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"The cattle market is trading at lofty
levels, which makes it even more vulnerable to uncertainties,
including a potential armed conflict and a still shaky recovery in
the general economy," said Chris Hurt. "In addition, continued
drought in the Mountain States, as well as the central and northern
Plains, could keep cow slaughter much larger than anticipated and
reduce the number of heifers retained for replacements."
Hurt's comments came as he reviewed the
beef cattle market outlook. The beef cow herd inventory was reported
as smaller in the USDA’s January 2003 report on cattle. Now at 32.9
million head, the beef cow herd has dropped 7 percent since 1996.
The current beef cow cycle is now 14 years old, with the previous
low on beef cow numbers occurring in 1989.
"This very long cycle will likely come
to a close later this year, as producers have retained about 1
percent more heifers for replacements, with the number of
replacements that will calve in 2003 up 3 percent," said Hurt.
The number of beef cows on Jan. 1 was
down a modest 0.5 percent. In the eastern Corn Belt, numbers were
down 1 percent, led by declines in Illinois (down 19,000 cows) and
Ohio (down 20,000 cows). Indiana, Wisconsin and Michigan each
reported some increase in beef cow numbers. Around the country,
small increases in cow numbers occurred in the western Corn Belt,
the southern Plains and the Southeast. All other regions had
decreases.
"The northern and central Plains as
well as the western United States all had decreases due to the
pervasive drought that limited pastures and forage supplies in
2002," said Hurt. "Current drought indicators show no signs of
improvement in most of these regions."
For the dairy herd, cow numbers were up
by 0.4 percent.
"Unfortunately, there is still no sign
that producers are reducing cow numbers in response to the dismal
milk prices in 2002, which were the lowest since 1980," said Hurt.
"In addition to a slightly higher number of cows in production,
heifers being retained for breeding stock were up 1 percent. The
continuation of higher milk cow numbers is a sign of even larger
milk supplies this year."
With declining beef cow numbers and
increasing milk cow numbers, the total number of cows is down only a
modest 0.3 percent. The 2002 calf crop was down only 0.2 percent.
[to top of second column in
this article]
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Cattle-on-feed numbers were down 8
percent as of the beginning of the year. While placements in both
November and December were moving back upward, the number of
market-ready cattle coming out of feedlots will be small in coming
months. Carcass weights in 2002 were up 2.8 percent and accounted
for most of the 3.8 percent increase in total beef production for
the year.
"So far this year, beef supplies have
been down nearly 3 percent, providing the primary reason for
finished cattle price strength," said Hurt. "First-half supplies
will be drawn from the number of steers weighing over 500 pounds --
down 1.2 percent -- and heifers weighing over 500 pounds not headed
back for replacements -- down 1.7 percent. Second-half supplies will
be drawn from the number of calves weighing less than 500 pounds on
Jan. 1 -- down 1.3 percent.
"Beef supplies for the rest of the year
will also be influenced by marketing weights, by weather and drought
conditions, and the resulting rate of cow slaughter."
Cold weather limited gains this winter
and resulted in some delays of cattle coming out of feedlots,
contributing to the 3-percent drop in January beef production. In
the last half of the winter, there will be some "catching up" of
marketings, which will contribute to larger supplies. Beef
production may be down about 1 percent in the first quarter and down
2 percent in the second quarter. Heifer retention could begin to
accelerate in the second half of the year and, combined with
declining cow slaughter, may also reduce total beef supplies by as
much as 3 percent to 4 percent.
"Choice cattle prices are expected to
dim somewhat in the next few weeks as slaughter supplies increase
from the cold-weather delays," said Hurt. "However, prices could
still reach new highs in the very lows $80s in late March and early
April. The decline in prices in the summer is not expected to be as
severe as normal, with prices dropping back into the lower $70s by
the end of the summer. Prices in the fall are expected to move into
the mid-to-higher $70s."
Hurt said calf prices in the fall of
2003 are expected to recover substantially compared with last fall.
"As an
example, Oklahoma City 500-550-pound steers averaged $88.38 last
fall," he said. "If finished cattle prices remain strong, and if
feed prices moderate with 'normal' weather this summer, calf prices
could return to the very high $90s to low $100s per hundredweight."
[University
of Illinois news release]
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"Prions are proteins that occur in the
brain of every animal," explained Jan Novakofski, a professor in the
U of I Department of Animal Sciences and one of three lead
researchers on the project. "In rare cases, these prions change into
something that causes brain cells to die -- a poison, if you will.
Once the process -- prion disease -- starts, it cannot be stopped,
and to date no one has found a way to inactivate these agents. Prion
disease in animals and humans is terminal."
Several years ago, the British beef
industry was devastated by mad cow disease, a prion malady. A number
of humans fell victim to the disease after eating beef infected with
mad cow disease and contracting the human version, Creutzfeldt-Jakob
disease, or CJD. This fall, chronic wasting disease began showing up
in deer populations in Illinois, likely migrating from Wisconsin,
where the disease has had a major impact on the hunting and tourism
industry.
"There are many unknowns about these
prion diseases," said John Killefer, an associate professor of
muscle biology in the Department of Animal Sciences and also a lead
researcher on the project. "No one understands where the animals are
picking up the disease and how they are passing it on."
Nohra Mateus-Pinilla, an assistant
professional scientist and epidemiologist with the Illinois
Department of Natural Resources' Illinois Natural History Survey and
also a leader in the prion project, says it is important to
establish what prompts the prions to turn bad in the first place and
how the process becomes infectious.
"All three of us were interested in
prion diseases, so we decided to put our expertise together and
develop a multidisciplinary research approach that would benefit the
livestock and agricultural industry, as well as conservation and the
protection of our natural resources," she explained. "Our work is
partly focused on chronic wasting disease, but we are also looking
at natural resistance to other prion diseases, like scrapie in sheep
and mad cow disease and its human form, CJD."
The project also involves researchers
from the U of I College of Veterinary Medicine and other state and
federal agencies.
"Our long term goal is to understand
mechanisms of CWD transmission and highlight possible intervention
and prevent strategies," Mateus-Pinilla said.
Four broad goals are driving the
research, the three explained. The first is the generation of a
"risk map" that will aid the Department of Natural Resources in
preventive management of CWD. Based on genetic data first developed
at the Rocky Mountain Laboratory in Colorado, the researchers' map
will indicate areas in Illinois where deer have a "genetic
susceptibility" to CWD.
"This map will overlap ecosystems
favored by deer and deer densities in urban and rural Illinois, as
well as CWD-positive and negative deer, land cover data, and
Illinois deer genetic fingerprinting," said Mateus-Pinilla. "This
information will help the development of science-based deer herd
management using spatial dynamics of CWD in a host-environment
framework."
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A second goal involves determining if
there are environmental reservoirs that favor development and
transmission of the disease.
"Scientific evidence suggests that
prions may persist in infectious environmental reservoirs outside
deer," said Killefer. "These reservoirs may include soil,
vegetation, insects or other animals. If we can determine where
these reservoirs are, such knowledge may provide critical control
points for intervention and prevention."
.Scientific evidence has already
demonstrated the ability of infectious prions to jump species. At
the same time, the researchers will address the transmission
dynamics of interspecies prion infection.
"The potential for interspecies
transmission highlights the need to assess the potential
transmission of prion diseases from wild species into livestock
species -- and vice versa -- as well as their transmission to
humans. The first step is therefore to understand mechanisms of
disease transmission," said Mateus-Pinilla.
The first three goals will help lay the
groundwork for the fourth -- the development of prevention
strategies.
"Studies in sheep have demonstrated
that certain genetic backgrounds are highly resistant to scrapie
infection," said Novakofski. "This type of genetic resistance has
not been identified in cattle or pigs. At the same time, mouse model
systems have shown that gene therapy can, in effect, knock the prion
protein out.
"We'll look at the potential of
developing a genetic prion 'knockout' in cattle that will be
naturally resistant to infection and unable to transmit the disease
to other animals or humans."
As the United States has remained
relatively isolated from prion disease problems until the spread of
chronic wasting disease from western deer populations into the
Midwest, there has been little funding. The three scientists see
that as changing.
One reason is the potential economic
impact on the Midwestern as well as the U.S. livestock industry if
CWD jumps species or if mad cow disease breaks out in the United
States. The standard approach -- and currently the only one -- is to
kill the infected animals and quarantine the area. In Canada, some
elk breeders whose animals were found to have CWD have not only been
banned from livestock production but also prohibited from growing
crops on their land.
Killefer noted that although pigs can
be infected by artificial means, no one has been able to demonstrate
the natural occurrence of prion diseases in swine. Any prion
outbreak among Illinois livestock could have serious economic
repercussions for the state's agribusiness sector.
"Mad cow
disease, although controlled in Great Britain and yet to reach the
United States, continues to spread in Europe and Asia," said
Novakofski. "It seems prudent to redouble our efforts to deal with
the prion diseases."
[University
of Illinois news release]
[Click here for related article, "CWD cases stand at seven in
Illinois."]
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Scholarship winners will be chosen
based on their commitment to agriculture as a future career,
academic performance, involvement in extracurricular activities,
financial need and work experience. The committee is particularly
interested in candidates who will return to the Logan County area to
pursue their careers.
Applications are available from the
Lincoln/Logan County Chamber of Commerce -- (217) 735-2385;
303 S. Kickapoo St., Lincoln, IL 62656 -- or at any high school in
Logan County.
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Completed
applications are due to the Lincoln/Logan County Chamber office in
Lincoln by Friday, Feb. 28. Applications will be reviewed soon
afterward, and winners will be notified of their award. Winners will
be recognized at the Logan County Ag Day breakfast on Wednesday,
March 19.
[News release]
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