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"This is a new tool that many producers
are looking forward to using," Gray said. "It comes at time when
crop rotation has not performed very well as a pest management tool
in many parts of Illinois because of the development of a variant of
the western corn rootworm that lays eggs in soybeans. As a result,
we have seen a significant increase in insecticide use throughout
much of the east-central part of the state."
He notes that the problems from this
variant form of the rootworm have continued to spread into parts of
northeastern and western Illinois, as well as sections of Michigan,
Indiana and Ohio.
"This new technology comes at a time
when soil insecticide use is very high, so growers are
understandably interested in using the resistant hybrids," Gray
said. "Soil insecticides generally cost about $16 per acre. If this
technology can be priced competitively with soil insecticide
products, I suspect there will be a lot of interest."
Gray cautions, however, that a critical
concern is how European customers will react to this genetically
modified product.
"Growers must have a market for what
they grow," he said. "That is the primary concern out there right
now. We know that groups like the Farm Bureau have asked growers to
keep this issue in mind. Many grain processors are also very
concerned about this issue and will undoubtedly pass on those
concerns to local elevators. A lot of this still remains to be
sorted out."
He advises that before making their
planting decisions growers should contact their local elevators
about whether or not this new genetically modified corn will be
accepted.
[to top of second column in
this article] |
"It is important to understand that we
have a major European corn gluten market," Gray said. "This market
is especially important for many growers in the east-central part of
Illinois. There are likely to be at least some elevators that will
refuse to accept these transgenic hybrids. It could well turn out
that much of the acreage planted to this new technology this year
will be in the western Corn Belt, where most of the production is
used for livestock feed."
Gray emphasizes that growers who
purchase corn rootworm Yield Gard hybrids will be required to plant
at least a 20 percent refuge of non-transgenic corn.
"There are some significant differences
from the 20 percent refuge used with Bt corn for European corn
borers," he said. "One of the most significant differences is that
the refuge must be placed within the field of transgenic rootworm
hybrids or directly adjacent to the field."
He points out that these tightened
rules are needed because of the considerable differences in the
mating behaviors of corn rootworms and European corn borers.
"Growers
will be required to sign an agreement through the distributor when
purchasing transgenic rootworm hybrids," Gray said. "If growers
violate those rules, we could easily lose the advantages from this
important new technology."
[University
of Illinois news release]
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"Pork producers can't wait to
put low hog prices behind them, but the market this year has been
slow to respond," said Chris Hurt. "Help should be on the way,
although the spring rally may not be as strong as many had hoped."
Hurt noted that producers are
weary of losing money. In 2002, prices for 51 percent to 52 percent
lean hogs averaged about $35 for the year, and estimated costs of
production were $38.60 per live hundredweight. Losses reached an
estimated $9.60 per hog.
"The largest losses came in the
final quarter of the year, when they were over $8 per live
hundredweight, or $21 per head," said Hurt. "The situation is
somewhat better in the first quarter of 2003, with prices expected
to average near $36 and losses trimmed to an estimated $3.50 per
hundredweight."
Disappointing prices in the
first two months of 2003 stem from a larger supply of hogs than had
been expected based upon USDA inventory reports. Pork production in
the first quarter of the year was expected to be only slightly
higher than during the same period last year. However, in January
and February, pork production has averaged 2.4 percent higher.
"Some moderation in slaughter
rates can be expected in March, so that the number of hogs coming to
market will be closer to even with year-previous levels," said Hurt.
"By spring, hog supplies could be down about 2 percent, based upon
last fall's farrowing numbers."
The USDA's "Monthly Hogs and
Pigs" report is also providing statistical support for slaughter
supplies to be lower in the spring. The size of the pig crops in
October, November and December (representing spring slaughter) was
down over 2 percent.
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this article]
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"Hog prices should be on the
verge of a spring rally that could take live hog prices from near
the mid-$30s at the start of March to the lower-$40s by the end of
May," said Hurt. "If supplies drop as much as 2 percent for the
spring quarter, as USDA reports suggest, prices could average near
$43. However, a more realistic objective right now is an average of
$40 for the second quarter."
Summer supplies will be drawn
from sows farrowed this winter, when producers said they would
reduce numbers by 1 percent. If producers follow through, summer
supplies will be only modestly lower, and prices for the summer
quarter would average a bit under $40.
Data continue to point to a
breeding herd that is dropping slowly. Farrowing intentions for the
spring have been estimated at down 3 percent, and recent monthly
reports have shown the number of females bred in November, December
and January to be down by 2.7 percent, helping to confirm this
magnitude of reduction. If so, pork supplies could continue to drop
modestly into the final quarter of 2003, with prices averaging in
the mid- to higher $30s.
"The best news for now is that
losses are likely to be nearly over as the spring price rally sets
in," said Hurt. "However, prices cannot be expected to be high
enough through the year to provide much more than a break-even level
on average.
"Production costs may drop from near $40 per hundredweight at the
start of 2003 to closer to $38 with lower corn prices, assuming
near-normal corn yields this fall. Hog prices, on the other hand,
are expected to average about $39 for the year. After the large
losses experienced last year, it appears that a break-even year in
2003 will not enable producers to recover from those losses."
[University
of Illinois news release]
|
|
"Using the latest digital equipment,
the staff at local offices can take high-quality images of the plant
and pest problems," said Dennis Bowman, project coordinator and crop
systems educator at the Champaign Extension Center. "The images,
along with information about the problem, are then submitted to the
appropriate experts. Last year, more than 20 percent of the samples
were diagnosed within two hours of submission and nearly 75 percent
within 48 hours."
Bowman notes that the service is now in
its third year of statewide operations and is provided free through
the local Extension offices.
"In 2002, more than 700 people in every
part of the state received answers to their plant and pest problems
through the Distance Diagnostics System," Bowman said. "We have more
than 50 Extension educators, specialists and U of I faculty
available through this system to provide their diagnosis for almost
every problem."
He points out this imaging technology
allows every Extension office in the state to have almost instant
access to the diagnostic skills of those experts.
[to top of second column in
this article]
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"We have an unsurpassed range of
available experts," Bowman said. "The group includes highly trained
specialists with expertise in field crops, forage crops, turf,
fruits, commercial vegetables and home pest problems."
He adds that the system has been
further upgraded this year to provide even better service to
Extension clients.
"The changes
include improved systems reports and added printer-friendly forms
that will speed up the process," Bowman said. "Other internal
upgrades allow for a better search function and improved
notification of undiagnosed samples. As a result, we are now
responding faster than ever with answers to the many plant and pest
problems that people submit to us."
[University
of Illinois news release]
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|
Gardner, who is a distinguished
university professor and chair in the Agricultural and Resource
Economics Department at the University of Maryland, is a former
president of the American Agricultural Economics Association and
received the group's Distinguished Policy Contribution Award in
1994. He also served as USDA assistant secretary for economics from
1989 to 1991. Gardner is not related to Leonard and Lila Gardner.
After earning his undergraduate degree
at the U of I in 1964, Gardner received his Ph.D. in economics from
the University of Chicago. He is the author of numerous books and
articles, including "American Agriculture in the Twentieth Century:
How it Flourished and What it Cost," published in 2002 by Harvard
University Press.
The lecture
is free and open to the public.
[University of Illinois news
release] |
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