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Weekly outlook
Post-harvest rally?
[OCT.
29, 2002]
URBANA — The elements that
generally result in a quick recovery in cash prices for corn
following harvest, namely a weak harvest basis and a significant
decline in cash prices into harvest, do not exist this year, said a
University of Illinois Extension marketing specialist.
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"The implication is that higher cash
prices will have to be generated more by higher futures prices than
by an improving basis," said Darrel Good. "Higher futures prices, in
turn, will require a change in market fundamentals — either a
smaller production forecast in November or a rate of consumption
that exceeds current projections.
"History is not on the side of a lower
production forecast. The November forecast has been equal to or
above the October forecast in 15 of the past 20 years and in five of
the past six years. Yield reports this year do not point to a lower
forecast."
Good’s comments came as he reviewed the
price situation for corn. Harvest-time corn basis in 2002 has been
very strong in many areas, perhaps record strong in some markets.
The small crop and resulting ample storage space account for part of
the strength in basis, as does strong domestic demand in some
markets. In addition, producer sales are generally reported as
light, as producers apparently believe that there is a strong
possibility of a post-harvest rally in prices.
In each of the past four years, there
has been modest to significant recovery in cash prices in central
Illinois — for example, from harvest lows. That recovery has
occurred by early November to early December. In 1998, the cash
price in that market reached a low of $1.72 in mid-September and
recovered to $2.14 by mid-November. In 1999, the cash price bottomed
at $1.67 in early October and rallied to $1.87 in early November.
In 2000, the harvest low of $1.51
occurred in mid-September, with a price rally to $1.98 by
mid-November. Last year, the harvest low of $1.79 came in the third
week of October, with a recovery to $2 by the first week of
December.
"The composition of the post-harvest
recovery in cash prices is important," Good noted. "In 1998, 22
cents of the 42-cent recovery in cash price came from basis
improvement. In 1999, 17 cents of the 20-cent recovery in cash
prices was from basis improvement. In 2000, 20 cents of the 47-cent
recovery was from basis improvement, and last year 13 cents of the
21-cent recovery was from basis again.
"The other similarity in the price
pattern in each of the past four years was the significant decline
in cash prices from spring, before harvest, into harvest. In each of
those years, the cash bid for harvest delivery peaked in March. The
decline from the spring peak ranged from 40 cents to $1 per bushel."
Good noted that the price pattern for
the 2002 crop has differed from that of the previous four years in
every respect. First, the harvest-time price, currently averaging
about $2.40 in central Illinois, is significantly higher than in
each of the previous years. Second, the price is about 50 cents
higher than harvest bids in the spring. Third, the harvest-time
basis bottomed at about minus 15 cents this year compared with minus
30 cents to minus 35 cents in the previous four years.
[to
top of second column in this article]
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"The elements that generally result in
a quick recovery in cash prices following harvest, namely a weak
harvest basis and a significant decline in cash prices into harvest,
do not exist this year," he said.
In the short run, Good added, the
burden of higher prices seems to fall to consumption. For the year,
the USDA has forecast a 6 percent increase in domestic processing
use of corn, reflecting an expected 15 percent increase in use of
corn for fuel alcohol.
"There is no reason to doubt the
projected increase, with monthly consumption figures confirming the
expansion," he said. "Exports of U.S. corn are expected to increase
by about 5 percent during the current year, to a total of two
billion bushels. Through the first eight weeks of the marketing
year, cumulative export inspections are about 28 percent less than
shipments of a year ago. The lack of shipments to South Korea is of
most concern, as the decline reflects ongoing exports from China.
"Unshipped sales as of Oct. 17 were 7.5
percent less than outstanding sales of a year ago. Again, smaller
sales to Asian destinations are of most concern. While it is still
early in the marketing year, there is some concern about the U.S.
export potential this year. It will likely require large imports by
Mexico and Canada to propel exports to the projected level."
Finally, the USDA projects a 3.6
percent decline in feed and residual use of corn during the current
marketing year. The projected decline reflects an expected reduction
in the number of animals fed and a decline in the amount of grain
fed per animal. The USDA’s Monthly Hogs and Pigs report released on
Oct. 25 confirmed a decline in the size of the breeding herd.
Based on the projected quarterly
pattern of livestock production, most of the decline in feed and
residual use would be expected to occur later in the marketing year,
said Good. The first indication of use will come from the Dec. 1
Grain Stocks report to be released on Jan. 10.
"While
prospects for quick recovery in cash corn prices do not appear as
likely as in recent years, the generally low level of U.S. and world
inventories should prevent a significant decline in prices in the
near-term," said Good. "It may be that prospects for the size of the
2003 crop in the United States will become the most important price
factor."
[U
of I news release]
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Commercial corn plot results
[OCT.
28, 2002]
2002 Logan County commercial corn
plot
State Bank, Scott
Wurth Family, Fort Trust Farms and U of I Extension cooperating
Planted: 5-29-02
Harvested:
10-22-02
Plot length: 600
feet; four 30-inch rows of each variety planted
Fertility:
177-69-120
Herbicide: 2.5
quarts Topnotch |
12-row border
from east |
|
|
|
|
(numbers may be off by .01 due to rounding
differences) |
Hybrid |
Test weight |
Wet weight |
Moisture |
Yield at 15% |
Difference from check |
FS 6863CL |
58 |
990 |
16.6 |
125.97 |
2.39 |
Check (NK N72-V7) |
57 |
1000 |
19.0 |
123.58 |
n/a |
FS 6432 |
56 |
1140 |
15.2 |
147.49 |
23.91 |
BoJac 5505 |
57 |
1070 |
17.6 |
134.51 |
-1.81 |
Check (NK N72-V7) |
56 |
1110 |
19.5 |
136.33 |
n/a |
BoJac 6110 |
58 |
1110 |
17.3 |
140.05 |
3.73 |
AgVenture 777 |
57 |
1020 |
16.6 |
129.79 |
-14.62 |
Check (NK N72-V7) |
56 |
1170 |
19.1 |
144.41 |
n/a |
AgVenture 813 |
58 |
1180 |
16.4 |
150.50 |
6.10 |
NK N68-K7 |
57 |
1150 |
16.3 |
146.85 |
2.27 |
Check (NK N72-V7) |
57 |
1170 |
19.0 |
144.59 |
n/a |
NK N65-M7 |
57 |
1020 |
15.8 |
131.03 |
-13.56 |
Diener 9269Bt |
58 |
1320 |
16.0 |
169.17 |
26.00 |
Check (NK N72-V7) |
57 |
1150 |
18.4 |
143.17 |
n/a |
Diener DB1091 |
56 |
1360 |
15.1 |
176.16 |
32.99 |
Campbell 6670 |
56 |
1100 |
15.1 |
142.48 |
-20.21 |
Check (NK N72-V7) |
58 |
1310 |
18.6 |
162.69 |
n/a |
Campbell 6675 |
57 |
1220 |
15.8 |
156.72 |
-5.97 |
DeKalb DKC60-D8AF |
57 |
1260 |
14.9 |
163.59 |
9.41 |
Check (NK N72-V7) |
57 |
1240 |
18.5 |
154.18 |
n/a |
DeKalb DKC60-15 |
58 |
1380 |
15.8 |
177.28 |
23.09 |
Horizon 73333BTG |
56 |
1120 |
17.0 |
141.83 |
-16.28 |
Check (NK N72-V7) |
58 |
1270 |
18.4 |
158.11 |
n/a |
Horizon 7426G |
58 |
1170 |
17.4 |
147.44 |
-10.66 |
Stine 9803 |
58 |
1230 |
17.0 |
155.76 |
-3.32 |
Check (NK N72-V7) |
58 |
1270 |
17.9 |
159.08 |
n/a |
Stine 9014BT |
60 |
1180 |
17.2 |
149.06 |
-10.01 |
Trisler 5145 |
56 |
1200 |
16.1 |
153.60 |
-7.98 |
Check (NK N72-V7) |
57 |
1290 |
17.9 |
161.58 |
n/a |
Trisler 5253BT |
57 |
1360 |
18.5 |
169.10 |
7.52 |
Wyffels W7303 |
59 |
1420 |
16.7 |
180.46 |
19.22 |
Check (NK N72-V7) |
58 |
1300 |
18.7 |
161.25 |
n/a |
Wyffels W7180 |
58 |
1370 |
15.5 |
176.62 |
15.37 |
Sun Prairie 2677 |
57 |
1130 |
15.7 |
145.33 |
-1.91 |
Check (NK N72-V7) |
56 |
1160 |
16.8 |
147.24 |
n/a |
Sun Prairie 2687 |
57 |
1060 |
18.5 |
131.80 |
-15.44 |
Asgrow RX740 |
58 |
1280 |
16.2 |
163.65 |
11.16 |
Check (NK N72-V7) |
56 |
1210 |
17.4 |
152.48 |
n/a |
Asgrow RX708YG |
58 |
1150 |
15.7 |
147.91 |
-4.58 |
LG Seeds LG2587 |
58 |
1240 |
15.8 |
159.29 |
12.11 |
Check (NK N72-V7) |
58 |
1175 |
17.9 |
147.18 |
n/a |
LG Seeds LG2585 |
57 |
1140 |
15.5 |
146.97 |
-0.21 |
Great Lakes 6358 |
55 |
1350 |
15.0 |
175.07 |
16.40 |
Check (NK N72-V7) |
57 |
1250 |
16.8 |
158.67 |
n/a |
Great Lakes 6259 |
59 |
1270 |
15.9 |
162.95 |
4.28 |
Pioneer 33D31 |
58 |
1110 |
17.4 |
139.88 |
-9.72 |
Check (NK N72-V7) |
57 |
1190 |
17.6 |
149.60 |
n/a |
Pioneer 33P67 |
58 |
1460 |
17.8 |
183.10 |
33.50 |
Crows 4908 |
57 |
970 |
15.4 |
125.20 |
-29.74 |
Check (NK N72-V7) |
57 |
1240 |
18.1 |
154.94 |
n/a |
Crows 5360 |
58 |
1140 |
15.6 |
146.79 |
-8.15 |
Golden Harvest H9247BT |
57 |
1420 |
16.9 |
180.03 |
28.62 |
Check (NK N72-V7) |
57 |
1200 |
17.3 |
151.41 |
n/a |
Golden Harvest H8906 |
57 |
1040 |
15.5 |
134.08 |
-17.33 |
Thanks
to the following for their cooperation and assistance:
State Bank of Lincoln
Fort Trust Farms
Scott Wurth Family
Cooperating Corn Companies
Syngenta
for providing check corn
Summary |
Top five hybrids based on yield |
Top five hybrids compared to check |
1. Pioneer 33P67, 183.10 |
1. Pioneer 33P67, +33.50 |
2. Wyffels W7180, 180.46 |
2. Diener DB1091, +32.99
|
3. Golden Harvest H9247Bt, 180.03 |
3. Golden Harvest H9247Bt,
+28.62 |
4. Wyffels W7180, 176.62 |
4. Diener DB9369Bt, +26.00
|
5. Diener DB 1091, 176.16 |
5. FS 6432, +23.91 |
Average
of hybrids: 152.99
Average
of check: 150.58
Average of plot: 152.19
Results of non-replicated
plots should always be used in conjunction with other plot results
and your own experience when selecting hybrids.
[John
Fulton] |
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Does
soybean cyst nematode
promote other diseases?
[OCT.
26, 2002]
URBANA — Although soybean
cyst nematode, SCN, ranks as the top cause for yield losses in
Illinois soybean fields, recent research indicates that it also
plays a role in the development and spread of other major diseases,
such as sudden death syndrome, SDS, and possibly brown stem rot, BSR.
|
"That’s bad news for Illinois farmers,
considering that SCN occurs in more than 80 percent of the soybean
fields in the state," said Terry Niblack, nematologist in the
Department of Crop Sciences at the University of Illinois. "While
SDS is fully capable of acting on its own, it now appears that SCN
hastens the development of symptoms from that disease and increases
the severity, leading to even greater yield losses."
She notes that BSR also has become more
widespread and severe in Illinois than in the past. Once again, it
appears likely that SCN has played a role in those changes
Such an interaction between the fungus
that causes BSR and SCN was not considered likely until recently,
when researchers at Iowa State University found that SCN can
actually break resistance to BSR.
"In addition, we have found that BSR is
now moving farther south in the state, at the same time that SDS has
been moving farther north," Niblack said. "Our old rules of thumb —
that BSR is only a northern problem and SDS is only a southern
problem — have been showing signs of breaking down."
To meet the challenge, collaborative
efforts are under way among researchers from the Department of Crop
Sciences and educators from University of Illinois Extension to
address the problems posed by those soybean disease interactions.
Work in the laboratory, greenhouse and the field at a number of
locations is focused on studying the interactions between SCN and
the fungi involved in SDS and BSR.
Major collaborators in the project on
SDS are plant pathologists Wayne Pedersen and Glen Hartman. Niblack
is also working on BSR with plant pathologists Dean Malvick and
Darin Eastburn. Soybean breeder Brian Diers is also contributing
resistant lines for the research project. Primary funding is
provided by the Illinois Soybean Checkoff Board.
[to top of second column in
this article]
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"In this research, we will be looking
at how SCN infection affects the development of foliar symptoms from
SDS and BSR," Niblack said. "We especially hope to find out exactly
how and why this interaction occurs."
Another part of the research will focus
on determining whether the interaction depends on the number of
nematodes present, the genotype of the fungus, the pedigree of the
soybean variety in a field or other factors that have not yet been
identified.
"We especially would like to find out
how the disease interactions affect management practices," Niblack
said. "Growers need to understand whether it is more important to
choose a variety with resistance to the nematode or to the fungus
that causes one of the other diseases. Even more problems would
arise if we determine that all three pathogens can interact in the
same field."
Based on the research up this point,
Niblack recommends that growers with SCN and SDS or BSR in the same
field should take care of the SCN problem first by growing a
resistant variety.
"This
strategy is based on the simple fact that SCN is always present in
the field reducing yields, regardless of the environment," she said.
"At the same time, SDS and BSR do not develop every year. As the
work on this problem continues, we should come up new management
practices that will help control the problem of interaction between
SCN and other soybean diseases."
[U of I news release]
|
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Low production may hamper
exploitation of higher prices
[OCT.
25, 2002]
URBANA — Relatively higher
grain prices compared with those in the past few years may not
offset lower yields caused by Illinois’ adverse weather conditions
this growing season, warned a University of Illinois Extension farm
management specialist.
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"While the summer’s price upswing has
been welcomed by producers, some may find that the higher prices may
not completely offset lower revenue caused by lower yields as a
result of adverse weather conditions," said Dale Lattz. "In
addition, higher grain prices will reduce the amount of farm program
payments. There most likely will be limited loan deficiency
payments, and no counter-cyclical payments are scheduled for this
fall."
Further aggravating the potential
economic bad news is the fact that the new farm bill does not
include provisions for market loss assistance and oilseed payments
that have been paid out in the past few years.
"Higher grain prices will offset much
of the drop in farm program payments for producers with average or
above-average yields," said Lattz. "This will not be the case for
producers with a shortfall in production.
"Even for producers with normal yields,
their cash flow will be altered considerably this year due to the
drop in farm program payments. Others who had been in the practice
of prepaying expenses before the end of the year may decide not to
this year."
[to top of second column in
this article]
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Lattz outlined the situation in a Sept.
30 report, "Cash Flows Tight on Many Grain Farms This Year Because
of Reduced Government Payments," that is part of the "Farm
Economics: Facts and Opinions" series from the University of
Illinois College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental
Sciences. The report is available at
http://www.farmdoc.uiuc.edu/manage/
newsletters/fefo02_18/fefo02_18.html.
He noted, however, that a significant
drop in grain prices could change the developing scenario.
"For some producers, crop insurance
proceeds will offset some of the loss in revenue due to lower
yields," said Lattz. "The drop in farm program payments also has
cash flow and income tax planning ramifications that producers need
to examine."
The full report includes tables
comparing estimated farm program payments for 2001 and 2002 for a
central Illinois grain farm. Lattz noted that differences in farm
program payments between 2001 and 2002 will vary from farm to farm
depending upon a number of factors.
"These
factors include base acres and yields for different program crops,
crop rotations, and actual yields," he said.
[U of I news release] |
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The next big step: a nitrogen
applicator with 20/20 vision
[OCT.
24, 2002]
URBANA — The fertilizer
applicator moving across the University of Illinois agricultural
engineering farms passed a crucial test in the past year — an eye
test.
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U of I’s fertilizer applicator
possesses something that you don’t usually find on farm machinery.
It has a high-tech eye, a single camera mounted roughly 12 feet in
front of the boom. Researchers tested the vision sensor last year
and found that it was extremely accurate in determining whether
plants are under stress due to a lack of nitrogen.
According to agricultural engineer Qin
Zhang, the sensor’s ability to detect nitrogen stress in plants was
comparable to leaf tests using a SPAD meter.
This year, Zhang said, the goal is to
merge the sensor with variable-rate technology. The result will be a
machine that uses its high-tech eyesight to scan the plants as it
moves across the field. The resulting data is then sent to a
computer that controls the variable-rate applicator. The applicator
varies the rate of fertilizer according to the nitrogen needs of
different plants. And it does the job on the fly in real time.
As Zhang and fellow agricultural
engineer Alan Hansen put it, such machines are the next big step for
variable-rate technology.
Currently, Hansen explained, farmers
must map the field in a separate pass, either aerial or on-ground.
Then the map is plugged into a computer and used to vary the rate of
fertilizer. But there is a considerable delay between creating the
map and actually applying the nitrogen.
With this new system, the images are
taken and processed literally seconds before the fertilizer is
applied.
To determine nitrogen stress in corn
plants, the applicator-mounted sensor analyzes the reflectance of
light coming from the plants, Hansen said. But this is no easy task.
The sensor must be able to distinguish the light bouncing off the
plant from the light bouncing off the background soil. What’s more,
it must be able to do the job under all kinds of environmental
conditions.
[to top of second column in this
article] |
"If you have a cloudy day, your camera
will see the crop differently," he pointed out. Therefore, the
sensor must be able to take into account the effect of a cloudy day
on light reflecting from the plants.
According to Zhang, the variable-rate
sprayer is able to change the rate of nitrogen being applied by
individual nozzles, making it possible to vary the rate on different
rows. The key is making sure that the right nozzle hits the right
plants with the right amount of fertilizer as determined by the
on-board sensor and computer.
U of I work on this project dates back
to 1997, when it was started by professors John Reid and Shufeng Han
with funding from the Case Corporation. Zhang is now leading the
effort to create a prototype applicator by 2003 — a machine that is
fully capable of scanning the crop, determining nitrogen stress and
varying the rate of fertilizer applied, all in a single pass. This
work is being funded by the Illinois Council on Food and
Agricultural Research.
According to Hansen, the new
developments in sprayer technology may have the potential of
reviving interest in variable-rate technology. As he explained, the
first wave of enthusiasm over variable-rate equipment in the 1990s
has waned because of economic considerations.
The selling point has always been more
accurate applications with variable rates. Increased accuracy would
bring savings in chemicals, not to mention less risk to the
environment.
"But there’s still some skepticism as
to the economic benefits of this technology," Hansen said.
Since the
early days, however, the technology has become more reliable and
computing power has soared, he added. Combine those advances with an
ability to vary rates on-the-go in real time, and the variable-rate
system may eventually find itself riding a new wave of interest.
[U of I news release] |
|
Soil temperature maps help with timing of nitrogen fertilizer
application
[OCT. 23, 2002]
Illinois farmers have a tool
to help them determine when to apply post-harvest nitrogen
fertilizer since daily maps of soil temperatures across Illinois are
available on the Web, at
http://www.sws.uiuc.edu/warm/soiltemp.asp,
from the Illinois State Water Survey, a division of the Illinois
Department of Natural Resources.
|
The maps are based on continuous
observations of soil temperatures at selected Illinois Climate
Network sites and are updated by 4 a.m. each day. "These maps serve
as a guide to general soil temperatures within a given region and
reflect existing temperature trends across the state as the fall
season progresses. Given the variability of temperatures within a
local area, it is important that farmers and applicators verify the
soil temperature of each field before applying nitrogen fertilizer
in the fall," says ISWS meteorologist Bob Scott.
The maps represent soil temperatures
observed between 9 and 10 a.m. the previous day across Illinois at a
depth of 4 inches below a bare soil surface and daily (midnight to
midnight) 4-inch bare soil maximum and minimum temperatures at the
same locations.
The Illinois Agronomy Handbook,
available from the University of Illinois College of ACES, states
that fall soil temperatures determine when ammonium-containing
nitrogen fertilizer may be applied without the occurrence of
excessive nitrification. The rate of nitrification is reduced at
soil temperatures of 50 degrees and below. Application of anhydrous
ammonia with a nitrification inhibitor can begin at soil
temperatures below 60 degrees. The soil temperature at 10 a.m. each
day is used in making the determination.
[to top of second column in
this article] |
Map users should be aware of current
soil temperatures and short- to long-term weather forecasts.
According to Scott, "Soil temperature fluctuations during fall may
result in periods with soil temperatures below the accepted
threshold for nitrogen application followed by an extended period
with soil temperatures above the accepted threshold. The date of the
first soil temperature below 50 each fall is often several weeks
before the last soil temperature above that value."
Other maps on the site show average
dates when soil temperatures drop and remain below 60 and 50,
respectively. Due to occasional periods of warm weather in winter,
the handbook does not recommend fall application of nitrogen south
of Illinois Route 16, roughly the southern third of the state.
The Web
resource, created through a grant from the Illinois Department of
Agriculture Fertilizer Research and Education program, also includes
soil temperatures at 4 and 8 inches under sod, air temperatures, dew
point temperatures, wind speed and direction, solar radiation,
potential evaporation, and precipitation in map and table formats.
[Press release from Illinois State Water Survey] |
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