) 694-7501.

[News release]

[OCT. 15, 2002]  Researchers from the University of Illinois will present information on three current research projects being funded by the Dudley Smith Initiative.

When: Monday, Oct. 21, from 9 a.m. to noon

Where: Dudley Smith Farm, located off Route 29 between Taylorville and Pana

Subjects:

•  "Integrating Livestock into a Sustainable Cropping System" — A five-year project studying extended pasture rotations with livestock integrated into conservation-based row crop production.

•  "Opportunities in Energy and Agriculture" — This project is exploring elephant grass as a biofuel in Illinois.

•  "Risk, Consumer Behavior and Agricultural Community Response" — Researchers will evaluate how consumers assess risk associated with agricultural commodities and production practices.

Details about the projects can be found at http://www.aces.uiuc.edu/DSI/current.html.

For more information and detailed directions, please call (217) 287-7246.

[U of I news release]

Hartsburg corn plot results

[OCT. 14, 2002]  Fall brings with it many reports of yields, from both fields and plots. Many of these yields should be used together to select hybrids or varieties. Of course your personal experience should also play a key role in selections. Some of the value-added crops need to be looked at as well.

The Hartsburg Field was a cooperating site this year in one of the studies of value-added traits for corn. The same varieties were planted in multiple locations and will have statistics and economic data run on them at the University of Illinois. Grain samples will also be tested for specific traits. See the chart below for the unofficial, unreplicated yield numbers from Hartsburg without the value-added economics. You can check on contract premiums if you are interested in these varieties.

Other research projects at the Hartsburg Field have been harvested and sent to campus for yield data and analysis. These include nitrogen application based on amino sugar test and nitrogen and manure application rates. You will probably see some of this data at the winter agronomy offerings from around the state.

[John Fulton]

It’s almost time for
first fall frost in Illinois

[OCT. 12, 2002]  Leaves just starting to show some color, chrysanthemums and asters in bloom, the beginning of the harvest season, and cooler night temperatures all signal fall’s arrival in Illinois.

"The first fall frost usually occurs between Oct. 7 (northern Illinois), Oct. 14 (central Illinois) and Oct. 21 (southern Illinois). The Chicago area can expect frost by Oct. 14, a week later than the rest of northern Illinois, probably a result of the warmer urban setting and the moderating influence of Lake Michigan," says Jim Angel, state climatologist with the Illinois State Water Survey, a division of the Illinois Department of Natural Resources.

The average frost date is based on 1971-2000 averages. Although the actual date varies quite a bit from year to year, "frost usually occurs within two weeks of these dates," says Angel.

"Despite concerns about global warming, the first fall frost date has been occurring a little earlier at most Illinois locations since the early 1970s, suggesting somewhat cooler fall conditions," says Angel.

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Data from 13 long-term cooperative observer sites in more rural locations throughout Illinois indicate that the frost date is 16 days earlier in McLeansboro; 14 days earlier in Anna and Champaign-Urbana; nine days earlier in Hoopeston and Windsor; seven days earlier in Sparta; and five days earlier in Marengo, Walnut and Minonk. This pattern appears to be prevalent across Illinois, except for a slight trend toward frost three days later in Carlinville (west-central), one day later in Rushville (northeast), and no change in Mount Carroll and Aledo.

"There’s a good chance that Indian summer, a warm, dry spell after the first fall frost, will occur this year. If so, more mild weather will follow," concludes Angel.

[Illinois State Water Survey press release]

Fall fertilization programs
require careful preparations

[OCT. 12, 2002]  URBANA — As the fall harvest is completed, Illinois growers will soon turn to preparations for next year’s crop. And, according to Bob Hoeft, soil fertility specialist with University of Illinois Extension, one of the most important steps is to carefully prepare a fall fertilization program.

"Fall application of phosphorus is an acceptable practice on all but the sandy soils in Illinois," Hoeft said. "On sandy soils, it would be best to wait until spring to apply potassium. There is danger that fall-applied potassium fertilizer might leach down far enough so as to not be readily available for the newly planted crops next spring."

He notes that phosphorus can be applied on all soil types in the fall, because it will not leach even in sandy soils.

"Most of the phosphorus fertilizer used in Illinois is an ammoniated form, which contains nitrogen," he said. "This material nitrifies somewhat slower than most other nitrogen fertilizers, and there is limited risk of fall-applied ammoniated phosphate being lost in the spring. Those materials are not volatile and do not need to be incorporated into the soil."

Although applied nitrogen is acceptable in the northern two-thirds of the state, growers should use caution to ensure that the fertilizer has the greatest potential to be available for next year’s crop and the least potential to be lost to the environment. Those cautions include using the proper rate, applying it at the right time and selecting materials that are effective for fall application.

"University research has shown that, over the long term, the proper rate is 1.2 pounds of nitrogen per bushel of corn that the field will be expected to yield," Hoeft said. "This represents the total amount of nitrogen needed for that field. It is important to also take into account the amount of nitrogen that will come from legumes, manure and urea-ammonium nitrate solutions that might be applied with pesticides. All of those contributions should be subtracted from base rate."

Hoeft notes that the nitrogen rate can be reduced by 40 pounds per acre for corn planted after soybeans. At least 50 percent of nitrogen from manure will also be available for next year’s crop. Worksheets for figuring the rate are available in the Illinois Agronomy Handbook and online at http://web.aces.uiuc.edu/aim/IAH/ch11/nitro.html.

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"The majority of nitrogen in fertilizers sold in Illinois comes in the ammonium form," he said. "As long as it remains in that form, it is not susceptible to loss, even in the wettest conditions. Once it converts to nitrate, however, it becomes susceptible to denitrification and leaching losses when soils become excessively wet."

He points out that the conversion of ammonium to nitrate can be slowed by cool soils and the use of a nitrification inhibitor.

"Growers should not apply fall nitrogen for corn south of Illinois Route 16," Hoeft said. "North of that line, growers should wait until soil temperatures are less than 60 degrees Fahrenheit if a nitrification inhibitor is used or 50 degrees if no inhibitor is used. Irregardless of soil temperature, application should not start until Oct. 15 in the northern three tiers of counties and Oct. 21 between the third tier of counties and Route 16."

He notes that anhydrous ammonia is the most stable fertilizer for fall application because it is injected in a concentrated band. Ammonium sulfate can also be applied in the fall, but its application should be delayed until the soils are at or near freezing.

"If possible, growers should wait until late November or early December before applying ammonium sulfate," Hoeft said. "Urea or urea-containing products for corn should not be applied in the fall or winter. The risk of loss from fall or winter applications is substantial even when those materials are incorporated."

[U of I news release]

4-H takes over county windows

[OCT. 11, 2002]  Logan County 4-H clubs recently participated in a window display contest throughout the county as part of National 4-H Week activities.

Clubs that participated and display sites were Atlanta Town and Country, using a window at the Atlanta Museum Annex; Chester 4-H, at Abe Lincoln’s General Store in Lincoln; Cloverdale, Lincoln Red Cross office; Clover Kids, Deron Powell’s State Farm Insurance in Mount Pulaski; Hartem Clovers, Hartsburg State Bank; Middletown 4-H’ers, Middletown Junior High; Millennium Clovers, Heads R Turnin’ in Lincoln; and Wide-A-Wake 4-H, Action Rentals in Lincoln.

First place went to the Wide-A-Wake 4-H club for their window display at the Action Rentals store on Broadway Street in Lincoln. Second place was awarded to Hartem Clovers for their display at Hartsburg State Bank, and third place went to Cloverdale for their display at Lincoln’s Red Cross office.

In addition, the 4-H clubs had a poster contest. Katie Turner, a member of the Hartem Clovers, was chosen as the winner.

For additional information about the 4-H program in Logan County, individuals can contact the Logan County Extension office at 732-8289.

[News release]

[OCT. 9, 2002]  Section 14 officers, along with Meagan Wells, the 2002-2003 Illinois FFA treasurer, conducted visits Sept. 30-Oct. 4 to chapters throughout the section.

As the group traveled to 11 schools, Meagan presented a program on the many opportunities available in the FFA. The section officers helped out by sharing their own experiences and informing the members about various conferences and activities. After the program, FFA members filled out a goal card, as Meagan challenged them to set their goals high and strive to reach them.

A week of chapter visits would not be complete without Leadership Training School. On Wednesday, Oct. 2, all of the Greenhand FFA members and chapter officers came together at Athens High School for a night of learning and fun. The group was honored to have Mr. Dave Mouser, a motivational speaker and past state officer, to kick off the night.

Then, the section officer team took the respective chapter officers into a training session on their duties as officers. Meagan Wells stayed with the Greenhand members for a motivational session. As everyone came back together, the section officer team had a little bit of fun distinguishing the differences in proper and improper official dress. A meal was served, and then Meagan Wells gave her keynote address.

The week of activities filled with chapter visits and leadership training was a great success. The officers wish all of the FFA members in Section 14 and across the state the best of luck in accomplishing their goals this year and in the future.

[FFA news release]

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[Photos provided by FFA]

[The Hartsburg-Emden FFA helped the Logan County Sheriff's Department with a bike rodeo at the Emden School. The Sheriff’s Department explained to the kids about proper safety when riding a bike on the road.]

[The Hartsburg-Emden chapter received a visit Monday from section officers and the FFA state treasurer.]

[Hartsburg-Emden FFA officers and Greenhands attended Leadership Training School at Athens High School.]

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