Obama competitive against McCain with key voters

[May 28, 2008]  WASHINGTON (AP) -- Barack Obama has done poorly in the Democratic primaries with women, Catholics and others who will be pivotal in this fall's presidential election. Yet early polling shows that with several of these groups, he's competitive when matched against Republican John McCain.

A look at voters who have been closely contested in recent presidential elections -- or veered from one party to the other, making them true swing groups -- shows a significant number have leaned toward Obama's rival, Hillary Rodham Clinton, in the primaries. Besides women and Catholics, these include the elderly, the less educated and suburbanites, leading Clinton to argue that this makes her the Democrats' stronger candidate for the fall campaign.

Yet Obama's performance with these voters in the primaries doesn't necessarily mean he'd do poorly with them in the general election, assuming he nails down the last few convention delegates he needs to win the nomination.

Polls this month show the Illinois senator leading McCain among women, running even with him among Catholics and suburbanites and trailing him with people over age 65. Results vary by poll for those without college degrees. And though Obama trails decisively with a group that has shunned him against Clinton -- whites who have not completed college -- he's doing about the same with them as the past two Democratic presidential candidates.

Obama is doing well against McCain with groups he has dominated in the primaries. Polls show him ahead of the Arizona senator with young people and college graduates, though the results vary from poll to poll among independents.

To be sure, Obama's poor performance with some groups in the primaries cannot be ignored. His task of wooing them could be complicated by McCain's attempts to appeal to middle-of-the-road voters and by the strong emotions Obama's long-running competition with Clinton has aroused. In recent contests, only half her supporters have said they would vote for Obama against McCain in the fall.

"I won't vote, or I'll go for McCain," said Maureen Brown, 53, of Philadelphia, a Clinton supporter who said she thinks Obama is too inexperienced. "Our options are pretty bad."

Yet Election Day is more than five months away, with tons of campaign money yet to be spent trying to influence voters like Brown who by then will be more focused on party identification and issues than they are today.

Obama's aim won't necessarily be to win majorities with the swing groups Clinton has dominated. Rather, he'll want to do well enough with them that when combined with the well educated, blacks, the young and other groups that are his strength, he'll snare the electoral votes he needs.

Women have preferred Clinton over Obama by 7 percentage points in this year's Democratic primaries, according to exit polls of voters. But when matched against McCain this month, Obama was ahead among women by 5 points in the Gallup Poll, 13 points in a poll by Quinnipiac University and 20 points in a survey by CBS News and The New York Times.

"I don't think those women voting for Hillary Clinton in the primaries will find John McCain more attractive" than Obama, said Mark Watts, a Democratic pollster.

Women voted for John Kerry by just 3 points in the 2004 general election, but favored fellow Democrats Al Gore in 2000 and Bill Clinton in 1996 by larger margins.

White women are especially in play in November, and they have voted for Hillary Clinton over Obama by a decisive 24 points. Polling this month shows mixed results over whether Obama or McCain is ahead with this group.

They leaned solidly toward President Bush in 2004, split about evenly between Bush and Gore in 2000, and tilted slightly toward President Clinton in 1996.

In addition:

• Though Obama trails Hillary Clinton by 25 points among Catholics in the primaries, he and McCain are dividing them about evenly in national polls. Catholics, a quarter of the 2004 electorate, backed Bush narrowly that year, leaned slightly to Gore in 2000 and heavily toward President Clinton in 1996.

• Obama leads McCain slightly among suburban residents, though he narrowly trailed Hillary Clinton with these voters. This group was nearly half of all voters in 2004 and favored Bush slightly that year and in 2000, while President Clinton had the edge in 1996.

• People without college degrees are tilting toward Obama over McCain, even though they have preferred Hillary Clinton in the primaries. Whites who haven't finished college have favored Clinton over Obama in the primaries by 30 points, and prefer McCain over Obama, by up to 20 points in the Gallup Poll. Yet that's in the range of recent Democratic losses with this group -- Bush won them by 23 points in 2004 and 17 points in 2000, while GOP candidate Bob Dole won them narrowly in 1996.

• Obama trails Clinton by 24 points among voters age 65 and older. McCain is well ahead of Obama in the Gallup and Quinnipiac polls, but they're about even in the CBS/Times poll. The elderly leaned by small margins toward Bush in 2004, Gore in 2000 and President Clinton in 1996.

For Republicans who have long dominated among men and whites, the place you start looking to capture votes from Democrats is those who have stayed with Hillary Clinton and culturally conservative Democrats, like working-class white voters, said GOP pollster Neil Newhouse.

In an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll last month, about a quarter of Clinton supporters and one in six white Democrats who have not finished college said they would back McCain should Obama be the Democratic nominee, with roughly a quarter of each undecided.

"That provides us with a target-rich environment," Newhouse said.

The exit poll data is based on responses from more than 44,000 voters in 33 states that have held Democratic primaries this year; nearly 14,000 people who voted nationally in 2004; about 13,000 who voted in 2000; and about 16,000 who voted in 1996. The margin of sampling error for each was plus or minus 1 percentage point, larger for some subgroups. Also included were figures from national polls conducted this month by Quinnipiac, Gallup, and CBS with the Times.

[Associated Press; By ALAN FRAM]

Associated Press Director of Surveys Trevor Tompson and AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.

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